Experts analyze high oil price operation situation domestic oil prices will rise in the future

Published "The situation in Libya triggered international crude oil prices and new innovation high domestic oil prices may rise recently," the article on the trend of oil prices forecast.　　 On the same day, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice, decided to start from April 7 0 o'clock will increase the price of steam and diesel, respectively, 500 yuan and 400 yuan per ton, the national average of 90th gasoline and No. 0 diesel oil per litre increased by 0.37 yuan and 0.34 yuan respectively. Why do we have to adjust the price of oil when the inflation pressure is still big in the current domestic inflationary pressures? The National Development and Reform Commission concerned officials explained the reason: first, in recent years, Western Asia, North Africa, especially in Libya, the volatile impact of the international market oil prices continue to rise sharply. In early March, the United States West Texas crude oil and the British North Sea Brent crude oil futures prices reached 105 U.S. dollars per barrel and 116 U.S. dollars, the highest since the end of September 2008, and then continued in a barrel of 100 U.S. dollars and more than 110 U.S. dollars above the high running.　　Most institutions predict that the impact of political unrest on the oil market will not be eliminated in the short term, and that the demand for oil from Japan's post-disaster reconstruction and replacement of nuclear power may increase significantly, and that oil prices will continue to show a high level of operation in the coming period. Secondly, China's oil consumption in 2010 has exceeded 55%, and the situation of oil security is becoming more and more serious.　　Timely adjustment of domestic oil prices, give full play to the adjustment and guidance of price lever, to encourage enterprises to make full use of international and domestic two markets, two resources, to meet the domestic normal and reasonable market demand, conducive to curbing the excessive growth of oil consumption, promote the transformation of economic development mode and resource conservation. Third, over the years, the practice shows that the domestic oil prices deviate from the trend of international market for a long time, deviate from the domestic market supply and demand, will inevitably lead to a serious shortage of oil products market, limited supply, queuing phenomenon occurs frequently, reduce economic efficiency, in turn to promote the overall economic and social operating costs　　Under the precondition of adhering to the mechanism of integration, considering the economic operation and price situation, adjusting the price of domestic refined oil properly, is conducive to the stable operation and sustainable development of national economy. Appropriately postponed the time to adjust prices according to the introduction, with the domestic oil price adjustment "window" opened, many domestic institutions to make forecasts. If the current international market prices and the current oil price mechanism to adjust the domestic product prices, the price increase significantly more than the level of this arrangement.　　In order to minimize the impact on the overall price level, reduce the cost of the oil industry to increase the pressure, the state further compressed oil price adjustment, increased the proportion of enterprises to digest, and appropriately postponed the time to adjust prices. Guotai, chief automotive analyst Zhang Xin, told the media that refineries such as PetroChina Sinopec could face greater pressure.　　At the same time, the price increase of crude oil as a basic industrial product will deepen the market's expectation of inflation. After the oil price adjustment, the country will be in accordance with the 2006 petroleum prices comprehensive reform of the establishment of farmers and other parts of the difficult groups of grainand commonweal industry subsidy mechanism, continue to the grain farmers, fishery (including ocean fishing), forestry, urban public transport, rural road passenger transport (including island and rural waterway passenger transport) subsidies, the taxi industry to grant temporary subsidy. Experts pointed out that at the beginning of March, the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Civil Affairs and other departments issued a joint circular to establish social relief and protection standards and price increases linked to the linkage mechanism to ensure that low-income groups of life is not reduced by rising prices and gradually improved.　　In other words, the increase in the price of refined oil to low-income groups of direct or indirect impact, all localities in accordance with the relevant rules and regulations to solve.　　The future does not rule out the reorientation of future oil prices, industry experts believe it is not ruled out the possibility of higher oil prices. Limbergian, director of the China Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, said the increase in oil prices was not as big as the rise in international oil prices. He believes that the oil price is not in line with international standards, than the international oil price rise much lower.　　International oil prices are still rising, and domestic oil prices may continue to rise.　　Dong Xiucheng, deputy dean of the School of Business Administration at PetroChina University, said that the price of domestic refined oil would rise in view of the continued rise in international oil prices, but in the current price situation, the State may control domestic oil prices, so the increase may not be closely linked to international oil prices.　　For oil prices in the future, the National Information Center senior economist New said Josia, North Africa instability further expanded to major oil-producing countries, combined with the current supply and demand of international oil, the world economic recovery situation, international oil price level will also have a 10 US dollar premium.　　For the indirect and international standards of domestic product prices, New pointed out that the future will continue to rise with international oil prices, but after the international oil price reached a certain level, the adjustment of domestic oil prices will be less than the international oil price rise, adjustment time will be relatively lagging behind. Zhou, vice chairman of China Energy Research Association, also believes that the future pressure on oil prices will remain. Sourceph "> (Executive Editor: Shengliang)