Elephant Dance bank shares trend faces differentiation

Since entering the June, with the Shanghai Composite Index to break through the earlier highs 2,688 points and accelerate the rally close to 2,800 points, a-share market investment style to the 28 phenomenon of the transformation of the signs become more obvious, and the banking sector plate obviously showed a mainstay of the role. From PU FA Bank's big grab right, to China Merchants Bank, Societe Generale, and the new high, and then to the Monday Construction Bank, the Chinese bank, ICBC, "Elephant Dance", the plate of funds in the face of the continued involvement of the banking sector is very obvious.　　As a share market in the far-reaching of the super weight plate, the recent strong rise of bank shares eye-catching. The valuation advantage causes the investment demand as the main financial medium of the national economy, the domestic bank fully shares the domestic economic growth, under the long-term trend of the financial service demand vigorous and the RMB appreciation, the long-term growth trend of domestic banking is worth looking forward to. Despite the turmoil in the global financial markets triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis, investors have been worried about the future development of the domestic banking industry, and the accumulation of internal and external environmental pressure will also drag on the profitability of the banking industry. But as the central bank implemented moderately loose monetary policy, China's money supply continued to loose in the first quarter of 2009, M0, M1, M2 and loan growth rebounded rapidly, lending growth significantly exceeded deposit growth. The market expects new loans to reach $68 trillion a year in 2009.　　With the support of such a large number of credit, there are obvious signs of macroeconomic recovery, such as industrial value added, real estate investment has a monthly rebound, and the continued rise in international market commodity prices, also reflects the global economy has seen a rebound in the positive signal. Under this background, the blowout of credit scale will bring the super high speed expansion of the bank scale, and the recovery of the macroeconomic, especially the real estate market, and make the bank asset quality keep positive situation.　　With the transformation of domestic banks into diversified profit models under the trend of financial mixed operation, such as media reports that Bank of communications will acquire 51% of the shares of China-Baokang Life Insurance Co., Ltd. and the acquisition of 50% of the first Aetna Life insurance Company in Beijing, the long-term stable growth pattern of the domestic banking industry will continue. At the same time, after a strong rebound of more than 60% this round, the overall valuation level has been significantly improved, most of the plate valuation has been relatively reasonable or even overvalued. But as a few "value depressions" in the field, the current static market net rate of bank plate is 2.3~2.50 times and static P/E ratio is less than 15 times times, all of which are significantly lower than the same level.　　Therefore, in the overall valuation advantages of the case, with the continued involvement of foreign funds, the strong rise of the banking sector has played a decisive role in the recent a-share market strength. Bank shares or will differentiate the current situation, the future monetary policy to maintain a moderately loose overall tone unchanged, the overall economic environment will remain relatively high liquidity, and the banking sector after experiencing the most difficult stage, as the macro fundamentals began to gradually improve, the bank stock valuation has been significantly improved. In the secondary market after a short period of sharp rise in the banking sector, especiallyIt is based on the construction Bank, Bank of China, ICBC as the representative of the state-owned banks accumulated a certain increase in the short term lack of further driving factors in the background, the current bank plate of its valuation level continue to improve the space is not. In addition, the concern is that, on the one hand, the 1-quarter new loans as high as 4.58 trillion yuan, both from the real economy and monetary policy perspective is not sustainable. In fact, from the recent tone of monetary policy, both the central bank and the Banking Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance and other relevant departments have actually been fine-tuning, from a single emphasis on growth, to protect growth and to guard against credit risk.　　Therefore, the changes in the scale of credit to the banks of the impact of the stock sector should also be defensive. On the other hand, from the current macro-economic data, although industrial value added, fixed assets investment, PMI, consumer and retail indicators continue to rebound, but the use of electricity, import and export trade and other data is still low, given the domestic and foreign macroeconomic recovery of the gradual, complex characteristics, in such a context, for banking stocks, In the medium and long term bullish, for short-term volatility risk also need to be vigilant.　　As the "valuation depressions" of bank stocks are gradually filled up, the future differentiation of bank stocks will be unavoidable. We believe that there are several types of banking stocks are worth focusing on, first of all, some of the existence of Shang theme of the bank stock market, such as the Pudong Development Bank, China Merchants Bank and so on, and secondly, for the market rumors of mergers and acquisitions to generate market premium banking stocks, such as deep growth; There are also some transaction-type investment opportunities in the banking stocks listed overseas, such as Minsheng Bank.