Experts interpret price-obsessed bureau

Let Beijing new hair market dealers He Weiguo not think of IS, the rapid changes in the price of mung bean unexpectedly changed his way of greeting: "A few months before selling the most fire, go home with the farm of the villagers don't ask ' eat ', but ask ' grow mung bean '." But now the price of mung bean has fallen by 30%.　　No one is going to answer that question. This year, as some of the agricultural and sideline products prices sharp fall, price trends like Ecstasy Bureau, the situation attracts attention.　　Why is it that inflation will come?　　Urgent rise and Fall: how secret? It's not just mung beans that are falling. "May Summer Pepper sold the highest price, up to 5 yuan per catty, only one months, the plunge to 1 yuan more money." It's the first time I've ever met a fall.　　"I don't understand." Over the past few months, some of China's agricultural products in recent years, the price of a few of the rapid rise and fall, first, rice, corn and other food varieties, garlic, vegetables, mung bean and other agricultural products prices rose sharply, for a time, "beans you play", "garlic You ruthless", "corn crazy" and so become popular　　However, in one months, according to relevant statistics, some of the earlier high prices of agricultural and sideline products appeared 10% to 30% different degrees of decline. This kind of fluctuation not only lets the populace not understand, each relevant department also has made the weather fluctuation, the hot money speculation and so on the dissimilarity explanation.　　Behind the different interpretations, highlighting the current situation of some of our products price fluctuations in the complex face: in the climate, supply and demand and other conventional factors, monetary push and even policy changes have an important impact on price fluctuations, together formed a number of commodity prices sharp fall in the chaos of confusion.　　Some experts pointed out that price inflation does not exclude the money speculation this monetary factor, this is the garlic, mung bean price inflation of a major reason, so that this round of commodity prices appear to bubble around the characteristics, when the weather turned good, speculators after the withdrawal of funds, but also exacerbated the price drop. In the price fluctuation of agricultural and sideline products such as vegetable prices, close relationship with the people living class prices also show a new trend.　　In recent one months, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, some hot spots of housing rental prices on average increased by more than 10%, store rental price increases, increase the business costs, many businesses through the price to dissolve costs, which led to a number of hot spots daily service prices. In addition, gas, water and electricity prices are also rising trend. Standard Chartered Bank economist Lihui judged that: "The future of food to the role of rising prices are gradually shrinking, services and other non-food increases in the price of the pulling effect is increasing."　　"Inflation deflation: what is the illusion?"　　Although the National Bureau of Statistics has not yet released the June price index, many experts expect the CPI in June to remain high on more than 3% per cent year-on-year, people are worried: Last year, the high launch of the currency, today will usher in an inflationary era? "Not because of the increase in money to judge that there will be hyperinflation." "Wang Xiaoquan, a professor at the National School of Administration who has been studying the issue of prices for a long time, does not agree with the view that" in the last 20 years asset markets, such as equities and housing, have become pools of currency.The excess currency will be concentrated in the capital markets and may not necessarily lead to higher commodity prices.　　"Wang Xiaoquan judged that the forces leading to inflation were weakening as a result of several factors that curbed inflation, from stable grain production, currency decline and overcapacity. A World Bank study also argues that expansionary monetary policy since the end of 2008 has exacerbated inflationary expectations, but that inflation is fundamentally determined by the supply and demand of goods and services.　　Globally, there is no upward pressure on raw materials and food prices, and domestic factors that contribute to higher food prices are likely to be unsustainable.　　Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that since the end of last year, although the consumer price index has been high, but the chain growth has declined, inflationary pressure moderated. "But a new factor is worth noting that the rapid rise in wages may have an impact on prices, pushing up inflation." "Shangmin, Deputy secretary General of China Development Research Foundation, believes that higher wages will push up the cost of enterprises and increase demand by raising income levels."　　At this point, inflationary pressures will intensify, adding new variables to the inflation risk in the second half of the year.　　However, the current economic situation is complex, the economic well-being often changes between the sudden, Wang Xiaoquan that the future should be more vigilant against the risk of deflation. In the external environment, signs of deflation seem to be looming.　　The Japanese government recently announced that "out of deflation" as the government's most urgent task at the same time, as the European sovereign debt crisis spread, the eurozone economy is showing a sharp contraction, some countries have low inflation, or even negative growth.　　Ups and downs: How to break the circle? In the past few years, the price level of our country has appeared a certain degree of ups and downs in certain period.　　The consumer price index, for example, reached a recent high of 8.7% in February 2008, but fell back to a negative 1.8% over a year later, with more than a 3% rise. Fluctuations in prices are not in line with the intrinsic requirements of economic development.　　Analysts pointed out that, in addition to taking comprehensive measures to increase the supply of domestic agricultural products, reasonable control of the total amount of money and credit, to combat hoarding speculation, such as the existing conventional control measures, but also to start from a deeper level, to achieve the treatment of specimens, can jump out of the cycle of price fluctuations The premise of flat prices is to avoid the ups and downs of economic growth. "Historical experience shows that as long as the economy is growing fast, it is better to control prices."　　Liu Shucheng, deputy director of the economic Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that in recent years, residents ' consumer prices have risen by only two degrees in the past year: July 2004 reached 5.3%, and February 2008 reached 8.7%. "This is related to the sudden increase in economic growth at that time, but also due to the economic growth rate in time to control within a certain range without the consequences of rising prices."　　"Liu Shucheng points out. In addition, regulating inflation expectations is also an important means of reducing price volatility. Yao Jingyuan, a chief economist at the National Bureau of Statistics, argues that too much inflationary expectations could push up inflation's self-fulfilling behaviorAlso bring about short-term fluctuations in prices.　　To manage inflation expectations, on the one hand, it is necessary to regulate the size of the money, on the other hand, by raising the income of residents to increase the affordability of the people, it is also the proper meaning of managing inflation expectation. "This round of rising prices will be particularly concerned about the people, mainly the people to the price increase tolerance in the weakening." Behind the rise in inflation expectations is the fear that people are hovering over income levels. "Wang Xiaoquan said. "This requires the state to seriously promote the reform of income distribution, increase the wage income of workers." ”