Experts hot cold water: The reason for buying houses to prevent inflation is basically not tenable

-National policy housing after the market may be able to pull down the housing prices in China's economic fundamentals and strong policy escort, the domestic property market, the stock market recently quickly out of the trough, and the two markets constantly up the new changes, caused by the domestic many well-known experts and scholars of the hot discussion.　　In the recently concluded Beijing International Financial Forum 2009 Summer Report, a number of participants to the rising property market, the stock market poured "cold water", that the two markets are now bubble. Speculation is behind the sharp rise in the property market Gao Huiqing, a member of the National Information Center Expert committee, said in a report, "The reason for buying inflation is basically not tenable."　　"He believes there is speculation behind the sharp rise in house prices and that there may be new adjustments in the future property market." Gao Huiqing that prices in some areas are starting to bubble and may burst. "First of all, even if the sales volume has been very large, but there are still a lot of inventory, generally speaking, the stock did not digest, the industry will not rise, inventory has not digested, the price will not go up, not to mention the price soared." Second, both academics and interested parties believe that house prices are still on the high side, no doubt. Third, the future central to build affordable housing, build low-cost rental, these house lots almost, quality is not very far, but the price will be very far away, these houses once listed, before the high commercial housing will be down, if the other environment again bad, will fall very fierce. "Buying a house has been the hottest topic in recent markets because of inflationary expectations," he said. Gao Huiqing that historically, this reason is basically not tenable, "now the U.S. House is still falling, and at least fall to the end of next year, why the United States is not protected, China to maintain value, China's real estate prices higher than the United States, to protect a high price of real estate, this is not true." Domestic housing prices so large, there may be speculative behavior, in other words, there is a bubble. "When it comes to the real estate bubble, Professor Zhang Liqing, dean of the Central Institute of Finance, also argues that there is still a big bubble in Chinese house prices and that high house prices are not conducive to stimulating domestic demand. "The sustainable growth of the economy needs to rely on people's income to improve their consumption capacity, but if the housing prices are so high, people can not have enough will to spend." Wang Xiaoquan, a researcher at the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic research Institute, points out that the era of real estate profiteering is hard to say, but the most prosperous period should be over. He judged that the future growth of real estate will be reduced, not like the original house prices five or six years four times times, five times times. Some people have judged that China's real estate adjustment is over and that it will soon enter a new high growth period.　　This is unlikely, too optimistic or too real, and the real estate adjustment is far from over. Stocks: It's impossible to return to 6,000 now. For the recent bull market, Zhang Liqing, dean of the Central Institute of Finance, said that in the context of a sharp decline in corporate earnings, China's stock market could not return to 6,000, and now sharesThe city's 4,000 points are at 6,000 points. Zhang Liqing said that the Chinese stock market reached 6000多 points at the end of 2007, but in a short period of time to 1600多 points, and the last six months from 1600 to 2,900 points, or nearly 80%, the Chinese stock market has very large volatility, in the last six months, the rise is very large,　　And this big increase should have a certain rationality, in fact, there is a return of value components in the inside, but also need to start to worry about its bubble, now pay attention to risk, after all, the company's profits in the past year has fallen sharply. Gao Huiqing, a member of the Committee of Experts at the National Information Center, argues that there is a bubble in China's stock market and that the strength of the stock market is more from bank credit. Once the stock market plunges, the risk will be more concentrated in the banks, which will be very destructive to society. "This time, the strength of the stock market is different from the past, the past is retail, and now there are indications that more is coming from the direct or indirect process of bank credit," Gao Huiqing said. This year, China's GDP of 8 to protect 9 is not a big problem, but when overcapacity, the GDP remains 8%, the performance of listed companies may not be synchronized growth, or even the company's performance only to maintain a flat growth, do not lose on it, under normal circumstances can not raise prices to sell, after the stock market will appear macro-heat, micro-cold situation, In this case, the performance of listed companies can not be synchronized with GDP rise. The constant rise in the stock market can be very risky, and once the stock market plunges, the risk will not be distributed and more concentrated in the banks. "[Related news] Shanghai housing, land market May sustained warming morning news reporter Liu Chang report high Power International latest market data show: May Shanghai new Commercial housing market to taste land markets continue to heat up. May Residential market sales did not fall, the ring compared to April Rose 9.7%, a sharp increase of 91% per cent last year. Residential sales increased by 50.6% per cent in January-May this year.　　January-May Shanghai total land area reached 6.42 million square meters, an increase of 116%.　　Li Qingxian, director of the East China Research and Consulting Division, said that although the Shanghai municipal government had since May reiterated that the purchase of a second house must be strictly enforced and that the bank's residential mortgage lending policy had been tightened, the housing market had not fallen back in May, suggesting that the market had accelerated its recovery. This year, the National Real estate market continues to rebound, will gradually stimulate the investment will of developers. Nationwide, the real estate development investment has stabilized slightly, the first 5 months year-on-year slightly rose 6.8%, but the new housing construction area is still falling year-on-year, in the context of sales continue to rise, showing the trend of inventory to continue.　　Li Qingxian that the investment in real estate development is expected to rebound significantly after a period of decline in inventory. Land market, the developers continue to supplement the impact of land reserves, the major urban land market has been warming. January-May Shanghai total land area reached 6.42 million square meters, an increase of 116%. Since June, there have been severalTransaction cases, causing market concern. In early June, a piece of residential land near Zhongshan Park in Changning district was sold at 2.1 times times the price of the floor, and the price was more than 20,000 yuan per square metre, and the land transfer prices had roughly returned to the mid-2008 level.