Financial Weekly: Real estate tax Levy three suspense

Wen/Sinorama reporter Shijing Before the text: All kinds of indications that the real estate tax pilot and gradually to the national promotion, has been inevitable.　　Real estate tax began to levy, in the near future has the function of regulating the property market, such as speculative demand will form a deterrent, but in the long run, in fact, for the local government has brought a stable main tax. Will the real estate tax start to be levied? Since 2003 the property tax has been idling, and it has been brought up every year, but it has only remained in the legendary stage.　　In particular, since April this year, the new round of real estate regulation, Central and Shanghai, Chongqing and other individual cities, often said that the introduction of real estate tax or news circulated, but eventually proved to be "gossip" and nothing, this time will repeat it?　　Property tax to be levied soon? Is the property tax really coming?　　Recently, a Chongqing will be the first to carry out a real estate tax pilot news, as if the oil pot fell into a drop of water, immediately fried open the pot. Recently, the Zhongqing Land and Housing Bureau once again express the real estate tax, and said that is improving the property tax collection plan, in accordance with market trends timely implementation of the relevant preparations. This means that the levy on the property tax has been offing, but it is unclear when it will be released.　　According to Chongqing Municipal Housing Bureau, in fact, can also roughly infer a time node, that is, in the fourth quarter of this year, assuming that prices are still high, and even maintain the momentum, then the property tax will be issued at the end of the year. Just before long, Shenzhen also came out of the property tax pilot news. Media reports said that the Shenzhen municipal government in conjunction with various departments convened an emergency meeting to discuss the implementation of the real estate tax in Shenzhen, and the Shenzhen real estate tax pilot implementation of the relevant revised version of the proposal proposed amendments. The media also quoted people familiar with the words, the real estate tax levy pilot "within 2 months will be implemented in Shenzhen."　　Although subsequently Shenzhen the government on this news to dispel the rumor, and announced that will not be the pilot property tax in the near future, but smoke, the market to the property tax Levy's anticipation, has been some earlier. Earlier, there were rumours that a pilot property tax was about to begin.　　Some people in the industry even disclosed more details, such as the real estate tax rate for 0.3%~0.4%, and gave a specific time to levy the node, such as the possibility of the introduction of the year is very large. In recent times, a number of ministries have also sent the same message to the market that the property tax is about to start a pilot and gradually expand to the country. Previous reports said that after the "11" long holiday, the Ministry of Finance, the State administration of taxation, housing construction department has launched a joint tax on the property of the relevant procedures, including the Shanghai, Chongqing, two pilot programs modified content.　　Also in recent time, including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and other ministries concerned in different occasions, have declared real estate tax pilot is imperative.　　The property tax is really not far from us.　　A formal pilot at the end of this year?　　The industry has judged that the property tax may be the reserve Force for regulation to continue to pressure the property market. Some people in the industry to the reporter analysis pointed out that the pressure of appreciation of the renminbi still exist, which makes international hot money always eyeing the real estate market in China, especially in the first-tier cities. To be sure, as the renminbi continues to appreciate, it is bound to attract more international hot money inflow, in addition to the stock market, the property market will be patronized.　　The push for capital could lead to a return to rising prices, so that the Government would follow up on measures such as levying a property tax. In fact, some people in the industry think the property tax will come out sooner or later. Pan Shiyi, Soho China's chairman, said there is still plenty of room for regulation of the mainland's property market, such as the introduction of a property tax, the rise in the proportion of home purchase payments, and the increase in mortgage rates. In all policies, a property tax may be the most effective policy.　　Pan Shiyi also said the global asset bubble and China asset bubble would emerge in the context of quantitative easing in the United States and the issuance of a large number of currencies. Cai Weimin, a well-known Shanghai real estate expert, also told our correspondent that the introduction of real estate tax can bring a stable main tax for local governments, which is the most desirable situation for the cities that are gradually tightening up the construction land. "When the local government sees that the land is running out, the willingness to introduce a property tax will be further strengthened."　　