Economists say China's economy will exceed Japan at the end of the year

Photo 01: Wang Yiming, deputy dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, told reporters that overall macro data to see the uneven, mixed, this shows that our economic operation is in a stalemate, 4 trillion of investment is speeding up the implementation of these investment projects on the role of investment is gradually emerging. Photo 02: Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that since entering this year, the consumption growth should be said to be better than expected, this shows that our country expands domestic demand, in terms of consumption, has seen a more obvious effect. Photo 03: Long, Vice Minister of foreign Economic Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, gave reporters such a group of figures, March 2009 exports of 90.17 billion U.S. dollars, April increased by nearly 1.8 billion U.S. dollars, the chain grew only 2%, but not the general administration of customs announced 6.9%, but whether 2% or 6.9 %, Long told reporters, exports year-on-year decline of more than 20% of the fact remains very worrying. Photo 04: Director of China and the World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University, Li said that so far the pattern of China's real economic slowdown has largely ended, and China's economy can say that it has entered a path of rising growth, the economy has gone out of the trough, the growth rate is rising, China's economy will overtake Japan by the end of the year. "Picture 05: Yuan Gangming, a researcher at Tsinghua University's China and World Economic Research Center, said that the PMI" purchasing Managers Index "sample surface is very narrow, the market is warmer, or to see the comprehensive data published by the Bureau of Statistics, because of raw materials, steel, non-ferrous metals, such as the decline in large, demand is in the direction　　Yuan Gangming thinks there will be a possibility of deflation. (Editor-in-Chief: Louxiaopo Reporter: Gu Ping, Liu Ying is, Chengmanlin, Zhang Zixian, Li Ping ping video: Zhang Xiaoming, Shen Yu, Li Hui, Chang, 刘勋, Chen Yanpo) Although many of the macro data in the first quarter of this year have stopped falling warmer, showing a small yangchun weather, but the Chinese economy still has a lot of variables, Especially in the context of the continued spread of the impact of the global financial crisis, will it be carries? This is an issue of concern to both China and the global Economic Community. The National Bureau of Statistics has released a series of industrial and consumer data this week, with the main data on China's economy running in April.　　Today we combine these latest data to get a pulse on China's economy. Investment and consumption in April have had a positive impact on economic recovery. Journalist: "China's economic recovery is a variable, the April economic data has become a focus of attention, recently with the full release of the main data, National Bureau of Statistics officials said that the Chinese economy has been a positive change, better than expected, But it also said China's economic situation is still relatively grim and needs to be further consolidated. "According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the value of industrial enterprises above scale increased by 7.3% in April." From the major industries, April China's textile enterprises above the size of the increase in the value of 7.8%, transport equipment manufacturing grew by 9.6% and steel industry by 1.7%. Wang Yiming, deputy dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, said: "Overall macro data to see the uneven, we say mixed, this shows that our economy is running in a stalemate." "Reporter:" There is a higher number of attention, the national urban fixed Assets investment, this increase is larger, has reached 30.5%, how do you think of this number? "Wang Yiming:" The growth of investment is mainly with us to expand domestic demand, increase the size of the government's investment, this is closely linked, our 4 trillion investment is speeding up the implementation of these investment projects, its role in investment is gradually emerging. "Reporter:" specific to the industry to say, those industries to perform better? "Wang Yiming:" From the industry, we say that the investment in railways is very large, more than 90%, then there are some infrastructure-related areas of investment, including raw materials, this increase is more obvious, we people say iron, public, aircraft, railways, highways, airports, this infrastructure investment growth is the largest. "In addition to the sharp increase in fixed investment after the April economic figures, another phenomenon that has aroused widespread concern is the" ice-fire double days "in which industrial value increases are compared with electricity consumption data. April output was down 3.55% year-on-year.　　On the other hand, the value of industrial growth continued to rise for several consecutive months: the data growth slowed in April but remained at a year-on-year rate of 7.3% per cent. Wang Yiming: "Mainly high energy-consuming industries, the scale of production may be relatively contracted, so in the previous period, our capacity expansion is very fast, such as steel, some gold, such as alumina, these capacity expansion is very fast, so it is bound by the market, there is a natural contraction of the process, then the reverse is said, Shows that our production of consumer goods, this market demand is more rigid, it is more stable, and this energy raw material this one is relatively shrinking. "Insufficient domestic demand has been plaguing the Chinese economy, and in coping with the global financial crisis, we have also put the expansion of domestic demand at an important position." But domestic demand, on the one hand, is also a big part of consumer demand. The state introduced real estate tax relief, relax consumer loans, and even home appliances to the countryside and other policies, are focused on promoting consumption.　　