Exchange is not equal to the appreciation of the renminbi July two-way fluctuation rose only 0.1%

Exchange is not equal to the appreciation of the RMB July two-way fluctuation Liulanchang August 2, the renminbi to the U.S. dollar middle price and closing prices were reported 6.7742, up from the date of about 8 basis points, for the sixth consecutive trading day rose.　　But in the middle price, the yuan to the U.S. dollar since the central bank announced that the renminbi exchange rate fluctuation space increased by only 0.78% in 1.5 months, but compared with the trend of more than a year before the exchange rate, the trend of the two-way fluctuation of the renminbi is becoming more and more obvious. "There is certainly room for appreciation in the renminbi for a long period of time, but as domestic growth slows and the pressure from the west on the renminbi to appreciate is reduced, the space for appreciation in the short term may be limited, but the volatility will certainly be greater."　　"said Guo Tianyong, director of China Banking Research Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics.　　Roughly, in the 1.5 months since the central bank restarted the exchange, the renminbi has risen against the dollar for three weeks, down three weeks, but in fact the 0.78% per cent gain was mainly cumulative in the first two weeks after the transfer, with a cumulative increase of only 0.1% per cent in July. June 21 was the first trading day after the central bank issued a transfer statement, with the renminbi in the middle of the dollar to 6.8275 in the previous session.　　However, a large number of renminbi purchases that emerged on that day pushed the closing price up to 6.7975, with intraday volatility of 0.46%, near the 0.5% ceiling and the biggest volatility since 2005.　　The next day, the renminbi to the median price of the U.S. dollar reached the highest level of 6.7980 in five years, driven by high middle prices, although the plate at once touched 6.7958, but eventually closed to 6.8000, the market for a one-time sharp appreciation of the renminbi is again frustrated. "This is actually the market misreading the statement of the central bank, to understand it as a further push for change is to let the renminbi appreciate, and the trend of the renminbi exchange rate and technical surface related, before the renminbi has been consolidated for more than a year, after the consolidation will be very big changes, is not entirely the reason for the change.　　Tan Yaling, director of China Foreign Exchange Research Institute, said August 2. The renminbi rose nearly 0.55% against the dollar in the week, despite a failure to meet expectations of a sharp appreciation of the renminbi.　　After entering the second week, the renminbi did not rise to the median price of the dollar, but three fell two, but June 30 and July 2, the renminbi against the dollar close to the record, the two-day increase of 0.26% and 0.11% respectively, so that the week's rise also reached 0.25%. "I originally expected the renminbi to rise 2% to 3% against the dollar by the end of the year, but now it seems that there is less room for appreciation." If the government controls asset bubbles to reduce the chance of speculative capital profiting and the real economy slows, there may even be capital outflows in the future, which will not allow the renminbi to rise too fast.　　"Guo Tianyong said.　　As for the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, Tan Yaling that this is in line with the central bank's intention to promote change. After announcing a further push for change, senior central bank officials have frequently written or made public about the renminbi's exchange rate.In particular, the deputy Governor of the central bank, Hu Xiaolian, has issued five consecutive articles in half a month since July 15, giving a comprehensive explanation of the "exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand, which is regulated by reference to a basket of currencies". "This is actually the central bank in the market to do a job, although the start of the transfer has been five years, but the market for the policy framework of the reform and so on the understanding of the Government is deviated from the original intention of the central bank to take a lot of past things to further explain clearly."　　"Tan Yaling said. Although the central bank has successfully conveyed to the market the signal that the renminbi's two-way volatility will intensify, but Hu also pointed out that a reference to a basket of currencies is more effective in regulating imports, exports, current account and balance of payments than on a single currency, and also reflects the fluctuation of the exchange rate.　　"In the future, we can try to publish the nominal effective exchange rate and gradually use the effective exchange rate as reference for the RMB exchange rate level." "As the dollar remains the main trade settlement currency, the renminbi will remain an important reference indicator for the dollar over a longer period of time, but with the reform of the exchange rate regime, the renminbi will be more reference to a basket of currencies than to dollars."　　"Guo Tianyong said. But Tan Yaling believes that the real need to achieve the nominal effective exchange rate as the level of the renminbi exchange rate is still very difficult. "The dollar-alone system is not going to change with our imagination, the dollar has the largest market share, the price is in dollars, and most importantly, since 2005 the central bank has made reference to a basket of currencies, and the combination and weight of a basket of currencies are not known to the world." ”