Experts say containment of high house prices cannot be hesitated

Property market Blowout. Wang Bright Morning Post data Click here to view all financial news Pictures The current property market blowout hidden What the editor's note last weekend, the Shanghai property market ushered in 17 real estate blowout-type of the opening frenzy, whether the city center or suburbs, in Songjiang or Nanhui, these real estate sales offices are lined up in the long team. Not only the people who are holding the currency to buy can not understand, even developers are quite surprised. Is the Shanghai property market a resurgence of prosperity or is it weaving a new bubble?　　Today, the morning paper published 4 Experts "property notes" from different angles to analyze the complex Shanghai property market. Regulation of house prices Government must clear role Niezmin real estate overheating, the third weekend in June, Shanghai's property market ushered in 17 blowout-type opening frenzy, whether the city center or suburbs, in Songjiang or Nanhui, the sales offices of these properties are lined up before the long team. And the hot buying tide corresponds to the high prices, according to incomplete statistics, some of the real estate than the beginning of the year has risen more than 30%. Since May, housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai have risen sharply, according to the Oriental Morning Post, which corresponds to more than half a year ago, the housing market under the influence of the global financial crisis fell into a slump. A considerable number of people believe that prices in Shanghai and other land has bottomed out, not just a "spring". In hindsight, the trend of housing prices in recent months can be traced back to last October's economic stimulus plan, specific to the real estate industry has cut the deed and loan interest rates, exemption from stamp duty, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other areas also introduced a specific bailout policy, such as the government directly to buy commercial housing developers. In the past six months, the central bank's loose monetary policy has also contributed to the rise in house prices. In the real economy does not appear to improve the situation, a large number of credit funds have to enter the capital market, the direct result is the rapid rise in house prices and stock indices.　　For some investors and buyers, based on expectations of future inflation, investment in real estate is also the risk of avoiding inflation. For developers and speculators, the current market is an excellent opportunity, the tight capital chain and weak demand face once let them constantly to the decision-making level lobbying, pressure to chart through the crisis. Now is a wish to achieve. But for homebuyers, I am afraid it is a nightmare, originally look forward to the downward price, can alleviate the unbearable high house price pain, this market, consumer wait-and-see emotional end, more consumers to join the purchase of the army, resulting from the backlog after the "blowout" phenomenon, house price growth is faster. The booming housing market has rescued developers and GDP, who will save buyers? Clearly, the government is in a dilemma, the current housing market inventory pressure is still very large, the national housing prices did not fully rebound, if the regulation of improper policies, house prices steep fall, will be the end of last year's real estate stimulus policy. But the public's sensitivity to the rise in house prices has given the government the necessary attention, not just a mere formality.　　What should the government do now? First, when we talk about the impact of regulatory policies on house price changes, we actually assume the government's neutral role. ButThis is not the case, since the 1998 housing reform began, the government (especially local government) has been mired in the interests of the real estate industry entanglement. In the process of real estate, the government changed the role of the former regulator, to become the land market maker, low-cost agricultural land expropriation, auction to developers. Fast-growing house prices can guarantee the growth rate of land transfer, in order to maintain a steady stream of real estate tax revenue to supplement the local government's stretched fiscal balance. Therefore, in the long run, the government should withdraw from the interest pattern of the real estate industry, gradually open up the monopoly on the first level land market, convert from a market maker to a regulator, and distribute the proceeds of land to consumers and landless peasants. At the same time, we should abolish restrictive measures such as tax, credit and so on which restrict investment and restrain consumption in the past.　　This is also the real benefit of the people, in enterprises, not only can effectively reduce housing prices, but also can increase the profits of developers, resulting in both supply and demand, more will be brought about by the instability of land is invisible, is the real protection of people's livelihood, to ensure the smooth development of housing prices policy. Secondly, we must make clear the difference between the commercial housing and the affordable house, commercial housing, higher education, senior health care and other needs of higher costs, the coverage is difficult to expand, it is impossible to meet the needs of all, and should not be included in the government's public goods, but also can not hope to rely on the market to solve the problem of ownership of all people, This is something that human history never had.　　