Export growth will slow in the next few months

The August trade figures released by the General Administration of customs on September 10 showed export growth of 34.4% per cent, significantly lower than the July growth rate, and lower than the previous "First financial chief economist forecast" of 35.38% growth forecasts.　　Analysts said in an interview that the decline in export growth was mainly influenced by national macro-control policies, and that export growth is likely to remain weak in the next few months. J.P. Morgan said in a study 10th that the slowdown in export growth should be affected by the cancellation of the export rebate policy in the middle of next month, the 406 commodities that were launched on July 15.　　Before the export tax rebate policy ceased to be implemented, domestic enterprises accelerated the export speed, which led to a big increase in exports in June and distorted export figures in 5 June. According to JPMorgan, global GDP growth will continue to be lower than the same period in the second half of 2010, with manufacturing still falling and demand weaker than expected and corporate adjustment intensifying, from the external environment.　　China's export growth is likely to remain weak in the next few months.　　Liu Yan, chief macro analyst at National Yuan Securities, said to the first Financial Secretary, the August export growth rate lower than expected is the government's active regulation of the results, in recent months, the import and export tax policy adjustment and the increase in workers ' wages and other measures, all led to increased costs of export products, and imports of raw materials also led to import growth faster than export growth.　　"The likelihood of a continued slowdown in export growth in the coming months is a consensus at the Toronto G20 summit that the government's deficit will be halved by 2013, and that a reduction in international demand will further affect China's export growth," he said. In a study released today, the Bank's Financial research Center said the slowdown in the European debt crisis and the weakness of economic recovery in Europe and the United States continued, but the economy in the short term a slight two bottom pressure still remain, especially in Europe and the United States, the trade friction between China and the U.S. is in the growing trend, and the recent economic slowdown in ASEAN, China's export growth　　Are the reasons for the slowdown in export growth in August.　　The report predicts future export growth will continue to slow, and import growth will remain stable.　　Some analysts also remain relatively optimistic about exports, Shanghai Bai Cheng Investment advisory chief macroeconomic analyst Cai also said to the first Financial Secretary, the August exports than the absolute value of exports in July reduced by more than 5 billion U.S. dollars, in the second half of the Western procurement season should be the beginning of a certain decline, it is worth vigilance.　　But he stressed that the August data could not be judged whether it was an inflection point for the year's exports, because, on the one hand, the August PMI data in the new export order index rebounded 1 points, indicating that exports continue to rebound; On the other hand, the western second half of the procurement season began, from the historical experience, the second half of exports will be better than the first half.　　China's trade surplus of $20.03 billion in August was 30.4% per cent year-on-year, compared with a month-on-month increase of 35.2%, which was significantly higher than export growth, according to figures released by the General administration of customs. Chua also said that the August import recovery showed domestic demand was picking up, as evidenced by the August PMI rally. He kept the annual importCautious optimism predicts a 2010 trade surplus of 130 billion.　　Liu Yan said that in January-August the total surplus had exceeded the official "annual surplus of 100 billion" target, and recently the regulator wants to keep the full-year surplus within 150 billion, "but the pressure to achieve 150 billion targets is still great." The Bank's financial research Center said that while China's trade surplus has fallen from its July highs, it has reverted to the normal level of 2007-2008, with the expectation that the future monthly trade surplus will continue to fluctuate at around $20 billion trillion, and that the annual trade surplus will gradually become normal.