Experts say housing prices in China will fall in the first half of the year

Experts China's housing bubble in the first half of the year first-tier city housing prices will fall 2011, housing prices can fall? This year is definitely a tightening policy year for the real estate market.　　But this year's housing market, prices are still the main theme. From the beginning to the end of the year, the state launched three consecutive real estate control measures, of which the "4 16 real estate New Deal" is rated as the history of the most stringent regulatory measures. However, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, November China's 70 large and medium-sized housing sales prices rose 7.7%, the chain Rose 0.3%.　　A number of professional institutions forecast that the national average house price rise this year should be about 7%.　　According to a survey released by the central bank December 15, 75.5% of depositors in 50 cities nationwide said "house prices are too high to accept", but at the same time, "real estate investment" has been ranked as the preferred investment by respondents. In this paradox, can house prices fall? Regulation so far, house prices in a small rise in the secret of the rise in the rise?　　Is high house price really a knot? Guest Zhu Zhengyi, vice president of China Real Estate Association Yang Hongxu Shanghai Institute of Real Estate Comprehensive research Minister Yang Shaofeng Beijing, the president of the Organization "This part of the price rose up in March is obviously a bubble" Zhu Zhengyi: Real Estate industry contribution to the economy, so this year's policy adjustment of the main tone is to curb the price of some cities　　Rose, and did not say lower prices. The Housing Society in the "Twelve-Five" plan for the real estate industry in the proposed draft, reported to dilute the target expectations of the price reduction, otherwise it will easily lead to confusion in market signals.　　At present, whether the 17 session of the V plenary or Central Economic Work conference, did not mention the issue of housing prices or the concept of price reduction, is to avoid the huge market fluctuations. Yang Hongxu: From the beginning of the implementation of the "Country 11", to "4 16 10", and then to the "9 29 New Deal", the central three times the introduction of property control policy, crackdown on the property market. Overall, house prices have risen this year, but the gains have narrowed markedly over the past year, with prices actually rising 25% per cent last year, up from around One-third last year. In this sense, regulation has achieved some success.　　However, it has not been able to let a small number of high prices of urban housing prices fall some, somewhat regret. Yang Shaofeng: Whether it is from the rental ratio or the income ratio of housing prices, China's housing prices bubble factor is very large, which has a far-reaching impact on the development of China's economy and improve people's livelihood. From the market point of View, 2007 ago, in Beijing, for example, the vast majority of the project price increases in hundreds of yuan/square meters, each opening up 3,500 yuan, up to 1000 yuan. However, from 2007 onwards, many projects within one months to increase the 5000 yuan/square meters.　　This year, this part of the price rises, especially from March, is clearly a bubble, and this part of the bubble should be squeezed out. "In the next six months the first-tier city housing prices will fall" Yang Hongxu: The latest data show that this January-November, the National Real estate Development Enterprise housing constructionArea of 3.843 billion square meters, an increase of 28.6% per cent, housing new construction area of 1.451 billion square meters, growth of 48.7%, the National Real estate development enterprises to complete land acquisition area of 361 million square meters, the year-on-year increase of 33.2%. The new start area, means that the four quarter to next year, pre-sale of commercial housing will be a large increase in the size of the land acquisition area, it means that the second half of next year until the two years later, the size of the commercial housing for pre-sale will continue to expand.　　Supply increases, and demand is clearly shrinking, which means that many cities will have a continuing oversupply of commercial housing in the next two quarters or even longer.　　It is expected that in the next less than half a year, 70 large and medium-sized cities, especially in the first tier city, will show a downward trend under the influence of three major factors, such as strong regulation pressure, market oversupply, and enterprises becoming poorer. Although some cities in November, some large housing enterprises also reaped considerable, but should pay special attention to this round of regulation and control policy, the most important "limit purchase" and "Limit lending" policy, has a certain "after the effect".　　So the market will stay cool until the next two quarters. Yang Shaofeng: Only when the real estate is short of money, developers will reduce prices. Now developers have a shortage of funds, small and medium-sized enterprises are generally nervous. And now suspend the financing of listed housing enterprises, strengthen the supervision of the pre-sale funds, from all aspects of the developers financing channels blocked, forcing developers must sell the house to carry out the withdrawal of funds.　　Then the developers will start to pay attention to sales, this time selling the house market will become a buying house market.　　Half a year later, there will be big fluctuations in house prices, as they did in 2008, and a large number of project prices will fall as soon as early next year. Zhu Zhengyi: The pressure of falling house prices is quite large.　　In an environment where inflation continues to rise and the stock market is depressed, there is a dearth of investment channels, and despite the high prices, there are still a lot of people who are more interested in investing in the industry.　　In addition, this year, the land, labor, building materials and other prices are higher, which also from the cost of housing prices have a certain role in promoting. From the market body, including investors, banks, local governments, are more optimistic about the future of real estate development, especially local governments. But the local government is also more helpless, leaving the land to sell income, many local governments simply can not meet the financial needs, this is a complex structural contradictions. At present, many cities in the eastern region have adopted the policy of restricting purchase, this has a certain inhibitory effect on high house prices, but in this pattern, the funds will be forced to turn to the Midwest two or three-line cities, and thus push up the level of housing prices in the Midwest, and from the east, these cities are precisely the most strained land supply in China and the largest market demand in the region　　, so prices in these areas are hard to fall. Curb house prices need to crack the land finance Yang Hongxu: Real estate Tax Indeed the arrow is in the string, but not the hair. When it comes out, it's mainly about waiting for the right time. If the price is stabilizedThe effect is not good, investment speculative demand still stir up trouble, then will introduce.　　Property tax on house prices is bad, but to curb the strength of house prices, there are doubts. First of all, the pilot is only the individual cities, the scope is too small to have a significant impact on the overall market, and in the national market may still be protracted. Secondly, in the pilot phase, the tax base of the property tax is small and the tax rate is low. From the scope of taxation, only to two sets of above and a certain area of housing expropriation, most of the home will be exempted from housing. Less than 1% of property taxes are unlikely to scare most investors away in recent years, when house prices are up about 20% per cent annually. However, after the introduction of the real estate tax pilot, in the future for many years, the scope of the levy can only be more and more, the tax rate may be raised, which will affect the investor's mentality and enthusiasm to some extent.　　In short, real estate tax short-term help curb house prices, long-term effect can not be extravagant. According to the current inflation trend, it is very likely that the recent interest rate hike, next year may raise interest rate 2~3 times, has entered the interest rate hike cycle.　　Historical experience shows that in the process of tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates, the real estate market will gradually cool down, especially after more than half of the rate hike cycle, will obviously suppress the rise in house prices. Yang Shaofeng: One of the most important reasons for high house prices is that the housing companies hoard lots of land, to restrain the housing enterprises from hoarding, the root is the policy of the local government to execute the crackdown on the land. But at present, the local government is both an athlete and a referee.　　So to let the interests of local government and the interests of land decoupling, this is a root cause, this problem is not resolved, no matter how many systems are not used to crack high housing prices from the land to govern, and solve the root of the land market dilemma is to crack the land finance. The solution to this problem is how to levy a property tax. Although the implementation of the property tax is likely to curb house prices, but I do not think that the purpose of the property tax is to lower prices, the property tax is from the root cause of the change in our China's fiscal system.　　Local governments have a relatively stable source of revenue, and this time they are no longer too dependent on land. Zhu Zhengyi: If the policy tightens further, the supply scale of the guaranteed housing can increase rapidly, which will greatly restrain the high house price, but it still takes some time.