So, in the stimulus of these policies, did the April consumer market have a noticeable effect? Reporter: "Consumption is one of the three drivers of economic growth, the April total retail sales of consumer goods rose 14.8%, the chain also appeared since February the first growth, so many experts believe that in the April consumption showed good growth trend." At the same time, however, CPI, PPI in April year-on-year decline of 15.% and 6.6%, the two index of both lost, also triggered some people for some time, the economic development trend of concern. Statistics published by the NBS show that in April, social consumer goods retailingTotal of 934.32 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8% year-on-year, the growth rate of 0.1% faster than March. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said: "This year, we should say that consumption is better than expected, the nominal growth of consumption in the first quarter is 15%, then April is 14.8%, if the price factor is eliminated, the actual growth rate of consumption is an accelerated trend　　"Since last November, the central government has issued a series of policies to expand domestic demand, the effect in April, which, in the" home appliances to the countryside "and other policies, in April, the rural consumption growth rate reached 16.7%, higher than the city of nearly 3%. Zhang Liqun: "This shows that our country is expanding domestic demand, in terms of consumption, has seen a more obvious effect."　　Statistics on retail sales of various commodities by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in April, furniture grew by 22.8%, cars grew by 18.5%, and construction and decorating materials grew by 10.8%, the biggest increase in three categories. Zhang Liqun: "Like the auto industry, real estate and urban construction, have been very big pull, the first quarter of this year, passenger car sales increased by 11%, then 1 to April, urban commercial housing sales increased by more than 17%." "There are also experts that the total amount of consumer goods in March Rose 14.7%, April compared to March, did not show too much growth, economic stimulus policy to stimulate domestic demand is not obvious." Meanwhile, in April, CPI and PPI two respectively fell 1.5% and 6.6% year-on-year, the trend of continued decline.　　So there is a voice that the price level of the lower, meaning the decline in consumption capacity, the experts made an analysis. Zhang Liqun: So the price is lower, we want to analyze its reasons, we see prices are year-on-year, the price contains the past 12 months of changes, such as this April this year's CPI, it selected samples of such a product price, and last April the price of these products, make a comparison. Last April, there were a lot of food in China, like pork, edible vegetable oil, the price was higher at that time.　　"Is there any improvement in the export situation of foreign trade in April?" Investment, consumption, exports are driving the economic growth of the troika. As we have seen earlier, investment and consumption in the April has had a positive impact on the economic recovery. Compared with them, exports are most affected by the financial crisis and the biggest contributor to economic weakness. Then, the April export situation of foreign trade has improved?　　Let's take a look. Reporter: "The general administration of Customs will regularly publish China's export data every month, as the troika of the Chinese economy, export data is critical." The April data just came out, and the interpretation of this data, we have heard two equally authoritative but completely different voices, the general administration of customs that the foreign trade has begun to stabilise, and the Ministry of Commerce that the situation is still grim, so the real situationWe are trying to find the answer. May 12 The General administration of Customs announced export data.　　China's exports fell 22.6% per cent year-on-year in April, but according to the General Administration of customs analysis, according to the average work day, the April export quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.9%, which is the second month after the single monthly export growth. "About the data we hear two different voices and the same authority, who do you agree with?" "In general, it is still grim. You agree with the Ministry of Commerce. "Yes." Long, vice Minister of foreign Economic Research, Development Research center of the State Council.　　He told reporters that the general administration of customs used the working day method to calculate the growth of exports in the calculation of export growth in April. Journalist: What's the difference between working days and not working days? The number on weekdays is going to look better. "What if it's not on weekdays?" "Only 2%."　　