Economist: The disappearance of demographic dividend will not directly affect the capital market

During the "Twelve-Five" period, the proportion of Chinese workers population the total population will begin to decline, which means that the demographic dividend, which has made a significant contribution to the rapid economic development of the past 30 years, will begin to disappear. Will the disappearance of the demographic dividend impact the capital markets? Reporters interviewed 6 economists, most experts believe that the disappearance of the demographic dividend will not directly affect the capital market "financial Network" reporter Rae November 16, reporters on the "Twelve-Five" during the disappearance of China's population dividend will affect the topic of capital markets interviewed several economists.　　Despite the subtle changes in the government's current reference to population issues, most economists still believe that the disappearance of the demographic dividend does not directly affect capital markets. Most experts: will not directly impact the capital market the director of the Institute of Population and Labor economy of Cass, Cai, said 11th in an interview with reporters that the disappearance of the demographic dividend will not affect the capital market, because "the population is a slow variable, and the capital market is changing rapidly."　　Earlier, Cai wrote that the demographic dividend would lead to a sufficient supply of labour and a high savings rate, while China's demographic dividend would disappear in 2013. Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of Everbright Securities, said in a telephone interview that the disappearance of the demographic dividend had no direct impact on the capital markets, but he disagreed with the idea that the demographic dividend would disappear in 2013. He believes that by 2013 or 2015 years, China's social old age dependency ratio is slowly rising, while the child dependency ratio is still declining. But it is not possible to assume that the demographic dividend will disappear in the process, only to reach the Lewis inflection point, and that the decline in the savings rate based on the expected loss of the population dividend is not tenable.　　Economic growth is driven more by science and technology, and China's economic growth will not be greatly affected after its aging. Chengmanjiang, chief economist at BOC International, also disapproved of the notion that the retreat of the demographic dividend would directly affect capital markets. She told reporters there is no doubt that the period of China's most populous dividend is over, and the demographic advantage will certainly not be the dominant factor in the overall economic growth in the future as a whole population structure changes, but the disappearance of the demographic dividend would be a gradual process.　　The disappearance of the demographic dividend may have a lag effect on savings, as China's high savings rate is determined by many factors, and the correlation between demographic structures is weaker than other institutional factors. Wei Fengchun, Chief macro analyst at Citic Investment Securities, said the disappearance of the demographic dividend would not affect capital markets in the short term. In his view, the impact of the disappearance of the demographic dividend is the rise in labor costs, savings rate, consumption decline, the elderly population increase. But it will not have a direct impact on the capital markets, because the demographic dividend will not disappear at once, so it is likely to have some impact on the capital market within 3-5 years.　　He judged that the demographic dividend would not go away until 2015. Minority opinion: The decline in the savings rate will lead to lower investment yields than the four experts, said Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst at the Bank for Development Research,The retreat of the demographic dividend will result in a fall in the savings rate, which will certainly affect the capital markets. As the population ages, the savings rate declines, the capital lever Falls and the return on investment is lowered. This will have an impact on the overall asset prices, will inevitably affect the stock market, real estate.　　He also believes that the 2015 demographic dividend will gradually disappear, but in reality it may be possible to prolong the demographic dividend by extending the retirement age or by strengthening the training of the existing workforce, or by easing the demographic dividend. China's senior macroeconomic analyst at the bank's financial market headquarters, Benji, also believes the disappearance of the demographic dividend is bad for capital markets. He thinks the disappearance of the demographic dividend is a relatively slow adjustment, which lasts about 5 years. As ageing intensifies, the savings rate will fall, mainly in the future, in real estate and stock markets, because the cost of saving will rise after the savings rate declines, and interest rates will be elevated. East Asian economies such as South Korea and Taiwan have seen a sharp fall in the housing market as the demographic dividend begins to turn.　　However, if there is good old-age security, the savings rate may continue to rise after the disappearance of the demographic dividend, but the current savings rate in China is too high, if it is pushed higher is not good. "China's 1950-1960 years of encouraging childbirth and the birth of a large number of babies have led to a rise in the working-age population, up to the 2015 inflection point," said Ha Jiming, chief economist at China's International Finance Corporation, in August this year. "Baby boomers ' children entered the 20~30岁 in 2005, a demographic structure that pushed up the demand for housing and consumption, and was underpinned by intergenerational income transfers, leading to the recent boom in the property market," the future demographic dividend will be further released, and the people who have the ability to work will reach a peak by 2015. He had repeatedly suggested that the disappearance of the demographic dividend would lead to a drop in savings rates, lower asset prices and a slowdown in the economy.　　He predicts that the inflection point in asset prices is likely to occur between 2010-2015 and a half years. (Stock market Weekly feeds)