As for each person to have a house to live, it is the basic social security level, the government should be from low-cost housing, to the inability to provide money subsidies and other channels to meet this part of the housing demand, rather than through the control of housing prices (including affordable housing) to meet. At the same time, high housing prices, so that the value of high-priced real estate can also dispel the question of higher housing prices. Tiebout (Tiebout) published a highly cited paper in 1956, introducing the "general equilibrium" of the interaction between residents and public goods, he thinks that the incentive for local governments to invest in public goods stems from the good public goods construction will attract more affluent people to live and invest, so as to promote the development of the real estate industry, Promote economic growth and form a virtuous circle.　　In the early period of Pudong construction, the investment in basic education was a good way to promote the property appreciation in Pudong, rather than the housing bubble caused by the overheated investment. (The author is a researcher of Shanghai Institute of Finance and Law) industrial capital also to fry room this trouble big Gu Jian hair on weekend, Shanghai property market ushered in 17 real estate blowout type of the opening frenzy. People can't help asking: What happened to the Shanghai property market?　　What is behind the housing market blowout? Since the Spring Festival, the Shanghai housing market and the national housing market, there has been a wave of small spring market, a change in the second half of last year very depressed decline, daily turnover from 300-400 sets to 600-700 sets, the main object is to marry, improve and other rigid needs. However, since April, real estate investors have come into the market, daily turnover from 600-700 setsUp to more than 1000 sets, to reach the Shanghai real estate market during the boom period of the level. At the same time, prices have also increased in varying degrees, many of the increase in real estate more than double digits.　　Therefore, the admission of real estate investors, the housing market supply and demand relations have reversed, resulting in a market blowout. Affected by the international financial crisis, China's economy began to slide in the second half of last year, which is the most affected by the most important manufacturing, China's foreign trade exports have serious negative growth, and the impact so far has not been a turnaround. Therefore, in the last 4 trillion investment planning and this year's many industrial revitalization planning, the manufacturing industry, especially foreign trade export enterprises did not get out of the dilemma, on the contrary, there was a phenomenon of capital industry began to overflow to the outside. Some private bosses with millions of, tens of millions of or even billions of dollars believe that the best way to find funds in the current situation is to buy a house. However, the huge risk of the Shanghai Composite Index falling from 6000多 to 1600多 points has deterred those who are stirring.　　On the contrary, the Shanghai property market, which has not been set up in the past, is very attractive to these industrial capitals, buy a few suites right when the bank savings is quite common, more than 10 sets, or even dozens of sets are not individual phenomenon, this situation in the previous is very rare. Under the influence of the positive fiscal policy and the moderately loose monetary policy, China's 1-May RMB loans increased by 5.84 trillion yuan, more than 3.72 trillion yuan. At the end of May, the balance of RMB loans increased by as much as 30.6%, which was not seen in more than 10 years. According to the central bank's Shanghai headquarters Statistics, May Shanghai Chinese banks added RMB personal consumption loans of 8.69 billion yuan, the year-on-year increase of 7.04 billion yuan, a single monthly increase in personal consumption loans since 2000 a record high. Among them, the personal housing loan increased by 7.87 billion yuan, created in the past 4 years a single month increment new high, more than 6.46 billion yuan, more than last month to increase 4.48 billion yuan. The month, the new room loan increased 4.57 billion yuan, second-hand housing loans increased by 3.3 billion yuan.　　From the above data, monetary policy is not only moderately loose, but very loose. After the financial crisis in the second half of 2008 years, countries around the world have adopted quantitative easing of monetary policy and active fiscal policy. Strongly stimulated by expectations of a weaker dollar and global inflation, international commodity prices have continued to soar, with international crude oil rising from $37 a barrel to $70 trillion, "input" inflationary pressures, and, in anticipation of inflation, more and more money holders opting to enter the property market, To achieve asset value. According to statistics of Shanghai Bureau of Statistics, the first five months of this year, the city's real estate development investment, commercial housing construction area, commercial housing new start area, the completion of commercial housing area four indicators fell 2.7%, 3.6%, 16.2% and 8.5% respectively Year-on-year, only the commercial housing sales growth of 19.6%. 2009 1-April began to appear for 4 consecutive months of rapid rise, and in May broke through 2 million square meters, and 2006 has so farHowever, 8 months of turnover exceeded 2 million square meters, of which 5 were in the property market most popular in 2007, and May 2009 turnover nearly 1.5 again to break through 2 million square meters, reached 2.04 million square meters. In fact, the Shanghai property market has never been set up since 2000: In 2005 the people who bought the house were caught in 2006, but they were set in 2007. 2007, the people who bought the house in 2008, but today to solve the set.　　