Equipment autonomy to enhance the demand for machinery industry to embark on the revitalization of the road

The machinery manufacturing industry, which has been highly watched by analysts in the last two weeks and ranked 3rd in the analyst's list of concerns, has risen sharply to its highest level in recent days, according to online analyst statistics today. The main reason why analysts have been paying more attention to the mechanical manufacturing industry is the recent revitalization of the equipment industry planning rules. Compared with the February document, this rule puts forward specific policy support measures. such as value-added tax transformation; the risk compensation mechanism of the first domestic (set) equipment; After the expiration of the policy of casting, forging, die, CNC machine tools, the new tax policies are studied, the financial support is given to the enterprises ' domestic mergers and acquisitions, and the subsidies to the purchase of the energy-saving products and agricultural implements, etc. Citic Securities believes that, in this critical period of risk and opportunity coexist, the equipment manufacturing industry revitalization planning rules, it is time.　　China is currently in the expansion of domestic demand, speeding up the key period of infrastructure construction and industrial transformation and upgrading, there is a huge market demand for advanced equipment; Although the global financial crisis has made our country's equipment manufacturing industry face great challenges, it accelerates the adjustment of the world's industrial structure and provides opportunities for China to participate in the industrial division of labor. As a whole, China is a big country of equipment manufacturing industry, but it is far from the equipment manufacturing power, and the main reason is the weak ability of independent innovation, the backwardness of basic manufacturing, the low level repetition construction and the difficulty in popularizing and applying independent innovation products. Since the second half of last year, domestic and foreign market equipment demand has shrunk sharply, China's equipment manufacturing industry for many years of rapid growth momentum obviously slowed, it is the equipment industry in China to upgrade the industry, change the growth mode of the great opportunity. The direction of the revitalization program covers almost all of the machinery industry, but the real benefit is not all the machinery industry companies. Revitalization of the adjustment plan the most important emphasis is the equipment autonomy, from the first set of first set, the key construction projects, basic supporting parts, domestic equipment market satisfaction rate, independent innovation and so on all convey this meaning.　　The realization of equipment autonomy, substitution of imports, and indirectly enhance the domestic demand for equipment; the preferential policies given by the State are external conditions, and whether enterprises can seize the opportunity depends on their own factors. From the market performance, the recent one-month mechanical plate index increase in the basic and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index synchronization. Shanghai Securities that the main reason may be: the construction machinery industry in the past one months there is no major adverse or favorable factors appear, the valuation of the plate has been basically reasonable, the plate with the market synchronized fluctuations. From the stock trend, about half of the plate appeared to rise, the other half fell, which also showed that the plate still did not appear independent market.　　However, Citic Securities pointed out that the long-term prospects for the machinery industry are still favorable in the context of global industrial transfer, domestic industrial upgrading, independent innovation in the industry and the successful development of overseas market experience. From the growth of profits, although the 09-year first quarter machinery industry revenue and earnings are still in negative growth, but from the four quarter of last year, the machinery industry's main business gross margin has begun to rebound quarterly. by 09In the first quarter, gross profit margins have rebounded to 17.5%, up 0.6% from the 08 3-quarter minimum 16.9% gross margin, showing signs of a rebound in the machinery industry. Due to the rise in gross profit margin, the first quarter of the machinery industry EBIT profit margin also appeared bottoming out, the first quarter EBIT profit margin than the four quarter increase of 0.9%, the increase is higher than the margin increase. In addition, since the beginning of last November, domestic credit began to multiply, but the machinery industry, the problem of high receivables is still not significantly improved. 09 The end of the first quarter, the Machinery industry receivables balance 73.75 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9%, compared to 08 years of the four-year chain growth of 7.8%.　　Due to the first quarter of the machinery industry revenue is falling, so show the machinery industry sales back to the situation still need to improve. From the valuation point of view, according to the 09 earnings of the dynamic P/E ratio, the current mechanical plate P/E is lower than the 300 average P/e ratio of nearly 7%. Shanghai Securities believes that: 09, large Integrated Enterprises (31 heavy industry, Zoomlion) can enjoy 22-25 times P/E, high-quality Professional Enterprises (Xugong technology, mountain push shares, mountains and rivers Intelligence, LiuGong) can enjoy 17-20 times P/E, high-quality High growth components SME (Fangyuan support) can enjoy 32-35 times P/E. At present, the overall valuation of construction machinery plate has been basically reasonable. Give most companies a "big city Sync" rating before new positives emerge.　　In the short term, the industry is about to recover, in the long run, the industry is facing a large and sustained high growth of the market and the international relatively large price advantage, the domestic construction machinery industry is worth long-term optimistic. To increase the allocation of policy-oriented funds by the end of the 1 quarter of 09, the fund held the top ten stocks in the machinery industry market value of 16.506 billion yuan, the chain growth of 52.08%, the proportion of net worth of funds 1.01%, the chain Rose 0.27%; Rose 0.97% in the chain. The machinery Industry index rose 60.41% in the last six months and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 40.7%. The machinery Industry index is far from winning the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index, mainly because the role of expanding domestic demand growth policies such as infrastructure construction has begun to show, and the attraction of the machinery industry to the fund is gradually increasing. From the new and overweight stocks of the Fund, the Fund prefers segments that benefit from national policies. Among them, the machinery industry first benefited from the 4 trillion policy of the construction machinery industry is favored by the fund: Loader faucet LiuGong added to the new warehouse stocks, the industry leader in Zoomlion, 31 Heavy Industries, Xugong Science and Technology Fund, the proportion of stocks accounted for more than 4% of the share of circulating capital increase; benefit from farm machinery subsidy of agricultural machine leading Jianghuai power , benefiting from the "car to the countryside" in the cloud of power into the new heavy warehouse stocks. The railway equipment industry indirectly benefited from the country's 4 trillion investment policy, strong resistance to economic cycle, is a good defensive breed, but in 09 1 quarterBy the Fund reduction.　　Among them, the railway equipment industry, one of the two oligarchs of China's south car was significantly reduced, heavy warehouse of the shares of the fund from the 08 4 quarter of 28, reduce to 7; The railway axle industry leading enterprise of the west Axle was excluded from the fund heavy stocks. Focus on three types of investment opportunities Guotai that there are three types of companies that have opportunities in the industry: A, hand-held orders sufficient, the performance of a more determined defensive companies, including (1) and resource extraction or new energy-related heavy machinery companies, focusing on Taiyuan heavy industry, technology, Huarui cast steel, Tianma shares; (2)　　Benefit of the environmental protection policy of dedusting desulfurization Equipment company, focusing on the Dragon net environmental protection.　　Second, the performance of uncertainty, but when the economic recovery, resilient big offensive companies, specifically including (1) downstream is a strong cyclical industry companies, focusing on the East Force transmission, land and sea heavy Industry, (2) Construction machinery exports accounted for a higher company, focusing on the group, Xugong technology, Anhui Heli, mountain push shares.　　Third, hand-held orders are sufficient, but the performance of uncertainty, once the factors affecting the certainty of performance elimination or weakened, there are more than expected, the company called both offensive and defensive companies, focusing on Chinese ships, Zhenhua Port Machine.　　The above three kinds of companies correspond to defensive investment strategy, attacking investment strategy, attack-defense investment strategy.　　Disclaimer: This article is based on today's investment online analyst data platform for editing and collation, does not represent the view of today's investment, this article is for reference only, can not be used as the basis for investment, investors should carefully control the investment risk. Source: Invest Today