Electric coal summer peak or advance 4 class coal stocks should pay attention to

Into the May, the fundamentals of the coal industry will be further improved, but due to the early increase in the coal stocks high adjustment pressure, the proposed focus on stable performance, with valuation advantages of coal stocks. April by the small coal recovery delayed the positive impact of coal supply is tight, supply and demand to maintain a weak balance between the price of coal and transshipment port prices a drop. By the macroeconomic expectations of warmer, international crude oil prices rebound, the coal industry to rectify the impact of the policy, April coal stocks strong rise, the excess yield reached 354%.　　Into the May, the coal industry fundamentals will be further improved, but due to the earlier increase in national securities, the coal stocks have high correction pressure, it is proposed to adjust the timing, pay attention to stable performance, with a valuation advantage of coal stocks. Will usher in the summer consumption of electricity coal April coal plate rose 21.05%, ranked Shenwan second-tier sub-industry one-month rise in the first. In the first week of May, the coal sector remained active.　　Among them, by all over the Coking Industry Association issued on the increase in the May Coke Guidance price policy impact, Coke sub-industry rose far beyond the market. The main reason for the rise of the coal Plate in April is: PMI data show that the macro-economic warming, coal demand is expected to resume; Qinhuangdao coal inventory continued to decline, power coal transit prices stabilized; Small coal mine safety rectification led to the postponement of rehabilitation, the biggest obstacle to the operation of coal industry, the market oversupply pressure ; listed companies in 2008 and the first quarter of this year good performance; international crude oil price shocks upward, the parity effect led to a rise in coal prices; inflation concerns have raised expectations of coal prices.　　From a stock performance, the rise in the former coal stocks have the following characteristics: 2008 and the first quarter of this year excellent performance, at the same time generous dividends; Entering May, from the main urban average temperature data in China, temperatures are higher than in previous years. This shows that the probability of early arrival this summer, so that the electricity coal consumption peak in the summer to start early. This will offset, to some extent, the impact of the economic crisis on the lack of electricity coal demand.　　Coupled with fixed asset investment projects started to boost, power coal prices are expected to first suppress the yang. Coal stocks cut space limited coal stocks recent gains are quite impressive, short-term profits back to spit pressure. In view of the international crude oil price expectations, the coal plate still exists valuation advantages, coal industry policy side of the warm and other factors, the coal stocks are expected to adjust the extent of small.　　The main factors affecting the trend of coal stocks include: the trend of international crude oil price, the indirect influence of downstream industry policy and production operation, whether the macroeconomic data supports the economic recovery expectation, and the actual implementation of small coal mine safety rectification remains to be seen; 2009 Power contract coal prices can be signed and whether composite expectations; National Securities believe that the macro-economy has bottomed out, coal industry demand will gradually recover.　　The inflation-resistant nature of the coal stocks will continue to be a concern in the second half of the year as inflation expectations have intensified, so a pullback in the stock price is also a medium-term opportunity. Considering the early start of the summer coal peak, the electricity coal pricewill be supported; The recent rebound in steel prices, but the recovery of demand remains to be seen, and the production of small and medium-sized steel mills will be pressure on steel prices, so coking coal and smokeless jet coal price increase space is limited, but the decline in space is not. The supply of smokeless coal is limited, the demand is relatively stable and the price is relatively firm.　　Therefore, national securities for the dynamic coal, smokeless coal sub-industry is relatively optimistic, for coking coal and smokeless jet industry cautious attitude. The proposal concerns 4 kinds of stocks: 1, coal price exists the dynamic coal industry of the anticipation, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Datong coal industry, national investment Xinji, national Yangxin can; 2, relatively stable performance of anthracite sub-industry, such as Orchid Division, 3, coking coal leading enterprises, such as Xishan coal power, 4, with valuation advantages of enterprises, such as Lu ' an ring can,　Datong coal industry. National Securities