Eric Consulting Cao: Mobile game in the great changes in online games

Sponsored by Chengdu Municipal People's government, Mobile Games Development Alliance, China Mobile Communication Federation, the Peoples Daily Network (603000, shares bar), Tencent Net, when the music network co-organized the "2012 Mobile Game Congress" December 20 in Chengdu, Sichuan Investment International Hotel Grand held. The 2-day session consists of the "Mobile Gaming Industry Summit Forum" and the "Global Mobile Game Developers Conference". The conference brings together nearly 100 industry leaders and more than 1000 participants in the game industry, including related companies in the global mobile gaming industry chain, mobile game developers, channel operators, platforms and operators, mobile internet companies, terminal manufacturers, reputable investment institutions (or companies), Share major opportunities and changes in the field of mobile gaming.

Eric Cao, dean of the Consulting Institute, attended the 2012 mobile games conference and delivered keynote speeches. He said that more and more hardware upgrades of mobile phones have surpassed Moore's law in the PC era; in software, entertainment games in smart terminals are still the mainstream of mobile apps. For China, mobile gaming is a major change in the overall online game.

The following is a full text record (without my verification):

I am very happy to participate in this mobile game assembly, I am from Eric, I believe that familiar with the PC Internet friends should be very familiar with Eric, Eric itself is also in the same friends here, but also in the mobile Internet research on this aspect of the ongoing efforts to try and explore, So what I'm sharing with you today is some of the latest research data and results in the mobile game, and we hope to bring some inspiration to all of you here.

Indeed, mobile gaming is now the mobile internet era in which people think that may be the first to gain huge commercial benefits of the model, why the mobile game is now so hot, we also through just Hong always talked about the whole market is unstoppable, is the trend, we see all the predictions and speculations, The change between the mobile terminal and the PC terminal is actually a bit conservative, and at the moment it comes from mobile terminals, especially the relationship between smart terminals and PCs, especially desktops and notebooks. Last year, intelligent terminals shipped more than the PC end, from a global perspective, in the next year, the concept of statistics will become a volume, the world's intelligent terminals will be more than the PC, we look at China, China should be closely follow the global trend of mobile Internet, we see there are Huawei and so on terminal manufacturers, In the production of mobile intelligent machine is to let us excited, with such a high price, for our users to provide a good model.

So on another level, not only quantity, but also quality, is really cost-effective, we see more and more mobile phones, hardware upgrades have surpassed the PC era Moore's law. We looked at the current platform, in the mobile terminal platform, we all like a variety of applications, we statistics based on the App Store and Google Play, more than One-fourth of the application is game and entertainment, this is very good proof, this intelligent terminal Entertainment game or the mainstream , let's take a look at China's mobile games are in the midst of big changes in the entire online game, we can see from the figure above, China's entire gaming industry users pay market scale, green block represents the entire mobile user market size, is gradually developing the yellow color column represents the size of the smartphone game users , from the beginning of last year we can see that its growth, last year, China's smartphone game payment scale is 520 million yuan, estimated to reach 1.25 billion this year, an increase of 140.9, the growth rate is a typical industry of the import period, rapid growth period, import period, the scale in fact in the last so three years, It will quickly rise to a relatively large market scale, this is a bit like our PC games in the 01 and 02, and the 2000 and 2001 online ads, as well as E-commerce, are just beginning at this time, the scale is only hundreds of millions of, but now, see these several markets are tens of billions of of the scale, From the revenue point of view, China's entire mobile game quickly from the non-intelligent machine to the platform transfer, because this green pillar actually contains a part of the operator's costs, so in the last year, or the next two years, the entire China Mobile game industry structure, the industrial chain will basically appear from developers, distributors, To platform operators and independent operators, our mobile application advertising platform for the promotion of the game, to distribution channels, to WAP, the Web market, from today to see the entire industry chain market has gathered to our meeting today, now see distribution channels, terminal manufacturers, operators play a more important role, Because they will contact customers, master users, this is one of the strategy of millet.

