Fine operation of monetary policy adjustment expectation

Gao Hejun concerned about the central Economic Work Conference (a) There are signs that the flood of liquidity is impacting China's social and economic life through CPI and asset prices.　　Regulation of excessive price rises is once again an important agenda for all levels of government. Worryingly, the factors that have caused this kind of liquidity proliferation have not only not been eliminated but are still growing. For example, in order to withstand the financial crisis shocks the excessive amount of money, has been precipitated in the social and economic life, in order to maintain rapid economic growth, but also must maintain a modest increase in the amount of money, foreign trade surplus accumulation of large foreign exchange, but also need to put more renminbi to hedge; "Quantitative easing" Policies are releasing new liquidity around the world, and "hot money" will eyeing into the arbitrage opportunities. How do you manage the flow of continuous growth over a long period of time?　　China's monetary policy is undoubtedly a severe test. Another test of monetary policy is how to ensure a stable and fast-growing monetary demand for our economy? 2011 is "Twelve-Five planning" of the beginning of the year, but also the economic restructuring to the depth of the development of the Battle of the Year, development and adjustment need to have a higher capital investment. At the same time, China's urbanization process is far from complete, also need a lot of capital investment, the real estate sector has been and still piling up a lot of money, linked to tens of thousands of consumers and various types of commercial banks; in the process of large-scale infrastructure construction, the local financing platform to borrow quickly, the project digestion can not be separated from the new investment ... All this shows that excessive shrinkage of liquidity is bound to pose greater risks. Monetary tightening, for example, has led to a decline in valuation of renminbi assets, reduced land revenues and increased pressure on local government financing platforms, among others. If the "hard regulation" endangers economic growth, it is likely that the "gourd" of inflation will float the "scoop" of deflation.　　That would be a worse result.　　This shows that the current monetary policy is facing a "dilemma" choice: both "growth" and "inflation-proof", the forthcoming central economic Work Conference is bound to make a choice.　　The author thinks, in this case, the desirability of "both the strategy" can only be "meticulous operation", that is, in the "return to normal" process, improve flexibility, increase flexibility to adjust the mechanism. First of all, the flexible use of interest rate tools, according to the actual situation of economic operation appropriate adjustment of interest rates, market-based means to adjust monetary demand.　　In this way, those with a large number of loans, high asset-liability ratios and uncompetitive enterprises are bound to consider financing costs and save money, while the dynamic and competitive SMEs also have the opportunity to obtain financing from financial institutions. Second, there should be flexibility in preventing "hot money". If "hot money" inflow too much, should be in operation in the direction of austerity, if the economic recovery of developed countries accelerated, "hot money" backflow, should be appropriate to relax the operation.　　As the situation changes dynamically, the policy is more forward-looking and flexible. Third, in line with economic restructuring, for different industries and projects have "into" there is "back", award-winning penalty. AgainstTo regulate construction projects, such as restricting loans, stopping loans and receiving and lending, etc. for projects that are not in line with the State policy of high energy consumption, high pollution and high emissions, no new loans and credits are issued in any form, and in the case of risk control, the credit support for emerging industries is increased, etc.