Economist predicts October economic data CPI is unlikely to be regularized

As they enter November, economists are predicting the upcoming October economic indicators.　　Overall, the expected October domestic industrial value added, investment, consumption and other data continue to maintain high; prices, import and export data, although expected to continue to recover, but in October is not likely to be positive, credit data will be significantly reduced. Domestic demand will be maintained high Industrial Bank senior economist Lu Commissar estimates that October China's industry value added data will rise 17.3% year-on-year, a sharp jump 3.4% last month.　　He said that the main industry production stability, the continued improvement of exports and the base effect, will constitute the October industrial value added Year-on-year data continue to rebound strongly. Investment and consumer data remain high. Dongxiangan, Chief macro analyst at Xingye Securities, estimates that investment in urban fixed assets grew 33.5% per cent in October. He said that real estate investment continued to rise, the construction area and the new starting area has risen sharply year-on-year, the real estate in the next few months will remain high investment, and stimulate real estate related industries investment.　　In addition, real interest rates are negative and continue to fall, and corporate expectations of the economy are generally good, which have expanded investment demand. Meanwhile, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 16.1% in October, and continued to maintain high growth.　　This, he explains, is mainly due to a rise in consumer confidence and lower real interest rates that are driving consumption of alternative consumer durables such as automobiles.　　CPI is still difficult to be positive although Shijin, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, predicted in late October that the consumer price index (CPI) could be "positive" in October, but it may still be a little early for other academics and institutions.　　The study, published 2nd by the Bank of Communications finance research, predicts a year-on-year increase in CPI from 0.8% to 0.6% in October, with a median forecast of October CPI growth of about 0.7% per cent year-on-year, with negative growth for the nineth consecutive month since February 2009. The Bank of communications believes that the year-on-year increase in CPI in October will be further narrowed on the basis of a sharp narrowing in September.　　Although the October tilt factor rose by 0.3% per cent last month, agricultural prices monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Commerce were in the process of falling in October, making the October CPI year-on-year decline less than it was last month. According to the report, considering the recent start of non-food prices bottoming out, assuming that October non-food prices fell by 1.7% Year-on-year, according to calculate that October CPI year-on-year growth between 0.8% to 0.6%, take the number of digits, forecast October CPI year-on-year increase of 0.7% or so,　　The nineth consecutive month of negative growth, compared with September year-on-year-0.8% decline, the October CPI year-on-year decline continued to narrow. Lu Commissar also believes that CPI and industrial factory price (PPI) decline, although will be sharply narrowed in October, but will still be negative. He says data from various ministries shows that 10The main food prices fell unanimously in the month. And historically, the October fall in food prices is the usual seasonal rule.　　Not only that, since May this year, China's industrial product sales rate has been lower than the historical average, indicating that currently non-food prices have no significant upward pressure. Combined with the above information, food prices are expected to increase in October, the quarter-on-quarter growth rate will be 0; non-food prices will grow by 0.15%, slightly below September.　　In this way, October CPI overall quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.1%, year-on-year growth of 0.4%, the decline was narrowed by 0.4% last month. "Although the October CPI decline has not narrowed significantly, we expect the trend to rebound will not change as the end of the year's seasonal rebound in food prices, the decline in non-food prices and the negative effects of the trailing factors in the next few months are significantly reduced." Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst at the Bank of Communications Research, said the decision to maintain the November CPI will shift to positive growth, but as prices have rebounded less than expected in the near future, we have lowered the annual CPI growth forecast from about 0.5% to about 0.8% per cent.　　Although the recent rebound in prices is lower than expected, but the trend of price recovery has been established, in 2010, China's prices will return to the rising track, the initial estimate for the year 2010 CPI Year-on-year Rise of about 4%. New lending or a sharp drop in the second half of the year, the pace of domestic bank lending has slowed markedly, thanks to tighter regulatory controls on banking risk and capital adequacy requirements. Institutions generally predict that the October credit will continue this trend, the chain September will be significantly reduced, is expected to add RMB loans at 300 billion yuan level.　　However, since September, the trade surplus and foreign capital inflows have warmed up, the money supply will remain at a high rate of growth, is expected to October M2 year-on-year growth will be close to 30%. "New credit is expected to be 250 billion to 350 billion in October, with a median of 300 billion, down from September," he said. "The new credit in October was generally low in the year and fell markedly from September," said Lu Commissar, a senior economist at Societe Generale.　　And regulators are asking banks to tighten credit-risk controls further, and the pace of credit for national banks has slowed markedly. "The new renminbi loan is expected to be 250 billion yuan in October."　　