External demand weak export should not be blind optimistic pressure or in the first quarter of the show

Reporter Sun Chenhua intern Experiment, a reporter from the economic reference newspaper, interviewed a number of industry experts said that although the 2010 export recovery is strong, but currently not blind optimism, external demand rebound slowly will be our exports face the biggest challenge.　　Exchange rate pressure, trade friction and other factors under the comprehensive effect of the 2011 export difficulty will increase, the annual foreign trade growth will be more imports as a support. December 2010 China's exports, import value both refreshed the previous one months has just set the all-time record. Customs 10th released the import and export data show that China's import and export value of 295.22 billion U.S. dollars, compared with the same period last year (same) growth of 21.4%. Exports of 154.15 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 17.9%, imports of 141.07 billion U.S. dollars, growth of 25.6%.　　December month trade surplus of 13.08 billion U.S. dollars, reduced by 28.9%.　　From the data of the year 2010, China's foreign trade and import and export value of the growth rate of 34.7%, in far exceeding the expected high growth, our foreign trade value of 2,972,760,000,000 U.S. dollars, has been approaching the 3 trillion dollar of the integer gateway. "China's trade growth in 2011 will certainly be lower than in 2010." Uibe, dean of the International Economic Research Institute Sangbai in an interview with the economic reference newspaper, said that the 2010 China's foreign trade performance is so excellent, mainly based on the weak in 2009. Affected by the financial crisis, major overseas importers in 2009 were generally worried that the world economy would be mired in a prolonged slump, reducing inventories and reducing imports of goods.　　With the effects of economic stimulus policies in the December 2009, and the increase in individual consumer demand, overseas importers began to replenish their inventories. Sangbai said: "But this year the conditions are no longer available, the decline in foreign trade growth has been inevitable." Foreign trade growth is expected to be around 15% to 20% in 2011.　　"There is analysis that the 2010 export exceeding expectations rebound, more due to the financial crisis after the end of the west to inventory and the late replenishment of inventory stage brought about by the explosion of demand, which is a short-term behavior, not to follow, behind the lack of a certain consumer purchasing power recovery support." "From the current point of view, the recovery of external demand, especially in Europe and the United States market demand recovery, will become the 2011 China's largest foreign trade uncertainty factor."　　"Song, director of the International Trade Research Institute of World Economic and Political Studies, said to the economic reference newspaper." Li Jian, a researcher at the Institute of Commerce, said that although imports and exports increased by more than 30% in 2010, the real increase was more than 10% after discounting the price factor in the 2008 before the financial crisis. In addition, as countries ' stimulus programmes recede, the recovery of the major developed economies has generally weakened and the global economy faces adjustment.　　The weakness of demand will be further demonstrated after Christmas and the New Year. Liang Yanfen, director of World Economic and Trade Research Department, Institute of Commerce, the pace of world economic recovery has slowed markedly since the second half of 2010. For now, the uncertainties that plague the US economy are not effectively eased in the short term, with the US economy likely to slow further in 2011, with the IMF expected to grow at 2.3%. At the same time, the eurozone economy has been affected by a lack of debt and employment, as well as a drag on financial market turmoil. In addition, the economic development of the eurozone member countries is still outstanding, the stability and balanced development of the eurozone economy has caused resistance.　　The IMF expects the eurozone to grow at 1.7% per cent in 2010, the lowest in advanced economies and 1.5% per cent in 2011. "The slowdown in world economic growth in the second half of 2010 has also had an impact on trade, as the government's economic stimulus measures are over and companies are phasing out inventories." The United Nations expects world trade growth to decline from 2010 to 10.5% in 2011 to 6.5%.　　"Liang Yanfen said. In addition to external demand, the domestic supply level also creates pressure on exports. Wang Jinbin, a professor of economic studies at Renmin University of China, said that with the deepening of the industrial restructuring process, the export of energy-consuming products related to resources would be more restricted.　　Wang Jinbin cautioned that it is worth noting that there are two risks, one is that this year, China's renminbi appreciation pressure will increase, in addition to Europe and the United States and Japan, emerging market countries or also will join the pressure to the renminbi team; second, the economic recovery process, the exchange rate war triggered a trade war risk is also gradually increasing Wang Jinbin that, overall, the 2011 export pressure will be in the first half of the year, especially the first quarter highlights, if the European and American Economic recovery optimistic, the second half of China's exports will also improve.