"Long gave reporters such a group of figures, March 2009 exports of 90.17 billion U.S. dollars, April increased by nearly 1.8 billion U.S. dollars, the chain growth of only 2%, rather than the general administration of customs announced 6.9%. Long, vice Minister of foreign Economic Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said: "I know a lot of export enterprises, it will around if there is an order, it will not say because it is Saturday Sunday to rest, so I think the meaning of the workday is not very big." "Journalist:" That means a more commonsense calculation is based on a full month. "Long:" The simplest algorithm, is how much.　　"But whether it's 2% or 6.9%, Long tells us that the fact that exports have fallen by more than 20% per cent year-on-year remains a matter of great concern." Long: "We are facing the worst situation ever."　　"In the next three months, the export figures are still not optimistic, but the second half of the year will be much better," Long said. Long: "In the second half of the year than the first half to have a significant improvement, to inventory the end of the word, it wants to buy things, for China's exports are necessities of life will be improved." "Although the world is now pinning the hopes of a recovery on the economy, it is fundamentally about the overall climate of the world economy coming out of its doldrums." Just as China released the April economic data, the major developed countries such as Europe and the United States also released their economic data, their economic situation has not improved? Can you bring some good to China's economy?　　Let's analyze it together. Li, director of China and the World Economic Research Center, Tsinghua University: "It should be said that our whole world economy is better than Europe, Europe is better than Japan, the U.S. economic situation can be summed up, the first of its stock market the entire financial and even the entire financial system, basically stable, This is a very important new development in the United States. "The U.S. trade deficit increased by 5.5% in April, according to the US Department of Commerce, which most analysts believe could be easing the US economy, but at the same timeU.S. Labor Department figures show April unemployment soared to 8.9%, the highest since 1983. Meanwhile, a report by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that retail sales in the United States fell 0.4% in April, the second consecutive month of declines.　　The data also show that while U.S. car dealerships have increased sales in April, big-ticket retailers such as cars and appliances will continue to suffer heavy sales declines as American households remain reluctant to spend heavily. Li: "The main problem is that families in the United States used to be in the past, buy a lot of durable consumer goods ahead of time, so now can't buy, do not want to buy, so it led to the rapid decline in the car depot now, in fact, some of the domestic consumption related to some industries, is still good, the latest data shows that instead of rising, So the real economy of the entire American economy its current state should be said to be falling at the rate of decline, the United States economy as a whole, the speed of domestic demand is changing. "In Europe, although the euro zone's March manufacturing purchasing managers ' Index rose from 33.5 in February to 33.9, it still shrank for 10 consecutive months.　　The National Bureau of Statistics reported that manufacturing output fell for the 12th consecutive month in February, and that the quarterly drop to February was the highest since 1968. Li: "The EU is already facing its own economic restructuring, an important task of economic reform, the enterprise labor system, workers ' rights and interests, trade unions and business relations, the relationship between large enterprises has not been straightened out, coupled with the financial crisis, coupled with the world economic situation is not good, Coupled with the financial impact of the European Union's economy is now worse, so the EU's economy I believe its recovery should be after the United States.　　"In Asia, the Bank of Japan survey reported that Japan's first-quarter big manufacturing business sentiment index has deteriorated to record lows as fast as ever, while the country is experiencing its worst recession since the Second World War." Li: "Japan's main difficulty is that its economy has not been transformed, it is still an export-dependent economy, so when the world economy, when the economies of the developed countries, including the American economy, are in trouble, their demand for high-end consumer durables is falling, so Japan is now producing more high-end cars, and digital cameras, computers, video games. Japan has a trade deficit for the first time in over a few years in the past 20 years, so I think, in general, that this round of our country's economic recovery, economic recovery may not be too much hope in the economic recovery of the developed countries, Our main effort may still be at home.　　"In the face of the prolonged winter, is the Chinese economy ready enough?" Under the background of coping with the international financial crisis, the statistics of China's economy have attracted great attention at home and abroad. China has been the world's fastest-growing economy this year, becoming one of the most powerful engines in the global economy. After all, however, the global economy is still in a, and a series of policy measures that start early will take some time to make a real impact. In the face of the winter that has been going on, has the Chinese economy prepared enough?　　