Experts: There is little likelihood of significant inflation in the near future

Dr. Zhang, Institute of Quantitative Economics and technology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China Net Yang Jia China network December 7 News "2010" Economic Blue Book released and China Economic Situation analysis and forecast seminar ", The conference analyzes and forecasts the economic development trends and major problems faced by China in the 2009 and 2010, and forecasts the main indicators of national economy in 2009-2010.　　China network live broadcast. Zhang, Ph. D., the Institute of Quantitative Economics and Technology of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, discusses the problems that may be faced in 2010, and the more important issue is inflationary expectations. We have two points of view on this issue: first, from the demand level, the supply and demand pattern has not changed. After this basic judgment is fixed, then there is no obvious inflation in the near future. We know that since 1998, the problem of insufficient demand has already mentioned the heat of the discussion, but the problem of insufficient demand in the years has not improved significantly. The most important manifestation of inadequate demand is overcapacity. In the 2003, we had an overheated discussion about overcapacity, whether it was academia, government or some companies that were concerned about overcapacity. But the heated discussion did not produce any substantive results, and I said the result was that there was no crisis in the economy due to overcapacity.　　At that time, a reason is that foreign trade is better, excess capacity through the foreign trade channel digestion. ' We were exposed to external shocks in 2008 because of the financial crisis, ' he said. We wrote in the report that in the 2009-year quarter, 19 sectors in 24 industries had varying degrees of overcapacity. According to the latest data, the third quarter of the data tells us that 24 sectors of 21 industries have overcapacity, so the current overcapacity is not part of the industry overcapacity, but to rise to a whole level. Such judgments support a lack of demand, which is actually a downward pressure on prices. So we think there is little likelihood of a significant inflation in the near future.