FDD licence has not been a big recruit, three operators into the dead cycle

(Written on this article, expect three.) First, the mobile communication benefits the public, the other is the infrastructure to promote industrial innovation, the third is to guide the three major state-owned telecom operators from the policy or market, the functional positioning of the appropriate partition, and ultimately promote the healthy development of the industry. Ability has limited field of vision, conclusion is flawed. But by convention, let's start with the scolds. )

On the afternoon of February 27, FDD finally issued a card.

Congratulations Unicom and Telecom Bar, moving unhappy, said FDD impact, Unicom and telecom unhappy. However, a careful thought, attack the other's network quality, and then together by users, it is the common characteristics of global telecom operators. Then, congratulations to the Unicom and Telecom's Big V, and then get sarcastic move material.

Duang Duang! Unfortunately FDD licence has not been a big recruit, the competition pattern of three operators, under the current system arrangement, has entered a dead loop without solution.

History: GE Cattle

All previous telecom reform seems to be true love for unicom, but every time the heavy punch began to hit is moving, the result of the final vomiting of blood is always unicom. also drunk.

For the first time, Unicom became the only telecom operator in the whole business, but released from telecommunications as if the dragon in the days of mobile; the second time, Unicom obtained better performance of CDMA, but not only into the two nets mutual Bo Whirlpool, and was playing a control edge of the PHS beat Black and blue, So that the industry has puzzled why CDMA but PHS; the third time, Unicom's character was finally saved to the explosion, not only to obtain WCDMA license, but also access to the original Netcom 11 provinces of the fixed network of broadband resources, but the huge cost of reorganization has wasted several years of 3G development window period, just understand come ready to take off their pants , the moving 4G came ahead ...

Status quo: Return of the King

Everyone thought that the move would be 4G, but almost everyone did not expect the move to be so good, even including moving themselves at the beginning to set the target low, and finally to challenge the goal to become a conservative goal. A year to make 700,000 base stations, 100 million customers, simply shocked the entire galactic spiral arm ... Some people say that the move has killed the red eye, in fact, was driven crazy.

But in the 4G follow-up strategy, Unicom and telecommunications have their own difficulties. But clearly is three home a year ago at the same time to get LTE license, Unicom and telecommunications incredibly can let everyone think that they not only have nothing to take, but also suffered a lot of grievances, acting is also drunk.

Let's talk about Unicom first. Unicom on WCDMA is absolutely true love, so that LTE's beauty is not enough to attract unicom distraction to 4G construction, even if the concubine is not FDD LTE. But even to get FDD, Unicom also faces the most complex network synergy development problem. The web is "done wide" quickly, but "thick" is going to take years. When the 3G has not done thick, it is necessary to take out a limited amount of money to build 4G, the planning and construction departments are now estimated to be in the toilet crying faint. In addition, Unicom began to play to become the Chinese version of the "At&t", that is, "wcdma+fdd+ fixed network broadband," The trump card, but not only to make the at&t at the beginning did not follow up in a timely manner to rely on the HSPA delay of the error, And he made a complete sprint.

Besides telecommunications. Telecom is the heart of the Chinese version of Verizon, that is, "cdma2000+fdd+ fixed network broadband" of the Ace Combination, staged an American sitcom. But the final comedy did not play, but the act became not to FDD marry me on the mango version of family ethics drama. Telecommunications network In fact than Mobile is also pure, the equivalent of CDMA2000 and FDD two nets, so pound, bedding, handcuffs, whips, makeup god horse is ready, waiting for FDD a big girl married over the full start "50 degrees of gray." But the dynamism of telecoms is admirable, as is the PHS strategy, as is the FDD strategy. Either do not fight, or play the light, it is really special mody a piece of paper!

Outlook: Death Cycle

The FDD only to China Unicom and Telecom, and temporarily did not move the portion, this note to hit the moving of the end of the punch? I am afraid, although the beginning is to move cry, but finally cry dizzy or vomiting blood or unicom and telecommunications.

And why?

Unicom and Telecom can promote dual-4G dual-Gigabit dual-broadband fdd-lte than the LTE speed of a few times as fast as the ma we are really 4G and the cat6cat9 ... but users will only think that this weekend still in the roadside stall in the middle of the night and the Internet to rip the penniless is in the nonsense, and finally have to play price war, Playing cyber warfare. But mobile is the most not afraid of is playing price war and cyber warfare, but also the most willing and most adept at price wars and cyber warfare.

Because three state-owned enterprises natural multiple target attributes and soft budget constraints, the market vulnerable party will not be very concerned about the low profit margin, anyway, lower profit margin will be more likely to obtain policy compensation, better to take off their trousers to do a good, yy or to have some, in case the realization of it? The task of adding value to the state-owned assets will fall on the side of the market. One side is as sharp as an eagle. The higher authorities keep on making profits, while the same pigs are persistent rivals to reduce prices and crazy to build a network, and may even make the market strong one side of the indirect subsidy to subsidize the market for the weak side of the network costs.

The only strategy that can be adopted by the strong side of the market is to make up for the loss of indirect subsidy and the excess profit target by more drastic price war and cyber warfare. In the meantime, if the market share is very unbalanced, the super high market share will instead become the market strong side advantageous competitive lever. In the end, the asymmetric control policies of the regulatory sector were largely offset by the profit targets of the fiscal sector. As a result, the three major telecom operators to fight the death, but finally to the eagle's meat inside, may be moved skinned, Unicom and telecom has been removed arm thigh.

Predicting the impact of FDD on the competitive landscape is probably the same, because telecoms market competition has fallen into a dead loop. But this cycle of death in the overall benefits of society as a whole, to measure whether the loss of assets caused by price wars and cyber warfare can be raised by large-scale price reduction, the improvement of consumer welfare and infrastructure to the spillover effect of industrial innovation. Of course, the best is the overall benefit of society is positive, so that the telecommunications practitioners of the sad and bitter force, for example, not aware of the crazy to do ppt, people difficult to dismantle the weekend crazy stall, tired of watching the computer room, the tongs Liu Ming 10 consecutive years wages and so on the flow of blood and tears, is also regarded as an "alternative social contribution" bar.

Proposal: Brighter

How to break up the bureau? Split the mobile? Merger Unicom Telecom? For capital market restrictions and current industrial changes and other factors, I am afraid it will not work.

Here provides a reference, can the three major telecom operators of the functional positioning, from the policy arrangements or performance assessment of a moderately differentiated and differentiated guidance?

For example, in the area of maintaining a certain level of repetitive competition, for mobile is more to motivate their personalized market-oriented innovation services, for Unicom may be more to motivate their mobile resale or communication capabilities wholesale level of service innovation, for telecommunications is more infrastructure or IAAS level of service innovation? On the other hand, In the face of its own business transformation law and mobile Internet industry competition and cooperation, three telecom operators believe that it will be gradually active or forced to generate strategic differentiation. For China Unicom and Telecom, who are getting a good hand, they should avoid the blindness of 6 years ago and the blind self-confidence of 1 years ago.

All three turn body, another angle of view, may be-------brighter.

Description: The content is purely personal, independent of organizational stance.