Economic growth in the first quarter has hit new highs since the crisis

Figure 12,004 Annual GDP Growth Trend chart (%) 1, the economy has not "overheated" last year two quarter, China's macroeconomic rebound quarterly. In the first quarter of this year, the gross domestic product of 8.0577 trillion yuan, according to comparable calculation, year-on-year growth of 11.9%, faster than the last quarter of 1.2%, reached a new high point of this round of economic recovery. Among them, primary add value 513.9 billion yuan, increase 3.8%, secondary add value 3.9072 trillion yuan, increase 14.5%, third industry add value 3.6366 trillion yuan, increase 10.2%.　　Secondary growth has increased markedly, driving the economy as a whole quickly pulled up. Rapid growth in the first quarter, affected by the lower base of the same period last year. Although this growth rate is higher than the average of the same period in the last decade, if the 2008-year first-quarter base period, the average growth in the first quarter of the last two years was 9%, below the 2000-2009 average growth of 1.2%.　　Judging from this, the current economic growth is still in a reasonable range, there is no social view of some of the "overheating" situation. 2, the rapid recovery of industrial production in the first quarter, the national scale of industry above the increase in the value of 19.6% year-on-year, faster than the 14.5% year-on-year. Has the following characteristics: (1) Heavy industry growth continues to be higher than light industry.　　Since June 2009, heavy industry has grown more than light industry for 10 consecutive months, with heavy industry growing 22.1% per cent in the first quarter and light industrial growth of 14.1%, a difference of 8%. (2) Industrial production activity is becoming more and more active. At present, most of the daily output of major industrial products has been restored to the first half of 2008, the output increased by 20.8%, railway, highway freight volume and above the port throughput also achieved rapid growth, the growth rate reached 18%, 15.9% and 22.2% respectively.　　At the same time, sales of industrial products reached 97.5% per cent, up 0.5% from a year earlier. (3) Obvious improvement of economic benefit. As a result of vigorous production and management activities, product sales rate, corporate efficiency continued to improve. According to statistics bureau figures, the first quarter of the country 24 regions of the industry to achieve profit of 690.8 billion yuan, an increase of 102.6%.　　In 39 industrial sectors, 38 industry profits have risen year-on-year. (4) Increased production confidence. The index of entrepreneurial confidence rose to 135.5 in the first quarter, the highest level since the two quarter of 2008.　　The people's Bank entrepreneur Questionnaire survey showed that 5000 enterprises macro-economic index was 45.9%, up 2.7% from the previous quarter, and has rebounded 4 consecutive quarters after reaching rock bottom in the first quarter of 2009 years. 3, three major demand structure improvement in the first quarter, the high demand for investment fell, consumer demand continued to good, net exports recovered markedly, the three major demand for economic growth contribution has improved. Initial estimates, the first quarter of the final consumption of GDP growth contribution rate of 52%, and the basic flat in 2009, capital formation of GDP growth rate of 57.9%, compared with 2009 a sharp decline of 34.4%; NET outThe contribution rate to GDP growth was 9.9%, up 34.9%.　　At present, the contribution rate of three major demands to economic growth is gradually moving towards the normal level, and domestic demand continues to be an important engine of economic growth. (1) High demand for investment fell. In the first quarter, total investment in fixed assets grew 25.6% year-on-year, down 3.2% from a year earlier, and has been slowing for three consecutive quarters since the two quarter of 2009 and is returning to a reasonable interval. Among them, the government investment obviously shrinks, the social investment vigor strengthens. In the first quarter, investment in central projects Rose 9.1% Year-on-year, down 21.3% from a year earlier, while private-sector investment rose by as much as 41.6%, up 13.9% from a year earlier, strengthening the endogenous impetus to invest in sustainable development.　　At the same time, real estate investment rebounded strongly, the first quarter of real estate development investment growth of 35.1%, faster than a year earlier 31%, supporting the urban fixed assets investment continued to maintain a high level of operation. (2) The steady and rapid growth of consumption. