February economic data announced interest rate hike worries market

Xinhua Beijing, March 11 (Qin Xin) National Bureau of Statistics today (11th) will focus on the 2010 1-February economic data, including CPI, PPI and other economic data has attracted much attention. It is expected that February consumer price index (CPI) Year-on-year rise will be more than January, about 2.5%, the chain will increase more than January, but also foreign banking experts look forward to February economic data CPI or rose to 2.3%.　　As investors worried about the release of economic data will trigger the central bank to raise interest rates, 10th, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market fell slightly, let the market wait and see mood warming. The CPI inflation target is less than expected. March 5, Premier Wen Jiabao made a report on the work of the Government at the third session of the NPC. In view of the macroeconomic and policy concerns, the report basically conforms to previous market expectations, reaffirms the stability and continuity of the positive fiscal policy and moderately easy monetary policy, and reaffirms the importance of maintaining economic stability and rapid growth in the face of uncertainties in the world economy and financial markets,　　emphasized the need to promote economic restructuring and manage inflationary expectations. Wang Yu, an economist at JPMorgan's China Economic Research department, said that, overall, this year's government work report is fairly balanced in most respects, and the report suggests that this year's consumer price (CPI) inflation target is lower than the prevailing market expectations.　　Wang Yu also drew attention to the report's judgment that the foundations of the global economic recovery remain fragile and that risks in the global financial sector have not been completely eliminated. According to the contents of the Government's work report, China's gross domestic product growth rate was about 8% in 2010, with a focus on improving the quality of growth and economic restructuring, consumer prices (CPI) rose by about 3%; Urban registration unemployment rate is below 4.6%, urban new employment is more than 9 million people　　The balance of payments situation has improved steadily.　　Shen, chief economist at Citigroup's Greater China region, said the CPI was the most surprising in all of the targets, indicating that the government was determined to keep inflation low and that the economy would not overheat to lead to excessive inflation.　　Zhang, a researcher at the China International Economic Exchange Center, said it was difficult but possible to achieve the goal of controlling price rises of around 3% per cent this year, as set out in the government's work report. "On the one hand, high levels of new credit last year have put upward pressure on prices this year, and this year's input-type upward pressure on prices will not be small."　　"But Zhang that, given the Government's attention to inflation expectations, it is believed that regulatory targets can be achieved and that serious inflation will not occur."　　Changbaoliang, deputy director of the Ministry of Economic forecasting of the National Information Center, predicted that in February China's CPI year-on-year rise will be around 2.2%-2.5%, the chain will rise in 0.8% to 1%, the annual price rise can be controlled within 3% key to see the economic growth and currency delivery. Stock market performance raises interest rate worries wait-and-see sentiment heats up inflation data or the rise in inflationary pressure has been a recent market concern.Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market 10th in the banking sector, the overall decline in the real estate sector, the whole day presents a shock downward market, the main stock indexes both slightly closed down.　　The Shanghai Composite Index, which closed at 3067.15 points at 3048.93, fell 20.21 points, or 0.66%, and exponentially opened at 12496.78 points and closed at 12391.65, down 116.01 points, or 0.93%. A-share market in real estate, banks and other large market value plate under the guidance of the correction.　　Markets are concerned that the upcoming February export and inflation figures will trigger a rise in the PBoC's interest rate hike, leaving investors watching again. On the other hand, many foreign investment banks expect February CPI growth to exceed 3% per cent year-on-year, given the seasonal surge in food and the effect of the base effect before the Spring Festival. However, as the Commerce Department's weekly data showed that the price of edible agricultural products rose only 1.1% in February, less than the two-month gain, Nomura's China equity research director Sun this week has lowered the February CPI increase to 2.1%, below the current 2.25% per cent of the 1-year deposit rate.　　He believes that if the February CPI data really so, the central bank's interest rate hike time or will be postponed. Brokerage report: CPI, PPI growth is expected to continue to climb a number of securities dealers published research report said, the spring festival factors on prices, February CPI, PPI growth is expected to continue to climb, but because of the Spring festival after the rapid fall in prices, its rise may be lower than previous market expectations. At present, most institutions expect February CPI year-on-year growth will jump to more than 2%, the average value of about 2.3%.　　In addition, investment, consumption and other indicators will remain stable, industrial added value or high innovation. China International Economic Exchange Center researcher Zhang that February China's CPI inflation accelerated, the main reason is the Spring Festival factors.　　Last year, the Spring Festival before and after the impact of the financial crisis, consumption is relatively low, this year during the Spring festival consumption, strong demand led to rising prices; Moreover, last year's Spring festival in January, February, the price increase is not very obvious, the base factor also affected the price rise this February data. Dongxiangan, Chief macro analyst of Xingye Securities, forecasts that CPI rose by 2.8% in 2 March, 3.0%,ppi 5.1% and 7.1% year-on-year.　　His judgment was based on the continued rise in food prices in the first 3 weeks of February, when wholesale prices of vegetables rose sharply in the first 1 weeks of the Spring Festival, and the wholesale price of pork fell in the 1th week, rising 3rd weeks. Goldman Sachs economist Yu expects February CPI year-on-year growth to rise from 1.5% in January to 2.3%, meaning that the year-on-year growth rate will rise from 1.3% to around 2.5%. He said the main driving force for food prices in February was the Spring Festival factor. The absolute price of food, published by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Agriculture, has continued to fall after the spring festival and has fallen to the pre-spring festival in early March. The February PPI increase could accelerate from 4.3% in January to 5.3%, meaning the seasonally adjusted monthYear-on-year growth fell from 18.9% in January to 11.8%. Investment consumption is still the main industry experts on the growth of fixed assets investment in February continued to maintain optimistic estimates, investment growth is expected to continue to run high. Wanguo Senior macro analyst Li Huiyong said that according to experience, 1-February fixed asset investment growth rate is basically equivalent to or slightly lower than the second half of the last year's investment growth rate, the second half of last year's investment growth rate of 29.3%, estimated 1-February fixed assets investment will increase by about 29%,　　Slightly lower than the 30.1% of last December. Li Huiyong also pointed out that due to the state's control over investment in surplus industries, credit crunch, and the reduction of infrastructure investment, overall investment growth this year will fall to around 25%.　　However, the decline in investment growth will be a slow process. For consumption growth, most institutions believe that 1-February total retail sales of consumer goods may continue to accelerate year-on-year growth. Lu Commissar believes that, first of all, historical data show that 1-February growth generally will not be lower than the previous December; second, the main components of the retail car consumption is still strong.　　Data from the Joint meeting of China's passenger cars showed that sales of more than 1.21 million vehicles in January rose 84.2% to record highs;　　Industrial added value or re-innovation high industrial Bank Capital Operations Center chief economist Lu County, the 1-February cumulative industry value growth of 21.5%, compared with last December 3%, also may hit 1997 years since the same record. Dongxiangan, chief macro analyst at Societe Generale Securities Research and Development center, also predicted a 20% increase in industrial value in 1-February. He said the value of industrial growth coincided with the trend of electricity generation. From last December's power generation, the quarter-ring trend is high. The electricity output of January this year is up to 42%. At the same time, heavy industry is the mainstay of industrial recovery.　　Crude steel production in the heavy industry has grown by 18.2% in January year-on-year, by 2.2% in the chain. The market is worried that the economy may overheat in the face of higher-than-high industry value-added data. In this respect, Lu County calculated, this 1-February cumulative increase in the value of industrial growth of 51.5%. "From 1 to February this year, the industrial value of the chain distribution is still normal, not abnormal high, not to say overheating." "(end)