As a result, real estate is the best investment in inflation expectations. To sum up, the housing market blowout led to the recovery of the real estate market, which is also the government's pleasure to see, GDP went up, fiscal revenue has.　　But if our housing recovery is at the expense of the real economy, should we rethink how to avoid it? (author of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, real Estate research Center) buy a house or not buy, this is a problem. Shen Jo last week, the Shanghai property market ushered in 17 real estate blowout-type of the opening frenzy, whether the city center or suburbs, the sales offices of these real estate long team, individual property also shake the house.　　("Oriental Morning Post" June 22, 2009) Shanghai citizens are looking at the trend of house prices, among the 875 Shanghai residents who participated in Oriental Opinion Shanghai house Price survey, 54.52% people believe that Shanghai house prices have bottomed out. From the developer's psychology, blowout type of the opening, reflects the developers on the trend of house prices, if not optimistic, they will continue to cover, anyway, the most tense period of funding has survived.　　In spite of this blowout, developers of the "Hunger Marketing" (that is, the intention to reduce production, in order to regulate supply and demand relations, manufacturing demand "illusion", the maintenance of higher prices and profit margins) work. From home buyers, property is no more than other items, both consumer goods and investment goods. In the past few years, overall prices have been rising, and buying Shanghai houses is not a disadvantage--at least more secure than the stock market.　　Compared to the real experience, many experts look at the empty rhetoric is very weak. So the more financial crisis, the more the risk of inflation, the hands of cash investors will choose real estate as the direction of investment.　　In line with this, in the last year experienced a half year of real estate decline, partly because of marriage, because the tianding and accumulated so-called "rigid demand" of consumers, a see real estate recovery, especially 3 April almost a week a price rise, have shot, pushing prices continue to rise. Investors shot, real consumers also shot, this is the real picture of the rise in prices these few months.　　I also have a lot of people around because of work location change, home Tim Baby and other reasons in the first half of this year to change the house, these are certainly not all bubbles. In fact, many people sing bad real estate is only "politically correct", we love to hear, like to see more stock market as "politically correct", everyone loves to listen. But because of the unpredictability of the market, no one can see it.The general public is at a loss only to be opinionated or to fall in the wind. But it's odd that while most people believe that rising prices are a fact, nearly half (49.26%) of people firmly believe that for those who need a home in the next two years, it is "not a good time to buy a house" and they seem to be waiting for the future to fall.　　Only 17.03% of people think it's a good time to buy a house. It should be noted here that the price of anything, including house prices, is not determined by those who wait to see the change, but by those who participate in the transaction process (note that it is not necessarily true that the transaction succeeds). Looking back, in the second half of last year's housing prices low, how many people realize that this is an opportunity, should be shot?　　And it is those who shot to some extent affect the current housing prices. There is also a so-called prisoner's dilemma, that is, the hope of buying a house price rises, people who do not buy a house, hope that prices fall. In fact, such a dilemma does not exist entirely, because the people who bought the house, if there is a desire for further improvement, do not expect a rise in house prices, this is one aspect. On the other hand, in addition to the hope of selling a large house, for a sum of money and a small house for the elderly, almost all ordinary people want to live a little more spacious, lots better, better lighting. Rising house prices are not good for people who use property as a consumer product, but for investors with dozens of of homes, that's another story.　　Buy or not buy, decide to ask yourself before, buy to do what, the answer is natural. Curb the policy of high house prices can no longer be hesitant biologist diffuse if in China looking for can last more than 10 years "go cattle" market, that is only real estate one. Recent domestic housing prices show that such a bull market has not been affected by the financial crisis, is still continuing to madness. The housing sales price index has been growing continuously in the last 3 months, with a May quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.6%, up 0.2% from last month. Housing sales, the trend of warmer is also very clear. May The National commercial housing sales area of a significant increase of 51.31%, the increase in April than the expansion of the 12.3%, the chain increased by 11.13%.　　Not only that, all over the country lining up to buy houses, snapping and other phenomena reappear, Wenzhou fried Housing Group also high-profile back out of the lake. It is inconceivable that all this near madness is in the background of the financial crisis.　　Admittedly, many recent economic signs seem to suggest that the macroeconomic recovery has tended to be obvious, but it must be pointed out that the macroeconomic recovery is by no means a reason to prop up house prices, on the contrary, that regulators must be vigilant about the distortions in the property market to prevent the eventual impediment to economic recovery. There is no denying that policy options on the real estate market are a problem for regulators. If simply from the point of view of the total economic target, choose to stimulate the real estate market activity again, can play an accident half and the Magic timesEffect。 