Experts predict three-quarter economic growth and future policy stability

Every reporter Hu Jian from Beijing keywords: three quarter farewell to the long "two-day" holiday, China's economy officially sailed into the fourth quarter.　　Just the past three quarters is a season full of suspense: in the real estate regulation and the new, energy-saving emission reduction near the big test, RMB appreciation pressure, the world economic recovery is full of many uncertainties, follow-up China's economy will be interpreted?　　GDP growth of about 9%~10% a number of research institutions report that China's GDP growth in the three quarter or will continue to fall, to less than 10%.　　CPI9 month or a year of the highest season and the continued rise in agricultural prices this year, "September CPI will remain high" is a lot of institutions in the early three quarter to give the judgment.　　The short-term interest rate hike is unlikely to take into account the macro situation, most economists do not agree that raising interest rates is a good way to solve the problem.　　Foreign trade September Import and export or double drop experts predicted that the September industrial value added, investment, export and other economic indicators are more than last month continue to fall. GDP: Growth rate of about 9%~10% several research institutes report that China's GDP growth in three quarters may continue to fall to less than 10% per cent.　　The Societe Generale research team reported that GDP would be 9.3% in the three quarter, down 1% in the two quarter, and Zhu Jianfang, chief macro economist at Citic Securities, told the Daily economic news reporter that the three-quarter GDP would be 9.1%. Zhu Jianfang said the PMI rally for two consecutive months showed an increase in industrial expansion, but affected by the holiday factors, industrial growth in September was affected by a certain impact, is expected to grow by about 13.5% in September. "According to the corresponding changes in industry and other industries, we have reached the conclusion that GDP growth is 9.1% in the three quarter." "Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China at the beginning of the year, predicted a three-quarter GDP growth rate of 9.2%, and yesterday he raised the forecast to 9.4%, in an interview with the Daily economic news reporter. He believes the policy pullback has slowed economic growth. "Two quarters and the first half of the data came out, the implementation of the policy has been adjusted, credit for each month to pay more than 100 billion yuan, the fiscal spending is also significantly increased, 4 trillion investment plans to end and beyond the expected foreign trade good, all make economic callback rhythm slowed."　　"While GDP growth in the third quarter is a foregone conclusion, economists generally agree that the fall is smaller than in the second quarter, with most experts predicting more than 9% per cent and four quarters being considered the bottom of this year's growth rate."　　Ma, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Greater China, said that in terms of investment, the government-led new projects are not enough, although export orders are fuller, but the recent rapid appreciation of the renminbi to some of the export companies, so the GDP growth rate is likely to fall to about 8.2% in four quarters. "We expect GDP growth to be 9% per cent in the three quarter and a three-quarter slowdown than we expected," Shen Minggao, chief economist at Citibank, told the Daily economic news., the main reason is that the real estate market decline is limited, the export also did not weaken markedly, now in the observation period.　　"In contrast, the HSBC chief economist for Greater China, Qu Hongbin, is more optimistic, and he believes that a large number of projects under construction and smooth consumption will still support GDP growth of around 9% in the four quarter and even next year." The latest report from Barclays Capital, a foreign-owned institution, said that as Beijing shifted its policy to supporting growth, the expected year-on-year GDP growth would be bottoming out in the four quarter or the first quarter of next year, and inflation would have a chance of easing in the four quarter. "Given the current significant tightening and increasing external uncertainty, our view is that monetary and fiscal policy will remain stable for the remainder of 2010 to ensure relatively fast and steady economic growth," the report said. "Cpi:9 month or a year's peak August CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, refreshing the record 22 months ago.　　Affected by the season and the continued rise in agricultural prices this year, "September CPI will remain high" is a number of institutions in the early three quarter to give the judgment. Zhu Jianfang that the September CPI will reach 3.5%, flat with August, the highest value for the year.　　The daily economic news reporter found that most experts give the CPI forecast is between 3.3%~3.7%. Among many institutions, the CPI forecast for Shanghai Securities is the highest, at 3.9%. Hu Yuaxiao, chief macroeconomic analyst, said in a report that as of September 19, the Ministry of Commerce in the country's 36 large and medium-sized cities to monitor the market price index and the means of production price index respectively 129.56 and 135.82, are up by 1.23% than the end of last month,　　The price of edible agricultural products has been rising for 13 consecutive weeks, although the price of means of production has fluctuated, but the upward trend has not changed. Liu Yuanchun judged September CPI to be about 3.4%, his reason is that, according to the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Agriculture Monitoring of agricultural prices, vegetable prices fell slightly, food prices rose, September CPI or the chain Rose 0.3%, but due to the base, the Year-on-year will fall 0.1%.　　