Let's see, basically China's entire mobile gaming market, we can look at, as the proportion of the intelligent machine further up, along with the payment channels are constantly improving, with some business models from the PC side of some successful replication, of course, depends on the network environment, and more and more big guys began to pay attention to this market, Many end of the tour, the page tour developers in the market, the market in a rapid development period, we see from another perspective why this situation, is because China's mobile game market is indeed a number of special conditions of the outbreak, which national conditions? Recent research data can be seen, Chinese mobile game users often play the game time, we used to think that should be commuting, or in the comparison band distribution time, but we found that the second, let us very surprised, after work, after work home, There will still be a lot of mobile game users to play mobile phone online games, which we think is not the same as we had previously imagined, we always feel at home should rest, see video or something, but a lot of people play games. Then go to play mobile games, in the networking mode, WiFi will account for One-third, this is China's characteristics, because after all, the cost is still a little cheaper. Plus a factor, and then we think about the relationship with this factor, what factors? China's X, PS market has not let go, China's PSP, PSV this market also did not let go, there are nbe, this is in Japan and South Korea is a big line, in China also did not let go, so in China's game market inside will find, play the home multimedia Terminal decision is the smart phone, In some relatively not particularly high-end user groups, China, after all, is a grassroots user at the core, so that the entertainment function of mobile phones, game features are highlighted, and the world compared to the global mobile game fragmentation time, weak networking, asynchronous, light games, China is characterized by real-time interactive mobile MMO online has its own characteristics. Next we will see, for such national conditions, page Tour products, intermodal mode is replicated, some big guy into the market, the pattern will change. We counted, according to our own IRIS mobile monitoring data products, museifiacker, we have done some tests on the phone, found in the top 100 of the mobile game, we see October, this is October this year, the monthly coverage of the first 100 of the single online game distribution, Among them 81 is the puzzle class, mainly is the puzzle kind of small game mainly, 19 is the network game, to the main chess, we put the 100 in the monthly coverage of the number of the top 10 pulled out, we can see, ranked first Fruit Ninja, the second Tom Cat, the third fishing Tatsu, the fourth zombie, These exceptions are stand-alone games, in the Android and iOS coverage, we see another indicator this year, the game per capita monthly effective browsing time, the top 100 of stand-alone and net game distribution, this time you can find the advantages of online games on the introduction, it reached26 and is a stand-alone game from this point of view, the core is the Tower Defense class game, we ranked the top 10 by 10 rankings, ranked first is the forgotten Cents HD, the second is and the language, the third QQ Dream City, the fourth law of the landlord, the five is simulated life, this is a stand-alone game features very very obvious, A single machine game high coverage, network games is younger, it's business model will be very different, stand-alone game its advertising value, it is a high coverage, a high display of PV advertising opportunities, and strong connectivity in the user pay will reflect this diversity, Therefore, mobile game is definitely a stand-alone game advertising value is beyond doubt, we can see that this is from the more play data, we also cited a bit, basically according to the different types of advertising, the choice of advertising, mobile phone game can account for 10.8%, The ads click-through distribution inside the mobile phone game accounted for 1.5%, ranked second, second only to electronic reading. Of course the game market we also looked at, statistics on the operation of capital, in fact, this year is indeed a relatively cold winter year, the entire network gaming industry, the scale of financing has plummeted, but in this slump, the actual investment in the financing inside there are 10 of it is about the web game (microblogging), And then in the mobile Web game investment market financing times inside, 2012 than 2011 Although there is a decline, but there are still 5 of financing, mobile in fact, in this trough performance is still not as bad as the general trend, so we still have strong confidence in mobile, the whole game of investment, financing trends can be seen , 07 before the end of the tour, 07-09 years three years inside the social games, social games are now basically a bit of decline, and now the most peak of the web game, the hottest, 12 years later, 13, 14 We believe that mobile games will become the next hot investment and financing.

The last time I will talk about mobile games in the world breakthrough trend, in recent years we can see the mobile game in the overseas market has also achieved some good results, 12 we estimate is 820 million of the revenue scale, of which more than 70% of the game from the smartphone exports, nearly 600 million, This is mainly concentrated in the ios,ios accounted for more than 80%, the market we look at it is in which several countries there have been some breakthroughs.

We follow a few country, first look at Japan, from July 11 to July 12, we compared the Japanese, South Korea, the United States, China in this market, some of the opportunities, and the local market performance, we found that when the music, iOS download the number of downloads distribution, and iOS game distribution, Although we often take Japan as a goal, in fact, Japan is quite a closed market, the entire game development of 78% of the local Japanese, the entire income of 94% of the domestic enterprises, so this is because of the different national culture, in fact, this market is difficult to enter. Korea we found a lot of European and American manufacturers, but from the perspective of income, we found that China accounted for 14%, in fact, is a big surprise, including the development team from our Chengdu contribution, the United States is more import countries, because the U.S. market more open some, from the income point of view, China has achieved certain achievements, Accounted for 2%, known as the palm of the three and so on to achieve very good results, Japan and South Korea are analog grow-out games and role-playing games for the core, the United States is basically arcade action games, South Korea is a high-quality network environment, he can create an MMO market, the United States is more creative, his return to the creative and innovative mode. So we make a comparison of the markets in these three countries, from the point of view of the coincidence degree, Android in the three-game maturity is higher than the iOS game, so the iOS export will certainly face the three countries the strong competitiveness of local developers, the second is the Japanese market, relatively independent, overlap and South Korea, the United States are relatively low, The Japanese market is more difficult to enter than South Korea and the US.

Finally predicts the overall trend of mobile gaming, which may occur next year, and mobile games will transplant the product of the Web game. The second trend may take longer, one is cross-platform, to meet the user's multiple terminals, I hope that the concerns of the PC, page tour, mobile phone game across the line, users can be 24 hours a day through a variety of ways to intervene, the current view of the page and mobile games will first get through, the end of the tour may also make it more easily datong, Mobile game type will continue to subdivide, I believe that mobile version of FPS, MOBA, etc. will appear. Trend four is the PC advertising and the electricity quotient compares, the game's realizable mode is easier to duplicate, will be more hopeful, which I think is more hopeful in China, China's national conditions just I already said, trend five is overseas nuggets business will look back to the domestic, we see overseas market will face some competition pressure, The rapid growth of the domestic market, the environment more and more good, time relationship, my share to this end, thank you!