Experts: The second half of the CPI and PPI are expected to be positive

Securities Times reporter Rock Snow The National Bureau of Statistics yesterday released the May economic data, of which, the total consumer price level (CPI) fell 1.4% year-on-year, industrial products ex-factory (PPI) fell 7.2%, both continue to negative growth.　　In this regard, industry experts believe that based on the elimination of seasonal factors after the price chain trend to judge the second half of the CPI and PPI will be positive. CPI and PPI in the second half of the year compared with April, the May CPI decline narrowed by 0.1%.　　National Economic Information Center Economic Forecast department Director of macroeconomic room, researcher New Analysis, some of the agricultural prices in May has a certain degree of rebound, which is the main reason for the May CPI decline narrowed. According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, from April to May this year, corn, rice, sugar, soybeans and other agricultural prices showed a different degree of rebound trend. "This will have a certain impact on the rebound in the May CPI rise.　　New said, but because the increase is limited, the impact is not big, so May CPI decline narrowed only 0.1%. In addition, the May PPI fell 7.2% from a year earlier, a 0.6% per cent increase from April.　　Li Huiyong, Chief macro analyst at the Wanguo Securities Institute, said the price drop was inevitable as a result of the contraction in liquidity and shrinking demand in the second half of last year, and the excess of production material was greater than consumer goods, making PPI decline more than CPI. For future CPI and PPI trends, JPMorgan's China regional managing director and China Securities Market Chairman Jing Ulrich expect CPI and PPI to turn positive in the second half of the year. She believes the fall in pork prices in the second half of the year will be eliminated, and the economy is still in the process of recovery, so CPI may become positive in the second half.　　In addition, commodity demand is also in the process of recovery, the dollar is now weakening trend, will increase the possibility of higher commodity prices, so the second half of the PPI will also be positive. Southwest Securities Chief macro analyst Dongxiangan that May price data as expected to maintain a smooth recovery trend, based on the elimination of seasonal factors after the price chain trend to judge, CPI, PPI trend shows that the Chinese economy continues to emerge from the deflationary shadow. CPI Year-on-year in February saw the bottom, PPI 3 quarter to see bottom.　　He expects the CPI to be positive before and after August, when domestic PPI and CPI will rise by the end of the year. Monetary policy will not be major in the first 5 months of this year, the CPI and PPI have been negative, causing concern about the economic recovery and deflation concerns.　　The recent meeting of the State Council put forward that the impact of the international financial crisis on China has not yet bottomed out, the economic development of unstable factors, China's smooth recovery of the foundation is not stable. In this regard, Li Huiyong that the current price has not stopped, the economy has a partial recovery, macro-policy should be to maintain growth as the keynote, keep the current loose money, policy focus can be adjusted, part of the transfer to optimize the structure, such as expandingMouth support, increase consumption input.　　As the economy picks up, deflation will ease and governments should shift their attention to stabilizing prices rather than preventing deflation. A new study released yesterday by CICC pointed to a recent upward trend in major commodities, coupled with a sustained easing of China's monetary policies that ensured ample liquidity, as well as a sustained rebound in China's economy.　　Deflationary pressures will gradually ease as domestic demand recovers and international commodity prices rebound. According to the current economic situation, Gao Shanwen Securities chief economist, said CPI and PPI have reached the bottom of the area, the decline in space is small. Monetary policy is expected to be no big adjustment this year. He said the trend towards deflation in the second half of the year would be clear, and the process of increasing deflation was over. He expects the CPI to return to its positive range by the end of next year, at the latest. 　　Now the risk of deflation has dropped sharply, and the risk of inflation, while noteworthy, is not yet in sight. Dongxiangan also believes that overall prices will remain stable this year, with high growth and moderate inflation likely to occur next year, and that the central bank's monetary policy could be fine-tuned in the 4th quarter of this year.