Dongxiangan, Chief macro analyst of Xingye Securities, believes that the CBRC has repeatedly asked the major banks to control the credit risk, the banking reserve coverage to reach 150% by the end of the year, the project financing guide and the interim measures for the management of fixed assets loans have also been implemented, which is a constraint on credit growth.　　Li Zhiping, a researcher at Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Capital Headquarters Market Research Center, said that credit was expected to fall sharply in October due to holiday factors, while the total credit volume was expected to shrink in the 4 quarter, without a sharp contraction in November 2007 and December.　　Li Zhiping said, based on policy support and the rigid demand for credit, it is expected that November 2009, December will continue to maintain a certain amount of credit. In these machines, CICC has the lowest forecast value. "In October, new loans were the lowest in the year, averaging less than 1/4 in September, because October was the first month of the 4 quarter, with a long holiday factor." And the 11 holiday this year is longer than usual, the new loan is expected to continue this seasonal, significantly reduced to 150 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan, M2 growth rate of around 29%, but 11, December loans will be significantly rebound.　　"CICC recently released the macroeconomic Weekly Report.　　According to the reporter understand, the workers and workers in the construction of four state-owned banks to regain the role of the main lending, the October new renminbi loans of about 136 billion yuan, but the big four banks accounted for a sharp rise in the market, the four banks in September only 110 billion yuan, and September all new RMB loans to 516.7 billion yuan While credit growth has fallen markedly, institutions remain upbeat about the money supply. Lu Commissar believes that since September, foreign investment into the relay credit surge, which will support M2 continue to grow high. "M2 's high growth in the first 8 months of this year has been driven by new credit, and in September it was clear that simply adding credit did not fully explain M2 's hyper-expected rise." September foreign exchange accounted for a strong growth of 406.8 billion yuan, and the previous 1 to August, foreign exchange accounted for the monthly increment has been kept below the lower level of 250 billion yuan. Therefore, the current drive of the M2 upward momentum has been from the internal to external, is expected to continue to accelerate the pace of foreign capital inflows, in addition to the residents, corporate settlement will also be strengthened, the new foreign Exchange account will continue to maintain high.　　Lu County estimates that October M2 year-on-year growth of 29.9%, up 0.6% from last month.　　In view of the recent sustained high growth in the money supply, CICC judged that the central bank could increase the amount of money to be recycled in the next two months because the base currency would rise markedly. Although the general economic theory holds that inflation is a monetary phenomenon, mainly due to the excessive issuance of currency.　　But some economists believe that the high rate of domestic money supply this year will not lead to high inflation next year. "In line with the strong growth in the money supply since this year, it is expected that inflation could be a simplistic and mechanized mistake in 2010," he said. "Wang Qing, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Asia, argues that the strong growth in broad M2 this year has overestimated the real pace of currency expansion by not counting the changes in the allocation of household assets in cash and equities. An estimate of the adjusted M2 increase (which can realistically reflect related economic activity) is significantly lower than the generalized M2 increase. Second, overall weaker export growth could be an alternative indicator of China's output gap and would continue to constitute a powerful constraint on inflationary pressures.　　The combination of these two factors suggests that the high growth in the money supply from 2000 to 2001, while the relatively low inflation rate may recur in 2010. Morgan Stanley believes the current policy stance can be maintained by the end of the year and will be normalized early next year as banks ' new loans normalize (from 10 trillion in 2009 to 2010 years from 7 trillion to 8 trillion) and turned neutral.　　But there is little likelihood of tightening policies such as raising reserve ratios and benchmark interest rates until the middle of 2010, and the renminbi is unlikely to appreciate significantly.　　Foreign trade data or repeated Goldman Sachs Asia China macro economist Yu said that China's September import and export data is strongly affected by statutory holiday adjustments and external demand recovery, as import and export data are often volatile before and after the holidays, and as the holiday factor reverses, October trade figures are likely to "deteriorate" again. But Dongxiangan also holds a similar view. He expects exports to grow by 17% per cent year-on-year in October, with imports rising 5% per cent year-on-year and a drop of more than September.　　But he also stressed that this does not affect China's foreign trade warming trend. Dongxiangan said that exports, the major economies are recovering, Europe and the United States and consumer spending is picking up: the EU's wholesale and retail Trading index in May 2009 after the bottom of the rebound, the U.S. retail sales have been rising for 5 consecutive months, personal consumption spending rose 3 consecutive months. The recovery of overseas economies has increased China's foreign demand.　　As a result, the new export Order index for China PMI in September continued to rise by more than 50% for 5 consecutive months, with the trend of new export orders rising since January 2009 in September, and the September export quarter-year trend of 13.6%, which has remained elevated since the end of December 2008. From the import perspective, "China's strong recovery in consumer investment has also led to demand for foreign products, China's imports will rebound strongly." "he said.