Exploring the path of loan-changing oil-energy diplomacy through financial crisis

Li Dongxu Chen Xiao Nearly two years, a so-called "loan for oil," the agreement frequently appeared in the eyes of the people, the outside to give "loan for oil" adjectives include: Chinese energy companies "go out" of the weapon, China's energy security shield.　　To ensure the long-term stability of crude oil supply is an important part of China's national economic security, in order to achieve this goal, after the financial crisis, the Chinese government in the source of oil and import mode of adaptation, which, "loan for oil" is an important step. But can "loan for oil" really protect China's oil security? Is it just a by-product of the financial crisis?　　Is there room for expansion in the meaning of "loan for oil"?　　The crisis provides a hotbed of cooperation. After the financial crisis broke out in 2008, the international oil price was violently turbulent, falling from the historical highs of more than $140/barrel, and the economy of oil producing countries, especially the developing oil and gas resource countries, was severely hit, which led some oil and gas resource countries to have a In Russia, for example, statistics show that in early 2009, Russia's largest oil company, Russian oil Company (Rosneft) liabilities of 21.2 billion U.S. dollars, Russian gas industry Company (Gazprom) debt of more than 61 billion U.S. dollars, Russian oil pipeline transportation Company (Transneft)　　7.7 billion dollars in debt. In addition, the global financial crisis has also dealt a heavy blow to investment in oil and gas resources. By contrast, China's economy has been less impacted and its reserves have climbed, to $1.95 trillion trillion in 2008.　　China's oil and gas consumption has also continued to flourish.　　At the same time, in 2009, China's oil overseas dependence exceeded the international cordon of 50% for the first time, reaching 52%.　　"Lack of money" to Russia to change the former in the Sino-Russian oil cooperation in the not very positive attitude, and actively express the willingness to borrow money from China, and "oil-deficient" China has not let the opportunity to slip away, both sides clicked. In February 2009, China lent 15 billion dollars and 10 billion dollars to Russian Rosneft and Transneft respectively. It is reported that the 15 billion dollars are enough to cover the $8.5 billion trillion debt owed by Rosneft to foreign banks in 2009.　　And the 10 billion dollars lent to Transneft for the Chinese extension of the Russian Far East oil pipeline (Scovoro-Sino-Russian border). As a guarantee of repayment, Russia promises to supply 300 million tonnes of oil to China within the next 20 years. From the 90 's began to talk about the Sino-Russian oil pipeline, after several twists and turns, finally ushered in the dawn of the oil transmission.　　Sino-Russian oil and financing cooperation opened the financial crisis after the "loan for oil" model precedent. "Loan for oil," in fact, will only be the financial sector and oil trade in the field of two agreements, not to take the money of the bank directly to buy oil, nor is the oil as collateral for repayment. Wang Zhen, the dean of the College of Business Administration at PetroChina University, explained to the first financial daily that the oil is not in the hands of the Chinese. "WithBody said that China's 25 billion U.S. dollars is not directly used to buy 300 million tons of oil, but Russia according to the agreed rate to repay the loan, China in accordance with the agreed price of the two sides to pay the oil.　　In other words, Russia is receiving 25 billion of billions of dollars in emergency loans, China is the next 20 years of oil supply commitments. As the crisis deepens and oil prices continue to slump, developing oil and gas resource countries are looking for "the Golden Lord" in the world, and developed countries are unable to extricate themselves from the recession because of the sluggish domestic economy.　　As a result, more and more cash-strapped oil and gas resource countries have turned to the world's largest foreign exchange reserves China. In February 2009, the National Development Bank (hereinafter referred to as "National Bank") provided Venezuelan National Petroleum Corporation (PDVSA) with a loan of 4 billion US dollars in exchange for the latter's commitment to stabilize the supply of crude oil; in March, China signed a 1 billion dollar "loan for oil" agreement with Angola; April,　　PetroChina and Kazakhstan's national Oil and Gas Company (KazMunaiGas) signed a 5 billion dollar "loan for oil" framework agreement. In May, the bank signed a 10-year "loan for oil" agreement with Petrobras (Petrobras), in return for Petrobras to supply Sinopec with a total of 97.5 million tonnes of oil in the future, and in June, the bank provided 4 billion U.S. dollars to the Turkmen lender,　　For the development of the world's fourth South Rothain oil and gas field; in July, PetroChina signed an agreement with Ecuador's national oil Company (Petroecuador) to pay a 1 billion-dollar advance and a monthly purchase of 2.88 million barrels of crude oil in the next two years.　　A losing deal? In just 6 months, China has "destroyed the city" in the international energy market at a single monthly rate, covering the three emerging oil and gas producing areas in South America, Central Asia and Africa. Foreign media said this is China in the "energy to copy bottom", but also affixed to the "looting" label.　　At the same time, many domestic people not only for China's layout of the international energy market secretly applauded, but also "loan for oil" risk and economic costs expressed concern. In the case of Sino-Russian "loan for oil", some people question that it is a loss of trading, some people doubt Russia's ability to perform.　　However, we can still from the words of the relevant people to see the Sino-Russian "loan for oil" the true face. Zhang, the director of the National Energy Agency, said in a media interview on the loan interest rate, China has proposed three options for Russia to choose from, one is fixed interest, the other is the change of Libor (London interbank lending rate) plus fixed points, third is floating Libor plus floating points, Russia hope is the third kind. Oil price is builders, Zhang said the formula for oil prices, according to the world's recognized market prices of several crude oil to calculate the weighted.　　