Experts say prices will not rise sharply in China

Experts and the industry Analysis of the impact of price increases in China's commodity prices will not appear a sharp rise (hot Assessment) The price of resources products will push higher inflation expectations on capital price bubbles need to be particularly vigilant Xu Starfish Chen Liang Oil, electricity, water this year turns up, now natural gas is also stepping into the price, How much is the impact of the price rise of various resource products on the price level? The Commodity futures market has seen a sharp rally this year, and how will the inflation situation next year be affected? To this end, some experts and industry people interviewed.　　Many experts believe that China's prices will not appear a large increase. Higher prices push up the cost of industrial products, statistics show that the first three quarters of this year GDP (GDP) growth of 7.7%, compared with the same period last year, resource prices generally fell, September domestic CPI (consumer price index) year-on-year decline 0.8%,ppi (industrial factory prices) fell 10.11　　%, the lower price index level has left room for the prices of resources products. After more than a year of price decline has become a prerequisite for this round of adjustment, this is the national Development and Reform Commission in recent times after the adjustment, will not lead to inflation, one of the main basis, but from the recent two-month trend, PPI and CPI growth has both entered the rising channel, is expected to be "　　This reflects the establishment of the current economic recovery, but it also brings strong expectations of inflation, and raising the price of resources products will further boost the expectations.　　An expert in the Chinese Academy of Finance and Finance said in an interview that with the increase in electricity prices, water prices and oil prices, the cost of industrial products would be pushed higher, which would affect the overall price index, although it is not yet obvious, but at least the price level is going up rather than falling. Water, electricity and fuel are the intermediate inputs of most industries, and the rise in prices will eventually lift the cost of production and transmit it to other related industries.　　It is estimated that the indirect impact of water on prices is small, the price increase of 10% only to push up prices 0.02%, the indirect impact of electricity, electricity price increased by 10%, can indirectly stimulate the overall price level of 0.21%. From the point of view of residents consumption, the price of means of production will surely be transmitted to downstream consumer goods through the industrial chain.　　Although the short term has not yet been transmitted to the consumer sector, but also has created a rise in expectations.　　The price of agricultural products will be transmitted to the CPI although a shares recently adjusted trend, but the futures market is still good, the current leading varieties of non-ferrous metals-copper prices continue to refresh the new year highs, another important species-although the recent gains in crude oil is not prominent, but the market is expected this year, the oil price may also be tempted to test the 85-90 dollar position.　　In addition, since the entry into the November, because of the market expectations of inflation, as well as the impact of the snowstorm in the north, the most closely linked with the CPI agricultural futures prices also follow the rise in industrial products, the current domestic soybean, soybean meal, corn, soybean oil and other agricultural futures prices have set a new year Nonferrous Metals, steel and other industriesThe impact of commodity prices on CPI data is more subtle, and agricultural products because of the short industry chain, once the price increase on the impact of the CPI is most obvious.　　Since 2006, the trend of domestic futures market basically shows the same trend as CPI, but the change of CPI is slower than that of futures market. Shangdong, a macro analyst at Galaxy Futures, said: "The key to the impact of higher commodity prices on the CPI is to see if the gains are sustainable." Generally, the rise in upstream production will take several months to reach the final consumer goods. According to the current trend of commodity markets, to lead to higher CPI levels such as more than 5%, it may take a year to 1.5 of time. "The traditional inflation risk is not in the four-quarter, and a series of price changes began to emerge nationwide."　　Experts say that rising product prices do not necessarily lead to inflation, but bubbles in capital prices need to be particularly vigilant. Li, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China is facing three levels of upward pressure: one is imported inflation, the other is in some areas, some industries are in short supply, and the third is the impact of the money supply. But Li also said there are at least two types of factors that make it difficult for Chinese prices to rise sharply. One is that the savings rate remains at a very high level, and the second is overcapacity. "There is little risk of inflation in China's traditional sense of the future." "The effect of oversupply may be stronger than the effect of increased money supply," he explained. "While inflation will not pose an important threat to China's economy in the short term, the build-up of asset price bubbles needs to be highly valued." To overcome the impact of the international financial crisis, the economic stimulus policies adopted by various countries have led to the proliferation of liquidity.　　In this case, international commodity prices continue to rise, and asset price inflation is bound to lead to subsistence, industrial prices. Fan, a member of the central Bank's Monetary policy committee, cautioned that although inflation would not come soon, the risk of property bubbles and asset bubbles was indeed a matter of alarm.