Experts say PMI is falling back on seasonal factors don't worry about economic slowdown

On the morning of February 1, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Index (PMI) was 52.9% in January, falling for two consecutive months, suggesting that the economy is likely to continue its pullback.　　Economists argue that PMI data is still in the zone of good economic performance, without worrying too much about the downturn and delaying the timing of inflation.　　Why did the PMI data fall back? The China Logistics and Purchasing Association (CFLP) released the January 2011 China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), with data of 52.9%, down 1% from last month.　　continued to fall after December 2010. From the point of view of the various indices, the overall appearance of a drop in trend. In comparison with last month, the volume index, import index, purchase price index and raw material inventory index rose, with import indices and purchase price indices rising by more than 2%, while the remaining indices declined in varying degrees.　　Among them, the production index, the new export Order index, the backlog order index, the employee index fell more than 2%, especially the backlog order index fell most significantly, fell 4.2%. "The rate of correction for PMI data exceeded our expectations and that of the market.　　"Societe Generale, chief economist at Societe Generale Capital Operations Center, told Sina Finance that its previous forecast was 54.4% per cent, while the general market forecast was 53.5%.　　A number of economists have cited "seasonal factors" when they analyzed the reasons for the PMI retreat, as most of the Spring festival in the early part of February, the Spring Festival earlier this year, had a greater impact on the January data.　　Will employment fall? "Near the Spring Festival, a large number of migrant workers return home, resulting in a sharp decline in employment index, and production is not normal, but also led to a decline in production index, and because of the closure of the upstream and downstream enterprises, business orders will follow."　　Lu Commissar thinks the correlation index chain reaction is the seasonal factor causes.　　The figures showed a sharp drop in production indices and employment indices in January, with a production index of 55.3%, down 2.2% from last month, with an employee index of 49%, down 2.5% from last month.　　So there is an analysis of "does it mean that unemployment is rising"?　　Zuo, chief economist at Galaxy Securities, says the real reason for the decline in employment indices remains to be seen, judging by the true state of the labour market after the Spring festival, if labor shortages indicate that there is no employment decline.　　Will the price of raw materials rise? "It is worth noting that the new export order index for January was 50.7%, down 2.8% from last month, and it is important to observe whether export decline will become a trend."　　Lu Commissar reminded him that it was a noteworthy economic factor that led to the January PMI retreat.　　Zuo that the third and fourth-quarter growth in Europe and the United States was weak, the market was not prosperous, and the decline in export orders was in line with the slow growth of the world economy. Meanwhile, the January price index rebounded 2.6% to 69.3%。 Prices rose significantly rebound, mainly driven by food prices, agricultural and food processing industry, foodstuffs industry purchase price index rose to more than 70%, an increase of more than 7%.　　The prices of products closely related to energy and resources remain high, and the price indices of petroleum processing, steel smelting and processing are kept above 80%.　　China Logistics and Procurement Federation special analyst Zhang analysis that the new export orders index down, the purchase price index continues to improve, indicating that the enterprise orders to reduce and increase the cost of pressure, enterprises faced with greater difficulties. "The rise in the price index, which is linked to higher prices for raw materials and commodities, boils down to a weakening of the dollar by US QE, which affects the price of commodities priced in dollars, and, on the other hand, financial institutions ' currencies become speculative capital and push up commodity prices. "Zuo to Sina Finance and Economics said," This year buys the price index may have the situation which rises to limit to stop, but overall also will climb. "According to the analysis, inflationary pressures have rebounded from the price indices bought.　　The current price rise has the upstream and downstream linkage conduction fast, and so on, and so on, to control inflation increased difficulties.　　Will the economy slide? According to the survey of manufacturing purchasing managers in January, Zhang, a special analyst of China Logistics and Purchasing Association, said: "The January PMI continued to fall after December, indicating that the recent trend of economic stabilization is still unclear and the potential for further correction is lurking." Comprehensive view of the current economic operation is still in a state of adjustment, the future trend is not clear. "But zuo that an appropriate economic correction is a situation that should be welcomed, and that the Chinese economy will not have to pursue more than 10 percentage points of growth, otherwise it is difficult to control inflation." "The PMI index is still above 50% per cent, indicating that the economy is still in its normal operating range and that there is no possibility of a sharp decline," she cautioned. "Lu Commissar also to Sina Finance said:" Although the PMI declines, but should not be too worried about the risk of the economic downturn, and can not because of worries about the economic downturn delayed the timing of inflation control. "(Huayan from Beijing)