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 3.6374 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.9%, up 2.9% from a year earlier, excluding the price factor, the actual growth of 15.4%. First, housing, automobiles and other consumer hot spots continue to heat up. Commercial housing sales grew 34.2% year-on-year, driving related furniture consumption growth 37.6%, car sales reached 4.61 million, compared with last year's strong sales of four quarters growth of 15.9%. Second, home appliances, cars to the countryside and the old for new policies to expand the relevant consumer goods, home appliances to the countryside product sales 16.03 million units, than last year four quarter growth 16.8%, home appliances to old for new sales than last year four quarter growth 61.6%.　　Third, tourism, information, culture and other service consumption development momentum is good, the national tourism income significantly increased, film, performance and other cultural consumption of the hot situation. (3) The import and export situation continues to improve. In the World economic recovery, the main trading partner economic rebound, the impact of domestic foreign trade policies, and other factors, China's imports and exports have been growing for 5 consecutive months, the first quarter of the total import and export 617.85 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 44.1%, compared to four quarters accelerated 34.9%. Among them, export growth of 28.7%, import growth of 64.6%, imports and exports exceeded the same level in 2008. Imports grew more rapidly than exports, leading to a drop in the surplus, which was cut by $47.9 billion a year and a 7.24 billion-dollar deficit in March. From the product structure, the mechanical and electrical products export growth is strong, the first quarter of exports increased by 31.5%, higher than the total export growth rate of 2.8%, in total exports accounted for increased to 59.8%; labour-intensive exports fell, March textiles,　　The export growth of toys was lower than overall 17.4 and 9.8%, and clothing and footwear exports showed a decline of 19.8% and 6.5%. 4, the price level of a small increase in the tail-cutting factors, cost-driven, the impact of imported inflation, a seasonThe price of our country appears moderate upward trend, the social inflation expectation further strengthens. First, consumer prices rose year-on-year. In the first quarter, consumer prices rose 2.2% year-on-year, cities rose 2.1% and rural areas rose 2.4%. Among them, because of the spring festival and disaster factors, to food, fresh vegetables, fresh fruit for the representative of food prices rose faster, to 5.1%; In addition, real estate sales led to higher residential prices, up 2.9%. Food and residential prices in the first quarter led to a 2.1% rise in CPI. Second, the production price rises faster. By the international commodity prices high, the domestic market demand increased, currency liquidity and other factors, the first quarter, factory prices rose 5.2% year-on-year, from the chain of view, March rose 0.5%; raw materials, fuel, power purchase prices rose 9.9% year-on-year.　　The sharp rise in PPI has increased the pressure on cost-driven price increases. While affirming the achievements of economic development, we must see that there are still many contradictions and difficulties in the process of economic recovery, the foundation is still fragile and the environment is still more complex. One is that global demand remains inadequate, the developed countries, represented by the United States, because of their own economic development requirements and political pressure, frequent trade protectionism measures against China, China's trading environment is not optimistic; the second is the domestic drought, low temperature and other agricultural disasters frequently, to food as the representative of food prices upward pressure increase, International energy, commodities such as metals and agricultural products rose more than expected, the risk of imported inflation in China increased, social inflation expectations strengthened; third, heavy industry growth faster than average, the first quarter of high energy consumption industry investment growth faster, crude steel, cement, 10 kinds of non-ferrous metals and other investment products output year-on-year growth of 20.3%- 36%, led to electricity, oil and other energy consumption increased, the task of reducing emissions is arduous, the structural contradictions of economic development is difficult to alleviate in the short term; four is the real estate market price rose too fast, March the country 70 large and medium cities housing sales rose 11.7% year-on-year, new residential sales price rose 14.2% New commodity housing prices rose 15.9% year-on-year. Wenzhou, Sanya, Haikou and other land prices rose to 20%-65%. High housing prices not only squeeze the residents of other consumption, causing social discontent, but also to the economic operation has brought potential risks.