Experts predict economic rebound early next year

On the morning of December 1, the China Logistics and Purchasing Association released the November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of 55.2%, up 0.5% from last month.　　Industrial Bank Capital Operations Center chief economist Lu Commissar analysis that early next year China's economy will usher in a relatively strong rebound, but the company's confidence in the prospects for economic stability is insufficient. "Very strong!" Very strong! Lu Commissar heard 55.2% of the data repeatedly sigh, because the index is even higher than SocGen's previous "55.1%" forecast.　　The figures, he argues, suggest that industry has not been affected too much by the power cuts in the third quarter. The report from the China Federation of Logistics and Procurement said that the various indices showed a steady rise in the basic situation. Compared with the previous month, only the procurement index, import index, employee index, supplier distribution time index decreased, the rest of the index to varying degrees, of which production index, finished goods inventory index, purchase price index increased by more than 1%, especially in the purchase price index rose the largest, to 3.6%.　　Of the 4 declines, the import index dropped 2.2%, while the remaining 3 fell by less than 1% per cent.　　Lu County, the staff index down, the production index rose, two opposite trend shows that on the one hand, enterprise production is affected by the seasonal increase, on the one hand, enterprises on the future economic stability of the prospects of confidence is insufficient, so dare not rashly expansion. In addition, the New Order index for the month was 58.3%, up 0.1% from last month. In 20 industries, only paper printing and cultural and educational sporting goods manufacturing, petroleum processing and coking industry, textile industry, beverage manufacturing industry is below 50%, the remaining industries are higher than 50%, especially in the tobacco industry, clothing, shoes and hats manufacturing and fur and feather products industry as the highest, to more than 70%. From the product type, raw materials and energy, intermediates, consumer goods and production of manufactured goods enterprises are higher than 50%.　　Among them, consumer goods and production of manufactured goods enterprises higher, to more than 60%, raw materials and energy enterprises lower, 51.7%. "The September New Order index rose markedly, continuing the upward trend this month, predicting a stronger rebound in China's economy early next year."　　Lu Commissar said. "The November PMI index continued to improve, indicating a higher economic boom." It is consistent with higher growth in investment, exports and consumption since this year.　　Analyst Zhang Liqun Analysis said. But Zhang Liqun also cautioned: "Attention should be paid to the continued correction of industrial growth rates and GDP growth rates, which vary from PMI indices in recent months." The pullback in future exports and investment and consumption growth is likely to be reversed, and the economic growth correction is expected to continue for some time. Comprehensive view, the current economic situation is more complex, the future trend of greater uncertainty. "(Huayan from Beijing)