Experts say China's inflationary pressures are not big in the short term

Edible oil, refined oil prices bullish experts: the current inflation pressure in China is not in domestic aviation kerosene ex-factory price increase of 460 yuan/ton and the golden Arowana cooking oil prices adjusted, the expected increase in refined oil pricing is also increasingly strong. Will the rise in oil prices lead to inflation, which in turn leads to stagflation?　　In this respect, the industry experts interviewed by reporters said that the above price increase on the CPI, although China's prices may be higher in the future, but because the aggregate demand is not very strong, food prices rise in space is not very small, so short-term inflation pressure is not big. The price of refined oil to the CPI conduction limited recent international crude oil prices continue to strengthen, last week, the New York Commodity Futures exchange crude oil futures June contract prices again close to 60 U.S. dollars/barrel. The price is about 53 U.S. dollars/barrel gains of more than 4% at the time of the country's increase in oil prices by March 25.　　According to the National Development and Reform Commission recently released the oil price formation mechanism, the oil price hike seems logical. The recent rise in the price of aviation kerosene and a number of local oil product wholesale suspended, further strengthening the gasoline, diesel prices are expected to rise.　　The correlation analysis pointed out that the petrol, diesel and aviation kerosene prices have always been up at the same time, even if in succession, but also aviation kerosene later, the aviation kerosene was the first to follow the international crude oil price rise, then the price of petrol, diesel, there is no reason to sit still. Many research institutes predict that the maximum retail price of petrol and diesel will be increased by about 500 yuan/ton in the near future, and the adjustment range is 8.8% and 10% respectively.　　Jiemin, chairman of PetroChina, said at a recent shareholder meeting that the new mechanism of domestic sales of refined oil retail price is expected to increase by 500 yuan/ton. Zhang Bin, deputy director of the international Financial Room of the Academy of Social Sciences, said the rise in oil prices had little impact on CPI, but would be significantly conductive to PPI. And empirical research has proved that the price of PPI transmission to the consumer price index will be very limited, so the rise in oil prices have little impact on the CPI.　　In his view, China's prices may be higher in the future, but because the aggregate demand is not very strong, food prices increase space is small, short-term inflation pressure in China is not very large, stagflation pressure will not be too big. Inflation in local prices is still difficult to form a few days ago, the Golden Dragon Fish announced the increase in oil prices since May 25, a rise of 10%.　　The rise in the price of soy oil has sparked expectations of higher prices for food, vegetables and edible oil, as well as inflation. According to the National Bureau of Statistics monitoring data on the changes in the prices of major agricultural products in the country's 200 main counties in early May, the price increase of wheat raw and corn raw was only slightly higher than the previous statistics by 0.06% and 0.82%, while Indica Rice fell 1.06%, soybean and rapeseed fell by 0.74%, 1.25%. Raw materials such as soybeans are still falling, it is difficult to support the long-term rise of edible oil prices, so the current price of finished edible oil can only be short-term fluctuations. In this case, a massive and sustained rise in prices-inflation in Chinais unlikely to occur. Zhang bin believes that the current level of China's CPI is not high, but the base of the second half of last year small, the second half of this year will naturally turn to positive growth, but even if the chain rose, the range will not be big. And the stagnation pressure depends on policy orientation, which is the key to the real estate industry. Real estate investment is not to go, employment is facing greater difficulties, wages have no room to rise, and the wages of migrant workers, workers decided that food prices do not have a higher basis, then the overall CPI upward pressure will not be too big.　　Exports, real estate and labor costs are more closely linked to food prices, including CPI. Wang Qing, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region, said that partial price increases were not inflation, such as the rise in the price of edible oil as an individual event. China faces deflationary pressures all year, as China's foreign trade dependence is 60%, while Chinese exports have fallen for 7 consecutive months.　　With the rapid decline of external demand under the impact of domestic demand cannot keep up, overcapacity will always be a big problem. Wanguo Macroeconomic analyst Li Huiyong that China is now demand-driven growth, demand decline and inflation of the two stagflation factors are difficult to appear at the same time. He also said the CPI was negative for a maximum of one to two quarters, June and July is low, the two quarter may be lower than the first quarter of 1%-2%, October may be converted to positive. "China's loose monetary policy does not need to be diverted, but it needs to be adjusted, for example through open market operations." "Li Huiyong said.