Economic recovery needs to tamp down micro-Foundation

-Chen Bo The debate over whether macroeconomic sustainability has continued since May. Not only is the market for April's macroeconomic data full of expectations, but more importantly, April is also the beginning of the two quarter, whether the start is in line with expectations, will be related to the "first quarter economic bottoming, a significant rebound in the two or three quarter" is accurate.　　From the recent disclosure of the April macroeconomic data, price indices, import and export, and so on basically meet the expectations, but in the micro-enterprise capital chain, electricity generation and so on, the foundation needs to be further tamping. As expected, the first half of the index also fell year-on-year. According to the data, April PPI fell 6.6% from a year earlier, up 0.6% per cent from last month. suggests that domestic demand recovery is not enough to fully digest excess capacity. In the first half of last year, commodity prices were at all-time highs, and a higher base also led to a sharp fall in PPI. CPI fell 1.5% per cent year-on-year in April, up 0.3% per cent from last month.　　It is expected that the CPI will gradually rise to zero or positive levels in the future after the warping effect fades away. In terms of credit, it is basically back to normal orbit. Following the first quarter of the 4.58 trillion yuan, the $591.8 billion in April was relatively close to the real demand level. Bill financing accounted for less than 30% of the $444.6 billion increase in non-financial companies and other sectors, down about half from the first quarter. This shows that more credit resources are flowing into the real economy.　　We have judged that, in the coming months, in the context of the start of the infrastructure projects supported by the central government, the credit will remain stable, the private investment will be increased and the real demand for loans will be reflected. Import and export, the year-on-year decline further narrowed. Customs statistics show that the month of April, China's import and export value of 170.73 billion U.S. dollars, down 22.8% from the same period last year, a decline of 1.9% year-on-year decline in the first quarter. If the average calculation in accordance with the working day, April this year and March chain import and export value growth of 10.4%, of which export growth of 6.9%, import growth of 15.1%.　　The cumulative trade surplus of 75.43 billion U.S. dollars, compared with the same period last year increased 32.4%, net increase of 18.45 billion U.S. dollars.　　It is not difficult to see that the macro-level data basically confirms the two quarter of the economic start well, but also can not ignore some micro-level problems. One was April, when electricity output fell sharply year-on-year. According to the National Grid Company's statistics, April national electricity generation decreased by 3.55%. Not only was electricity output reduced by 11.966 billion kwh in March, the year-on-year decline was also 2.84% higher than in March. Electricity generation has long been seen as an important precursor to macroeconomic indicators. March figures show that there are signs of stabilisation in electricity generation, but in April it was a nasty turn, in addition to the upstream of heavy industry to inventory and industrial restructuring, energy conservation and other explanations, I am afraid that the real economic demand has not significantly rebound, and the idle or start-up capacity of enterprises are notFeet are inseparable. Second, the enterprise capital chain tightening situation has not been effectively improved. At the end of April 2009, the balance of the narrow money supply (M1) was 17.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.48% per cent, up 0.47% from the end of last month, according to central bank data. On the face of it, it seems that the situation is good, but the M1 only increased by less than 170 billion yuan in March, an increase of more than 800 billion yuan last month. In other words, the business is not too optimistic, the capital chain is still very tense.　　If the above trend continues, the value of the above-scale industrial enterprises will not be improved, and the support for the real economy may weaken. Based on the above judgments, we believe that the two-quarter macro-economy will be significantly better than the first quarter, but the real economic recovery can continue, but also rely on the micro-subject of the actual improvement of the business situation. If in the process of growth, can tamp the micro-basis of economic growth, that is, to further improve corporate earnings forecasts, then 8% of the economic growth target can be achieved.