Entrepreneurs, subversion is not a random mention

By solving the current pain point to start a business, there is a huge risk. The so-called pain point and just need are the current pain point and just need, but wait until the entrepreneur set out to solve, wait until the product on line, maybe a year or two years have passed, to the point of pain or pain point? The environment has been changing, today's pain point may not be the pain point after two years, today's demand is no longer the demand, the environment has changed the solution has changed. So I think to solve the current pain point to start a business is actually a very big pit.

From an investment point of view, we look at a project to solve the user pain point is not a good entry point, will look at three questions: trends, changes, points of time.

Trend: Bullish or bearish?

For investors, investing is a trend. We often say to invest in the Chaoyang industry, buy shares to buy up not to buy a fall, but for the early investors, we are also difficult to determine what is sunrise industry, as you can hardly guarantee that a rising stock will not be in the next day to buy a turn down, most of the summary, analysis and judgement is actually Zhuge Liang. From experience, those industries that are hard to make money and most of them feel hopeless are sometimes worth paying attention to.

When an industry continues to slump, costs are rising and profits are thinning until most industry workers lose, there are two possibilities: fall into the Abyss or the Jedi bounce back. If new technologies and the Internet can have an impact on the industry, the chances of a Jedi rebound will be great. For example, 2008, 2009 mobile phone industry, industry insiders should remember that the interest rate than the blade still thin pain.

It is hard to find a big enough opportunity for the industry that has been able to keep up the percentage of growth for several years. As new entrants continue to bring in new funds, the market becomes more fragmented and it is difficult to emerge as a monopolistic company. This steady-growth market may be a tasteless opportunity for investors to eat tasteless. Unless this steady growth comes a few years later, because of technological development, social structural change, or some other external cause, there is a larger upward inflection point. That's what I'm going to say about change.

Point of Time: is the east Wind in position?

In the venture and investment, the judgment trend is relatively still a certain degree of discipline, but the "point of Time" judgment is a very difficult thing. The most optimistic people always think that tomorrow will be the change, rushing in, afraid of missing the window; Optimists generally consider a significant change after 3 or 4 years, but the reality may tend to be longer than 3 or 4 years, and it may never be possible for a pessimistic person to see this change, Or think that even if you want to change, also need to meet a lot of conditions, how also 5 years ~10 years, so do not dare to do anything, they just forget more and more technical fields show "Moore's Law", there is an astonishing exponential growth.

"Too early, dead on the beach", "Too late, already a lot of people are doing", "unfortunately, no longer adhere to a year or two" is basically describing the entrepreneurial process how to judge "time point" of some sentiment. So it is particularly important to grasp the time rhythm of entrepreneurship.

In the judgment of the point of time, it is easy to cause another kind of "national entrepreneurship phenomenon" or "the phenomenon of the pioneering business". When a chance comes, there are a few one or two companies with 2 or 3 years of accumulation in the market, many entrepreneurs and investors can quickly see the value of these companies, so quickly follow. Similar to the ever-appearing public advertising, solar energy, do group buying, there are now feeding, massage, used cars. Follow the new entrepreneurial pros and cons, we judge.

Change = opportunity?

Investment is a trend, more accurately investment "change". A slow rise or fall will not be a good opportunity, only "change" is the opportunity, the change is more like a geometric "inflection point." Innovation Factory in 09 when it decided to make an investment in Android, Symbian was still the Overlord; the iphone's eco-chain is relatively well built, and developers are starting to earn revenue on the app store; Android systems are imperfect, apps are scarce and markets are barren. So should you choose Symbian, which still has a huge stock market and a huge volume of shipments, or have you already built an ecosystem of apples or a lot of Android? Today the answer is clear, but there are different views of the industry at that time.

Now it is a time for all people to start a business, which is a good thing for the whole society, the investment organization and the entrepreneur. In particular, after the popularity of smartphones, the internet is no longer a very high-tech, unreachable things, China's four-line five-line city people can all of a sudden and the same as the first-tier city people have the same equal ownership and use of the network. This brings a lot of entrepreneurial opportunities and investment opportunities, whether pure mobile internet applications, games or O2O. This is a huge change!

However, specific analysis is needed to specific areas, especially O2O. The online internet has changed a lot, but is there any change in the offline industry? If the rash because of the popularity of mobile internet, it is considered that all kinds of offline services have the opportunity, which is very dangerous.

Entrepreneurs must ask themselves: Why do I do this today more than five years ago, the probability of success is higher? Why is it better to use Andriod/ios to dispatch vehicles today than five years ago when people used PND, using wince, and using Linux to dispatch vehicles? In addition to this technology changes, the industry has also accumulated a breakthrough potential energy?

Optimism is that China has accumulated in the traditional industry for several decades, at a very low level of information, most of the industry's organization and operation are in inefficient state, although the original PC Internet is improving some, but the mobile internet is completely reconstructed a commercial system. Going central, mediating, and organizing will happen in different industries over the next few years.

Don't talk about subversion easily

At present, many people think that it is difficult to find people who are born in traditional industries and have internet thinking, so it is difficult to change from traditional industries to the Internet than internet people to understand traditional industries, and I hold a different view on this point. And those in the traditional industry for a lifetime, may not even the Internet forums, whenever different. For the last, although they are engaged in the traditional industry work, but to some extent also has the Internet ability and awareness:

First, they have been using the Internet products since their students, the internet is not unfamiliar; second, his experience can be transplanted to the Internet; third, today is full of Internet-related mass of information, they consciously or unconsciously by the Internet edification.

So in theory, the traditional industry in the learning of the Internet than the Internet people understand the traditional industry faster. Internet-literate people in traditional industries will be the new force in the next batch of startups, and they will change many industries.

Internet entrepreneurs like to talk about "subversion", subversion of that, most of the industry is not subversive, but to rebuild the business rules. If the food is not good to eat, then the Internet is also difficult to swallow, the watch is not good-looking, time is not allowed, how to network, how can install the app will not have how many people use, air-conditioning is not refrigeration, noise is still very large, can use mobile phone remote control, what can?

The internet gives a lot of entrepreneurial opportunities, but it should be returned to the product to do well, service to do well.