Experts say prices fall 20% does not affect the economy June is the best time to raise interest rates

Held by Fudan University School of Management, "Fudan Xingye asked the classroom" Yesterday, Deutsche Bank China chief economist Ma in an interview, said in the complex domestic and foreign economic situation, the domestic macro-control thinking should increase the use of exchange rate and interest rate two economic control means.　　In his view, June is the best time to raise interest rates, and a 20% drop in house prices has no negative impact on macroeconomics. Recently, the property market policy has frequently caused the turmoil of the capital market, which makes the domestic property market more concerned about being regulated. Ma bluntly, "Regulation of the property market must not go to moderate, 3-4 months of regulation is necessary, and house prices down about 20% of China's overall economy has no negative impact, but to control the capital bubble." "" The property market regulation relaxed not. Premature relaxation is likely to make regulation a 2009-year mistake, a bad check. "Ma is particularly worried by the recent questioning of the market's tightening policy.　　In terms of economics, he said, the overall regulatory cycle lasted for 3-4 months, and the new deal had just been "full moon" and the Future regulation "had a long way to go". In his view, the fall in house prices, if controlled in a reasonable proportion, not only on the overall national economy has no negative impact, but has a role in promoting. "The banking sector has analysed that it is tolerable to fall by 40%." "As far as the entire national economy is concerned, the 20% per cent fall is more reasonable and will not adversely affect the economy and is feasible," he said. If this number is exceeded, there may be some negative effects. "Ma Frankly, to guide the housing prices down to a reasonable interval is only one of the purposes of property control, to solve long-term institutional problems is the treatment of the fundamental." First, the establishment of a secure housing, I would like to put this system into the Twelve-Five planning, as a long-term economic policy. "Through 5-7 years of effort, the ultimate housing will be about 50% of the overall supply." Secondly, he is a staunch supporter of property tax. According to his judgement, the introduction of the property tax will completely solve the problem of "local land finance", thus "untie" the local finance from the land element. Wang Yipeng