Fan: The economy stepped into the second half to increase structural adjustment

Wang Bin macro-economic recovery is increasingly evident, the National Information Center, chief economist and director of the Ministry of Economy forecast in Friday Huaan Fund held in the "Rui-chi Salon" Hangzhou railway station received CBN interview, said that the current package of policy effect has been the first time, the government to expand spending on the growth of investment in And the financial side of society has been a tight turn loose.　　The country now needs to increase consumption stimulation, so that the domestic can form a virtuous circle of investment and consumption as soon as possible. The early policy has obvious effect fan points out that the policy of the early 2009 has been significantly effective, and will be further improved later. According to data from credit data and electricity generation, GDP growth has been significantly higher than 7% per cent in the two quarter, to three or four, or 8% or 9%. Therefore, throughout the 2009, the pace of economic growth accelerated from quarter to year, with no problem at the end.　　And the performance of listed companies in this year also hopes to improve quarterly. Fan said monetary policy should now return to a moderately loose policy range.　　There are two important factors that influence the direction, intensity, focus or rhythm of monetary policy, first, macroeconomic fundamentals, and then the price level. Fan points out that the current strong macroeconomic rebound is still driven by policy.　　But the economic rebound and economic recovery are two concepts, and the economic recovery must be based on a new round of large-scale investment by companies, which, if driven by massive government investment, will not last long. Fan that this year, the new projects are mainly state-owned investment, but the growth rate of non-state-owned investment is accelerated because of last year's tightening policy, many private enterprise projects are limited by medium-and long-term loans, investment growth is not fast. This year, the medium and long term loans are relatively loose, so that some of the earlier projects started to speed up the implementation.　　However, the civil new projects are still few, especially the new construction area of real Estate this 1 ~ May or negative growth of 16%. For the future trend of price levels, Fan said, the current domestic price level is still negative, but it is possible in the second half of this year, one months, the CPI from negative positive.　　PPI should be available at the beginning of next year. On the possible fine-tuning of monetary policy, fan that the monetary policy fine-tuning should first ensure that the momentum of economic stabilization and recovery has been consolidated and developed. Future interest rates may not be lowered and bank reserve ratios should not be lowered.　　Through open market operations and window guidance, lending should be channelled to support the most critical areas of economic recovery. Fan also said that the world economy from the financial level, the worst period has passed, but the real economy two quarters may be at the worst, the economy of Europe and the United States are not even a rebound, now the second half of the world economy is better than the first half, or even good, may be too optimistic. The current rebound in international commodity prices is almost unrelated to demand and more to the future inflationary expectations of the Western countries ' hyper-easing monetary policy. In the real economy there is no fundamentalBefore the change, this price rise to a certain level can not continue to rise, but this rise in prices may be counterproductive to the economy, hinder economic recovery, especially the world economy, the industrial structure of major changes. In the second half of the year to increase the structure of the proposals for the future, fan pointed out that the package includes insurance growth, restructuring, technology support, improve the livelihood of four aspects. At present, the policy of growth is enough, the second half of the country should increase structural adjustment, scientific and technological progress and improve people's livelihood to economic growth pull power. The results of the current growth rate are better than expected, but the other three are not moving fast.　　The state's policy focus on investment in fixed assets and research and development should also be adjusted to guide enterprises to invest more in research and development, and new energy, new materials and so on.　　In the long run, to make domestic demand really active, the government still needs to raise residents ' income, increase residents ' consumption expectation, increase social security policy, and promote the virtuous circle of investment and consumption in this way. Fan pointed out that at present, the main reason for our country structure unreasonable is the unreasonable factor price. Now is a good time to adjust factor prices. The second half can increase the factor price formation mechanism reform, more depends on the market allocation factor resources, the structure adjustment can accelerate the advancement.