Listen to the expert's point of view. China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Index (PMI) was 53.5% in April, up 1.1% from last month, according to a survey by the China Federation of Logistics and purchasing. It has rebounded for 5 consecutive months since last December, coincidentally, the CLSA China PMI index rebounded sharply to 50.1 in April, with the PMI often using 50% as the dividing line for economic strength, which is interpreted as a signal of economic expansion when the index is above 50%.　　When the index is below 50%, especially when it is very close to 40%, it is the prelude to a recession.　　Do the two agencies ' latest PMI figures for April reflect a better market fundamentals? Yuan Gangming, a researcher at Tsinghua University's China and World Economic Research Center, said: "There is a good trend, because this index is likely to be a sample survey of the hundreds of enterprises, the response of these enterprises, indicating a kind of enterprise behavior, or a state of the enterprise, or have reference value."　　"Yuan Gangming think PMI" purchasing Manager Index "sampling face is very narrow, the market is warmer, or see the comprehensive data published by the Bureau of Statistics, because in raw materials, steel, non-ferrous metals, such as the decline in the relatively large, demand is still in the direction of weakening, Yuan gangming that there will be deflation possible. Yuan gangming: "Deflationary pressures are very high, because there are at least two aspects of deflation, a deflation that suggests that demand is weak; second, it shows that the economy is still weak and falling, so we now want the economy to rise and demand can rise, so now our money lending is growing very high, But it is not immediately reflected in demand, nor is it reflected in the economic rebound.　　"Premier Wen Jiabao May 8 in Fujian province, also said that the financial crisis to deal with more than 4 trillion investment plans, and the top ten industrial revitalization planning and other stimulus policies, such as the introduction of these policies to make China's economic recovery, Yuan gangming that to really stimulate economic growth should be the whole of our economy." Yuan Gangming: "Actually these big projects are just a partial, more real work should be our economy as a whole, large and medium-sized enterprises, industries, services, agriculture should have, then now we just see the quick out fist, the punch is the big investment projects and some large-scale loans, these results are very slow, very far, still far , in addition to the big project measures, those many and many of the kind of incentives to spend, they are very good, less money, and quick results. And if the next step continues to increase in this area, and expand the scope, it will have a better effect. "So what about the next step in China's economy?"　　Economists also have different views. Yuan Gangming: "We can only say that there is a good change, but there are not very good changes, because on the whole weEmployment, our consumption, our other aspects, are not visibly improving, so if it turns into a decline in production and investment and becomes a decline in consumption, then the situation is even more serious, which should be taken into account in advance. "Li:" So far, China's real economic growth rate of decline has basically ended, the Chinese economy can be said to have entered a growth rate of the channel, the economy has been out of the trough, the growth rate in the end of this year, the Chinese economy will be larger than Japan, because our economic gap with Japan I have no doubt that it is about 13%, and that China's economy is growing more than 8%.　　"Half an hour observation: confidence determines the future, perhaps, one months of economic data do not explain anything, but in this sensitive period, outside the impact of the international financial crisis, with growth, expansion of domestic demand, restructuring of the momentum, a small little change in each data can herald a big step in the future of China's economy. In the new economic data, we are particularly concerned about the April consumption situation. April, China's total retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year growth of 14.8%, 1 to April cumulative, China's social consumer goods retail total of 3,874,120,000,000 yuan, an increase of 15%. Although the CPI and PPI continued to weaken a certain amount of worries, but the simultaneous amplification of consumption, indicating that the people of the future economic expectations still have great confidence.　　And this kind of confidence and consumption desire is the most scarce resource in the economy of the present countries. If we make a further analysis, we will find that the strongest consumer spending growth is the mainland's two or three-line cities, not the Yangtze River delta, the Pearl River Delta and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, the traditional economic developed areas. This shows that expanding domestic demand for growth to the Midwest tilt of the policy direction, has begun to exert force, China's economic east strong West weak, south strong north Weak plate pattern is drifting.　　Following this change in consumer data, many companies along the eastern Seaboard have recently taken action to aggressively enter the Midwest to compete for the spending power of the mainland market, offsetting the adverse effects of weak sales growth in coastal areas and big cities. Although we cannot expect such a shift in the economic centre of gravity to unfold on a large scale, we believe that the rise in consumer spending and the development of the mainland market have pushed China's economy closer to the direction of sustainable development, and hope that this step will become more and more significant.