Economic recovery is expected to continue to rebound market will remain

Recently, the stock market in the twists rebound new highs, more and more empty differences, the market trend is bewildering. 　　China Securities News reporter interviewed the Northeast Securities Financial and Industrial Research institute Director Shing. China Securities newspaper: liquidity or is not the main factor in determining the market?　　Is there an excessive to performance-driven condition? Shing: The judgment of the market deduction or should go back to the starting point to see more objective. First, the market has a oversold desire to rebound; second, the market has an expectation of economic recovery; Third, there are varieties of undervalued values in the market. As long as the above points, even if there is no liquidity factors, the market will continue to be good. And above, just is the Chinese a-share market in 1664 point after the market starting point. Therefore, it is not so much liquidity to promote the market interpretation, rather than the market is to stand in the development of the starting point, and in time to go through a process. Liquidity, the persistence of positive policies, is merely a statement in the market. China has nearly 2 trillion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserves, a few 10 trillion dollars in bank balances, liquidity conditions are always there, but why can not these liquidity become a real capital investment, into the real economic liabilities or assets? The key is the lack of investment benefits in a recession. If the liquidity drive is considered to be a market bubble, there is a problem of either a drive or a dual drive.　　Otherwise, the market is a heavy drive, that is, the driving force of economic change. China Securities Daily: Northeast Securities January Report Forecast 2009 A-share high of 2,700 points, to deal with the new changes in the environment, or to make adjustments?　　Which investment line can be concerned about in the second half? Shing: The market is still running within our forecast range. We will make a corresponding strategic analysis of the changes in the economic situation of logical starting point adjustment: Is the current market is still in the economic recovery of the expected process, or in the realization of the economic recovery stage?　　We are looking forward to the high point, but still insist that the rebound process based on the economic recovery is still in progress, even including a necessary market adjustment stage.　　We are concerned about low interest rate inertia assets, especially large financial assets, resource price-sensitive assets such as oil, petrochemical and so on, economic recovery closely follow the category of assets, such as large investment related assets, reorganization of assets and so on. China Securities Daily: Is it necessary to introduce policies to stimulate consumption? 　　What should be the layout of consumer stocks in anticipation of policy stimulus? Shing: Early fiscal policy play an effect will have a lag, now the society is too impetuous, the roar of the data to wait for the introduction, without any logic inference behind the interpretation, too straightforward, it is difficult to see the economic process or behind the truth. In fact, there is a big blind spot in the view of macro-economy, that is, the performance evaluation of local government investment and the attitude towards macroeconomic data. At present, the local government to the central government's macro-fiscal policy to follow up a great deal of hesitation, the impact of their own investment to stimulate the economy has not been very fullThe affirmation that it is bad for the economy to run signals and attitudes. It may be better to jump out of the consumer policy to see income policies. China's continued growth in consumption cannot be underpinned by a lack of expected income growth. At present, the root of China's consumption problem is income and social security. In the early days of economic downturn or recovery, income growth will be restricted by social financial resources, enterprise benefits and so on, the society will have limited financial resources into the process of economic revitalization, enterprises will also put the benefits in the first place, can not expect in the operating process of meager profit, Society and enterprises can greatly increase the level of social income. The income improvement provided by the temporary social tax and the transfer expenditure policy is not enough to support the rapid growth of social consumption.　　The move to stimulate Chinese consumption is laughable without changes in income policies and real income levels.　　China Securities Daily: is the real estate industry entering a recovery period? Shing: The current real estate consumption is mainly rigid demand has been suppressed nearly 10 months after the outbreak of release, it is the real estate industry to inventory, but whether it can continue to be seen. In addition, China's real estate industry is to choose the high level of the revival of housing prices, or to choose the appropriate price level of revitalization, the market demand for people without the right to speak, this right in the hands of the Government and property developers.　　Whether the recovery depends on the overall level of housing prices trend.　　China Securities Daily: China's manufacturing purchasing managers index PMI has rebounded for 5 consecutive months, but the output and Canton Fair orders have dropped markedly, what do you think of the data? Shing: Macroeconomic data recovery, including a number of subjective color of the forecast data to the good, should be the economic overall positive changes in the embodiment. The reverse characteristic of economic data structure shows that this kind of economic consistency has not been confirmed in time. On the other hand, the timing and structural imbalance of the overall trend of investment, consumption and exports are also explained. If the Chinese economy can achieve conventional growth in this structurally unbalanced state, it will be the miracle of China's economic recovery or reversal.　　But this kind of miracle is too difficult.　　China Securities Daily: Statistics show that the first quarter of the performance of listed companies fell about 20% Year-on-year, but the chain showed significant growth, how do you interpret the listed company quarterly? Shing: the 1 Quarterly in 2009, the interpretation of the economy or market needs is different. The interpretation of the economy, as long as the data chain growth can explain the economic recovery and the positive direction of development. There are two needs for the market: one is to improve the data to support the market rebound expectations, the target has been achieved; second, the data can correspond to the rebound market to the fundamental support of the transformation, this also needs to make further verification of the market. The question here is whether the logic process has been reversed for the soft and hard logic of the Chinese economy. Why is it upside down?　　If it is a kind of logic reversal, it is still wait until the logic to form the consensus of society! China Securities Daily: Do you think the final outcome for China is inflation or deflation?　　What other pieces of monetary policy are available? Shing: That's a good questionProblem。 On the one hand, commercial banks lent more money, the society's liquidity is abundant, on the other hand CPI, PPI both negative growth. So there should be a strong expectation of inflation in terms of the number of liquid currencies, and the reality of deflation in price performance. This shows that there is a considerable problem in the conduction of currency to price. The central bank and the government should focus on these issues, not just the amount of money and price levels.　　If from the currency to the price can not be effectively transmitted, at least to explain the background of currency delivery analysis is not transparent, timing is not very effective. At present, the excess reserve ratio of commercial banks is declining, which is relative to the expansion of the central bank's currency distribution. If the reserve ratio of commercial banks is low, it may be necessary for the listed commercial banks to consider market or non market financing to enrich the bank capital. By that point, the monetary movement of the entire financial system might be a bit messy. And not to mention the positive monetary policy, commercial banks themselves have to consider the issue of effective order. So now it's not about inflation or deflation, it's about the financial order that banks have to face, taking into account the safety of banks, and then seeing the reality of inflation or deflation.