Experts: Foreign investment banks are singing many of China's property market to find high-level buyers

Every reporter Liu Lin from Beijing nearly one months, the real estate industry gradually began to become the "darling" of foreign institutions. Whether in various analysis reports or forums, many foreign agencies have sung many real estate industry. In their eyes, this round of real estate recovery has a long-term, inevitability, not only with liquidity support, more important is the support of rigid demand.　　On the contrary, many institutions and academics from the mainland have expressed strong doubts that the housing market is not strong or sustainable. Morgan Stanley: No bubbles in China's property market the chief economist Wang Qing said in an interview with the daily economic news that there is no bubble in China's property market. "China's real estate has not been a bubble, and the real estate industry itself is very healthy." "Even some fluctuations are mainly due to changes in policy," Wang said. Wang Qing pointed out that over the years China's economic cycle has been "economic slowdown, real estate policy adjustment, real estate recovery, economic recovery," the reincarnation. "Real estate will remain the engine of China's economic growth. And this round of the real estate industry's small yangchun can be sustained. He also pointed out that because of rigid demand support, this round of rising real estate industry will be the most prominent middle and low rooms. "In the middle and low housing market warmer, confidence will increase the recovery to expand to high-end commercial housing market." "Coincidentally, JPMorgan's China chief economist Frank Gong recently expressed a similar view. Frank Gong that the current real estate housing inventory can only be sold for 7-8 months.　　Due to the expected next year may be a shortage of sales, so now the enthusiasm of developers, the second half of the real estate investment will be very active. The UBS Securities report also expresses a similar view, said Wang Tao, China's chief economist, that China's real estate industry will rebound strongly in the second half of this year, driven by demand from the terminal.　　Due to the bullish rigid demand, UBS securities that China's real estate recovery will first be reflected in the middle and low housing market. Experts retort: The rebound is difficult to continue with foreign institutions, domestic institutional analysts hold the opposite view.　　Li Thunderbolt, chief economist from Guotai, told the Daily economic news that the "small spring" of the real estate industry was mainly caused by the ample liquidity brought about by loose monetary policy, and the rigid demand had little to do with it. "The government has invested a lot of money to spur economic growth," he said. But because of overcapacity, these funds are difficult to fully enter the real economy, will naturally be heavily invested in the capital market, which includes both the stock market, bond market, including the real estate markets. "Li Thunderbolt believes that this round of real estate recovery is not so much a rigid demand support, rather, monetary support." "It can be said that this round of recovery is not long-term, nor strong, it can only be seen as a rebound." "In addition, Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University's Economics Institute, said that from the perspective of housing inventory, the same cannot be concluded that real estate investment will strengthen." "Real estate inventory needs to distinguish between the House and the house." Homes may only be sold7-8 months, but adding a faster than this time.　　"Li Thunderbolt also said, to Beijing, for example, if the existing houses and all the house, then the current housing inventory can be sold for 21.9 months, that is, nearly two years time."　　Fire market is to ship?　　The "marriageable girl", which had been the buzz, said it had been explained by some developers and the analysts who sang many real estate as the source of the rigid demand for a real-estate recovery, but this conclusion is now encountering "logical questioning". Liu Yuhui, director of the China Economic Evaluation Center at the Institute of Finance at the Academy of Social Sciences, said: "In order to marry the group to buy a house, very few have their own money to buy." Most are parents even pour into two generations of elders savings to buy a marriage house. "Since the parents of the generation are nearing retirement or have retired, they are seen in economics as an" anti-savings "group, in which the funds they hold are constantly being lost, without the ability to regenerate. Liu Yuhui points out, "the housing is not the money, and the money is the anti-savings group." No country has ever seen a rise in house prices driven by a retirement-saving group. Why do foreign institutions sing high real estate? Liu Yuhui to this reporter analysis, nearly one months, a lot of international capital into the Asia-Pacific capital markets, and international capital tends to choose real estate stocks such blue-chip. "If the international capital wants to fire a wave of market, it will be the real estate industry in the small spring, singing is to be able to continue the big Yangchun." "Liu Yuhui said. It is clear that only in the real estate industry to create a sustainable story, in the current high point, to find a person to take the job.