"he said. From another point of view, the property tax is regarded as a punitive tax by the industry, its role is mainly to increase the holding cost of real estate investors, thereby reducing market speculation expectations. From this perspective, the introduction of real estate tax is also a part of the property market regulation.　　Cai Weimin analysis points out that, after the introduction of the property tax, the owner of a large number of properties in the hands of investors, the cost of holding will be greatly increased, which will give them a sense of pressure from the tax, thus adjusting the asset structure. As for the real estate tax pilot time, there is no specific statement. Reporters and some of the industry in Shanghai to communicate that they have not yet received any notice related to the property tax. Nudal, senior manager of Han Yu real estate trading in Shanghai, told reporters that there has been no notice of any pilot work with the real estate tax.　　In addition, Shanghai Tak Woo real estate and other intermediary companies related people also gave the same statement. But in the opinion of experts, the real estate tax pilot work is very likely to start in the near future. Cai Weimin said that, in view of the recent property market transactions, although the volume has shrunk, but the level of housing prices did not really callback. The statement from the real estate agency also confirms his statement, according to data provided by Shanghai's three-level market research department, which shows that the price of high-end apartments in the downtown area has not changed recently.　　Nudal even told reporters that a few sellers will also "jump prices." Expert analysis points out that if housing prices continue to remain high, it is likely to accelerate the introduction of the property tax. Cai Weimin said the property tax would begin to be piloted by the end of this year if house prices were strong and even showed signs of a modest rally. "This is a regulatory need and the government no longer wants home prices to rebound.　　"he said. And if house prices are a small correction, short-term regulatory pressure will be reduced, but this does not mean that the property tax will not be introduced, but the time will be slightly delayed. Cai Weimin added: "If the priceA small correction, the introduction of a property tax is likely to be slightly delayed, as in the first quarter of next year.　　How does the property tax affect the property market? What impact will the property tax have on the property market? In the end can inhibit speculation, even to curb the role of rising housing prices?　　And what are the implications for normal rigid requirements? As for the ability to curb the speculation, as well as curb the role of price rises, the analysis of various people think the role is limited.　　Cai Weimin said that, given the current inflationary pressures, the willingness to hold real estate to withstand inflation has increased, and while there are concerns about the imposition of a property tax, the property tax is still within reach relative to inflation, so it does not rule out the possibility of holding property rather than a property tax. Some experts pointed out that the real estate tax can control speculation, curb the rise in house prices, the most fundamental still depends on the tax rate of the real estate. Real estate as a value-added investment, if the tax rate is determined, speculators still think that the profits of the property speculation is attractive, then the imposition of real estate tax still difficult to curb investment speculation. If it is a progressive tax, the speculators feel that the property is not cost-effective, it may be to curb speculation and stabilize the housing prices have a positive impact.　　But according to the existing information, the property tax rate between 0.3%~0.4%, relative to inflation, is much smaller, which will encourage owners to continue to hold properties. To be sure, the property tax will push up rents. Cai Weimin said that for investors holding properties, the price rises are not expected to be high, and the cost of holding increased, it is bound to be considered to pass on this part of the cost, so raising rent level is the only practical way.　　This has been a precedent, in May this year, Shanghai has spread the property tax pilot news, so many landlords have raised rents to cope with the increase in costs. As for the imposition of real estate tax, whether it will lead to the increase in market sales, experts said the possibility exists, but the scope and intensity of the impact of "limited to buy", "limit lending" policy measures, certainly much smaller.　　Experts believe that if the tax rate of real estate taxes between the 0.3%~0.4%, which will make some of the original amount of money, and very concerned about the cost of taxes and charges to consider selling properties, so that in a short period of time to create a rise in supply, but this situation will not last long. Will the property tax affect the demand for home ownership? According to the present situation, no definite answer can be given. According to the current most popular saying, property tax only for more than a certain area of the property levy, such as Shanghai to more than 200 square meters or three housing levy property tax, and Chongqing's claim is for more than 140 square meters of luxury tax, then can be preliminarily judged that the housing tax on the impact of home demand is small, Will not increase the cost of your own needs.