He also believes that the October CPI pullback will be more pronounced as the base increases and autumn grain is expected to reap a bumper harvest. However, some research institutions are not optimistic about the October CPI trend.　　Everbright Securities issued a report that, although the economy is in the downward process, but due to the monetary environment, the future short-term price pressure is still large. Everbright Securities point out the main reason is: This year's natural disasters at home and abroad, exacerbated the pressure of rising food prices; After the first half of 2008 food prices soared, the global arable land increased, resulting in 2009 to the first half of this year, the international grain market has been depressed, which has dampened the enthusiasm of farmers to In turn, the future price of agricultural products will enter another upward cycle; the loose monetary policy of the world will inevitably cause the currency to flow into the commodity field, forming the phenomenon of hoarding, driving up and so on to fry high commodity price, the imported inflationThe pressure will still be great.　　Interest rates: Short-term interest rate increases are unlikely although the current CPI growth is high, but given the macro situation, economists do not agree that raising interest rates is a good way to solve the problem. China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in Washington 8th that the aggressive fiscal measures introduced in 2008 and relatively loose monetary policy have created inflationary risks and asset bubbles.　　China will "carefully consider" the corresponding fiscal and monetary policies in the coming months after measuring the economy's movements.　　But he also points out that China still has more leeway to implement aggressive fiscal policies to boost the economy, as debt accounts for a relatively low share of GDP.　　Chang Kin, a Chinese economist at Barclays Capital, says there is no sign that the government has started a cycle of interest rate hikes because of uncertainties in the external economy, a faster appreciation of the renminbi, a tightening of the property market and a still-manageable inflation.　　Analysts believe that at present, China's price level is still in the normal range, even if the price of agricultural products more than 5% growth is not surprising, monetary policy to get rid of traditional understanding, the introduction of the corresponding livelihood policies to hedge interest rate calls more practical, and raise interest rates for some industries, especially the real estate industry is　　Zuo, chief economist at Galaxy Securities, argues that the current inflation structure in China has made it difficult for price hikes to be eliminated by raising interest rates, which could lead to a rapid burst of property bubbles. Many media-hyped negative interest rates are not uncommon in China, and are usually long in the run-up to the economy, and the fact that residents have no great resistance to negative interest rates.　　Zuo also believes that improper interest rate hikes may also lead to a hard landing for China's economy.　　Foreign trade: September Import and Export or "double drop" September data forecast, industrial value added, investment, export and other economic indicators are lower than last month, affected by the festive release of purchasing power, consumption is basically stable, the economic situation is still slowing down.　　The Citic Securities research report points out that domestic demand growth is expected to rebound in September and import and export growth has declined. Zhu Jianfang said that the festival effect will drive consumption growth, estimated September total retail sales of consumer goods than last month rebounded, the year-on-year growth of about 18.6%.　　Investment, although the promotion of energy-saving emission reduction policy has led to a slowdown in manufacturing investment, but infrastructure projects and security housing investment accelerated, investment growth overall stability, is expected to January-September fixed asset investment growth of 24.6%. Exports grew by 34.4% in August, imports rose 35.2% per cent year-on-year, and economists considered the base factor and the weakness of the global economic recovery as the two figures would fall, especially as exports fell more. Citic Securities is expected to increase exports by 23.8% in September and import growth by 18.9%.　　The trade surplus is expected to be 20.8 billion dollars.　　Societe Generale also believes that exports year-on-year or up 24.4%, a sharp drop of 10% per cent last month, imports Year-on-year or 23.1%, compared to last month, a sharp drop of 12.1%, the trade surplus of 17.5 billion, narrowed to less than 20 billion. Liu Yuanchun thatCompared to exports, investment is more worrying, not real estate investment has fallen by 20% since the beginning of the year, real estate investment with regulation more stringent future or will fall sharply.　　Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities China, said the four-quarter GDP growth rate will continue to slow down to achieve a soft landing, the policy will be dominated by stability. Liu Yuanchun said that the second half of the macroeconomic policy is loose and tight, the direction will emphasize the "regional-driven macro to strategic emerging industries to drive the old industry" change. "Relaxing the scope of private investment and developing strategic emerging industries can play a very good role in hedging the economic downturn and will not be subject to large-scale adjustment under the uncertainty of the world economy." ”