Economic slowdown suppresses house prices and never relaxes

In the first half of the year the total CPI rose 2.6%; June Changchun CPI Rose 2.4% experts believe that economic growth slowed; lower interest rate expectations; curb prices will not hurt the economy rough estimate: 10,000 yuan in the bank for a year, will depreciate 65 yuan yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics released the first half of the economic data. Gross domestic product (GDP) was 17.284 trillion yuan in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 11.1% per cent, up 3.7% from a year earlier, with two quarterly GDP growth of 10.3% per cent and June consumer Price (CPI) of 2.9%, comparable　　The rise was 0.2% per cent last month, with CPI rising 2.6% in the first half and June per cent in industrial prices, up 6.4% in the first half, up 6% per cent year-on-year. Urban fixed Assets Investment high stability, the whole society fixed assets Investment 11.4187 trillion yuan, rose 25%, of which, real estate investment still maintain a relatively fast growth.　　First half, real estate development investment 1.9747 trillion yuan, growth 38.1%. Data analysis June CPI below market expectations as a whole, June CPI data below market expectations, after the market generally expected between 3.2%~3.3%.　　Laiyun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said the decline in prices for fruits and vegetables led to lower prices.　　According to economic data released earlier by the authorities, the PMI was 52.1% in June, and again after a 1.8% fall in May. At the end of June, China's broad currency (M2) rose 18.5%, the increase was lower than last month and the end of 2.5 and 9.2% respectively, narrow currency (M1) year-on-year increase of 24.6%, the increase is lower than the last month and the end of 5.3 and 7.8% respectively.　　In this regard, Wang Jian, vice president of China's macroeconomic association, said that the growth rate in the two quarter and the first half of the year had indeed slowed compared with the quarter, but it was falling and adjusting within the normal range. Changchun performance CPI rose back to the lowest in the first half of June, Changchun CPI Rose 2.4% Year-on-year, compared to 0.1% last month, the lowest CPI inflation in the first half of the year, seasonal price factors become the main reason for the decline in CPI inflation. In the first half of this year, Changchun CPI Rose 3.05%. June, the CPI chain Total level fell 1.5%, is the month since the beginning of the monthly chain price decline the largest month.　　Among them fresh vegetables fresh fruits prices fall, pull the CPI rose down 1.8%. Small Xu Ledger six months of food costs more than 1971 yuan a year ago, the first half of the food cost more than 1971 yuan. Among them, the most obvious feeling is the increase in vegetables and fruits. Yesterday, Changchun white-collar Xu Jing told reporters. Small Xu family only young couple, weekly focus to supermarket procurement once, the main purchase of food has yogurt, milk, breakfast food, meat and fish, as well as the day to eat vegetables and fruits. According to Xiao Xu's ledger statistics, only the supermarket expenses, each timeOn average, more than 25 yuan last year, a total of more than 650 yuan spent. In addition, to the farmers ' market to buy vegetables and fruits, the first half of the average to go to the market cost about 18 yuan, more than 7.3 yuan a year or so, counted down, the first half of the market to buy vegetables and fruits than last time spent more than 1300 yuan.　　Xiao Xu said. Opinion collision Three quarter food prices may be repeated the analysis of Leaf Tan: Many of the macroeconomic figures in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, suggesting that China is still at a stage of high growth and low inflation. Nationally, food prices have also been a major factor in the CPI, with food prices still fluctuating or recurring in the three quarter, and the CPI is likely to rise again. This is mainly due to the early raw material prices caused by the rise in prices of some agricultural products in the gradual impact of downstream production enterprises and users. "The CPI will gradually fall after the three quarter." "Coping with moderation must be" transformational "Guo Tianyong, director of China Banking Research Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics: the second half should pay attention to two issues: economic growth has fallen back and inflation index has fallen. After all, last year, 4 trillion yuan investment can only in one phase of the short-term growth of the goal of economic growth, long-term look to rely on a large number of social capital to take over. The response to the slowdown should be to accelerate the transformation of economic growth patterns, adjust the structure of economic growth, development of new strategic industries, High-tech industries and energy-saving technology applications and other industries to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises.　　In the process of restructuring, economic development does not seek high speed, but for efficient, high-quality, GDP decline is also normal, especially in the enterprise transformation or fixed investment rate has declined, these should be rationally treated.　　The interest rate hike is expected to weaken the Galactic Securities chief economist Zuo: The data show that CPI inflation is still affordable, short-term negative interest rates are not enough to speed up the pace of central bank interest rate hike, the measure is not necessary. Yixianrong, director of the Financial development Room at the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that last year's price trend was higher than before, so it will certainly have a big impact on the price rise this year. In the second half of the season with the factors of seasonal price reduction, interest rate increases are expected to weaken, the country will also maintain a loose monetary policy, the second half of the macro-control policy will not change.　　From the current situation, interest rate increase will not be used as a means of national macro-control. Curbing house prices will not affect the Economic statistics bureau spokesman Laiyun 15th, said the rapid rise in real estate prices have been significantly curbed the momentum, and there has been a downward trend. The investment demand of real estate also gets some restrain. In the first quarter of the urban real estate prices are too high, the problem of rapid growth, the State Council has increased the strength of real estate regulation, issued to curb some of the city's real estate prices too fast to increase the notice.　　From the effect of policy implementation, it has begun to bear fruit. Shenglai also said that the purpose of real estate regulation is not only to maintain the steady and rapid development of the real estate market, but also to maintain the sustainable development of the economy. China's real estate investment in the first half of the year maintained a 38.1% high growth, much higher than the same period last year. So in the short term it will not have a big impact on the economy. "We believe that as long as the deployment of the State Council, strengthen the real estate regulation, the healthy and stable development of real estate and economic sustainable development will play an active role."　　Laiyun stressed. Our correspondent Shing a rough estimate of 10,000 yuan in the first half of the year's depreciation 65 yuan Year-on-year growth of CPI 2.6%, June year-on-year increase of 2.9%. If the deposit of 10,000 yuan in the bank, according to the current one-year fixed deposit rate of 2.25%, a year after the principal and is 10225 yuan, in accordance with the inflation rate of 2.6%, 10,000 yuan a year later shrunk to 9740 yuan, even if the bank interest of 225 yuan, also depreciated 35 yuan. If according to June data 2.9%, 10,000 yuan depreciation of 65 yuan a year later.