But the crux of the matter is whether such short-sighted policy options are in line with the long-term objectives of economic restructuring and whether they are responsive to the strategic direction of sustainable economic growth.　　Sadly, the answer is just the opposite. The leading position of the real estate market is due to the last round of financial crisis. 11 years ago, the impact of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, through real estate to stimulate economic growth has become the policy preference, and the subsequent economic performance has proved this point. China's economy can quickly emerge from the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and the emergence of a few years of rapid economic growth, the real estate industry is not. The key to the mechanism is that the real estate industry boom can play a very strong investment multiplier effect. The calculation shows that the real estate industry investment multiplier reached 2.5 to 3 times times, the first of all industries. Therefore, real estate investment can influence the growth of the whole economy through multiple, which is the "best choice" to achieve the goal of total economic growth. Unfortunately, this "best choice" is at the expense of enormous social costs. Is the so-called passage of the moment, although now face the impact of the overseas financial crisis, but the real estate market positioning and influence has been transformed. The surge in housing prices over the past decade has severely weakened the public's ability and willingness to consume. Now, in order to buy a house, almost the need to exhaust the two generations of three families of all the savings, which will inevitably lead to public consumption expenditure of prudence and compression, or even austerity, curb other consumer spending. Not only the formation of restrictions on consumer consumption, the real estate industry itself has a high leverage characteristics, the developer costs generally accounted for 30% of the total investment, which means that the real estate project occupies a very large scale of bank credit assets, resulting in other industrial investment has caused obvious extrusion effect. Visible, the real estate industry's excessive prosperity can be from the formal optimization of the total index, but behind it is the other more market consumption demand atrophy, other more industry investment growth is weak. Inside and out, not only the role of real estate-driven economic growth is not as big as it seems, but more importantly, the result is a departure from the policy direction of stimulating domestic demand and optimizing industrial structure.　　It can be said that the real estate industry, "a single big" optimized the total economic data, but it hurt the quality of economic growth. Unfortunately, path dependence and habitual thinking still affect the policy choice of relevant departments. In the price consolidation shock but more than a year later, the recent surge in house prices not only let prices go back completely, even the miracle of high innovation. In contrast, the economic recovery seems to be slowing down a lot.　　In this contrast gap, it is not difficult to see the impact of some policy departments and role. The most typical point, based on the property market speculative properties, developers often artificially create tension to manipulate prices, the recent queuing to buy a house, speculation room number, pressure plate hoarding phenomenon is typical performance. Unfortunately, although these actions should be severely dealt with under the relevant laws and regulations, it is rare in reality that the administration is responsible for the law. The explosion of rigid demand and developers of the hype thus "Complement each other ", the house price in its share of the palm up. The absence of administrative supervision is not simply dereliction of duty, but more important because of its own interests. For local finance, only the real estate market is active to allow land transfer proceeds to increase, thereby easing the crisis of local financial difficulties.　　It is in such a realistic policy situation, will appear Vanke 40 days 4 billion yuan to land, the real estate to 15,000 yuan/square meters of floor land price Auction news, and these news let people feel real estate industry has returned to the crazy era of 2007 years. Historical experience shows that the adjustment of the real estate market policy tone does not allow slightest hesitation, otherwise there will be a regressive policy effect, and ultimately deviate from the good expectations of the public. The policy direction that needs to be reiterated is to curb high housing prices, not only to find ways to allow the price of commercial housing to return to rationality, while the Government should fully assume the affordable housing supply for low-income families. This most basic real estate market policy direction can not change because of the financial crisis, and also can not let the financial crisis to help push prices upward reasons.　　Otherwise, the public consumption capacity eroded by high house prices will eventually hinder the pace of economic recovery and become a potential trigger for the next economic crisis, and the immediate effects of the policy can only be long-term economic hardship. Therefore, the policy choice around the real estate market is actually the game between the long-term goal and the short-term goal, the difference between the economic emergency and the mechanism health, and also the realistic test to the regulation Department, especially the local regulation department.