Therefore, the interest rate of the Russian loan repayment is not the outside conjecture 6% fixed rate, but follows the common commercial loan rule, the Chinese side buys the oil the price also follows the international crude oil market the basic rule. Wang Zhen said, of course, is not a lossThe sale of the loan will have to be compared to the price difference between the international oil prices and the expected oil prices, but the agreement is, in principle, mutually beneficial.　　Doubts about Russia's ability to perform have also been a long-standing challenge, but Xu Xiaojie, a researcher at the Institute for World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that Russia's performance so far has been very good, according to the agreement to supply China's oil barrels are also many. Wang Haiyun, director of the Energy Diplomacy Research Center of China International Research Foundation, said in a media interview that the Russian Far East resources have been repeatedly demonstrated by both sides. China signed a 6 billion-dollar long-term oil trade contract with Russia in 2005, and despite differences in oil prices, implementation is generally good, with 14 million ~1500 tons of oil being transported into China every year.　　The long-term oil trade agreement in the "loan for Oil" agreement, signed in 2009, could be seen as a continuation of the 2005 agreement. Upstream and downstream "package" in this series of "loan for oil" agreement, and Kazakhstan signed agreements and other agreements are different. Whether it is Russia, Venezuela or Angola or Ecuador, China's loans are for long-term oil trade contracts, and can be seen as "trade oil".　　But in return, it was PetroChina's 47% per cent stake in the Mangistau of Kazakhstan's fifth-largest oil company. According to Xu Xiaojie, a Russian Gazprom-affiliated oil company and Russia's Luke Oil Company (Lukoil) earlier attempted to acquire a stake in the Manchester stock, but the Kazakh side did not agree.　　It was China's offer of concessional loans that allowed PetroChina to finally get a stake in the Manchester stock. The oil and gas companies that buy into the resource countries are equivalent to the upstream exploration areas of the resource countries, which is a better choice for PetroChina.　　Wang said that, despite the risk of investment, but the possibility of earning is very high. He said that Russia's strict control of the upstream areas, easy to keep foreign companies involved, so and Russia can only take the form of "trade oil", and Kazakhstan's oil and gas industry than Russia developed, or foreign companies, which makes it possible for China to enter the Haguo upstream area.　　In Wang's opinion, "loan for oil" let the opportunity become bigger, so that may eventually become a reality. At present, unconventional oil exploration and development, such as heavy oil and deep-sea oil, have become a new atmosphere in the global oil industry, which makes Latin American countries such as Venezuela and Brazil the new darling of the world oil industry.　　Venezuela has more than 531 billion barrels of heavy oil, more than 264 billion barrels of Saudi Arabia, and the world's richest oil reserves, according to the New York Times's latest forecast by the US government. But even if the United States is Venezuela's largest oil exporter, the defiant president, Hugo Chávez, does not buy the U.S. account, but rather the Chinese experience, technology and funding for developing countries. In May this year, the Chinese government dispatched the International Center for Economic and exchangeConsultant team to provide advisory services to Venezuela's economic development, is highly valued by Chavez. After signing a 4 billion dollar "loan for oil" deal with China in 2009, Chavez praised the country's "one of the world's richest banks" and "offered to lend a hand to Venezuela" in a speech on Venezuelan television. In April 2010, Venezuela and China again signed a "loan for oil" program, the amount of up to 20 billion U.S. dollars, to jointly develop with China in the Junin heavy oil belt of the 4 project.　　As a repayment guarantee, the state oil company and PetroChina signed the 25-year oil purchase and sale contract. Between China and Venezuela lies the largest ocean in the world-the Pacific Ocean. And not to mention the safety issue, freight is a huge expense.　　So why did China travel so far across half the world to South America to extract oil? In fact, the Sino-Commission "loan for Oil" agreement is part of the "package" cooperation plan. Cross-investment between China and the Commission is becoming a "benefit community" of the upstream and downstream integration. Among the mining companies in Venezuela, the national oil company is holding 60%, and PetroChina accounts for 40% of the shares. PetroChina holds 60% per cent of its oil refining joint ventures in China, while the state oil company accounts for 40% of the shares, while the two sides will also set up an oil transport company, each accounting for 50% per cent.　　This combination of upstream and downstream integration is also considered to be the consolidation of mutual reliance in the industry, helping to circumvent the risk of cooperation. Chinese yuan "borrow oil to go to sea" in South America, China clearly has deeper consideration.　　China's latest $20 billion trillion in loans to Venezuela, 10 billion dollars in the form of RMB 70 billion yuan, is used for infrastructure construction in Venezuela. Experts say that, given the current convertibility of the renminbi, Venezuela will only be able to buy Chinese product equipment or technical services after getting the renminbi.　　This will not only help to drive China's manufacturing industry and other related industries to go out, but also to China's renminbi investment to find new channels, as much as possible. In May 2009, the leaders of China and Brazil signed a "loan for oil" agreement, as well as a consensus on the use of local currency for trade in goods and services.　　Mei Xinyu, deputy researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the basic pattern of CMB's trade is China's deficit, which means China will be able to sell its currency to Brazil in exchange for real resources. However, whether this model can be vigorously promoted remains to be seen. Zha Daojiong, a professor at the School of International Relations at Peking University, told our correspondent that in the form of a renminbi loan for China's oil and gas exploration equipment, engineering services locked customers, but whether to expand in renminbi-denominated, clearing oil trade, but also with specific countries to talk about. Wang Zhen also believes that only the resource countries in the mechanical equipment or development services are indeed in demand in China, renminbi-denominated settlement only good promotion.