Experts say the current deflation in China has actually occurred at the end of the CPI positive

Experts predict CPI will be positive at the end of the year big inflation difficult to appear in this newspaper (reporter Shang Fly) The second half of the economy is inflation or deflation?　　Yesterday, in the "Search for a new engine of China's economy-the road to economic growth in South China" forum, Lu Zhong, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, fan, chief economist and director of economic forecasting, gathered, discussed the current social and economic focus. Experts say China's real economy has bottomed out in the second half of last year's domestic economic development encountered difficulties, the whole society is almost unanimously because of the international financial crisis. In yesterday's forum, the experts gave a very different answer. "The first is that our economy has experienced cyclical callbacks. Lu Zhong, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that domestic economic development, generally 3-4 years will be recalled, but this time the rise has been maintained for five or six years.　　The impact of the financial crisis has brought our internal contradictions to prominence. Economic adjustment has not ended, the domestic macro-economic level has not improved significantly, but the recent stock market and the property market is a substantial increase, many experts said because of inflationary expectations led to such a result. So, is the current Chinese economy inflation or deflation?　　When does inflation come? "Our response to the financial crisis has begun to bear fruit and is better than expected. Fan said, according to the test, the real economy in China this 1 ~ February to reach the bottom, three months ahead of the fall, has been a small rebound for three consecutive months.　　Especially in May this year, the trend of economic downturn has been curbed. "There is already deflation," said Zhuang, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank's representative office in China, "to prevent deflation this year and inflation next year". PPI 6 consecutive months, CPI 4 consecutive months of negative growth, in accordance with international judgments, in fact, there has been deflation.　　And "The next period may also be negative."　　Peng, director of China research at Barclays Capital, said according to their forecasts, China's CPI will be positive by the end of this year, about 2% next year, about 3.5% in the second half of next year. "Globally, inflationary pressures are not imminent, and massive inflation will be hard to come by next year," said Shen, deputy general manager and economist at the Research division of China International Finance Limited.