First Pacific Davis: office rental growth facing the ceiling

January 16, the First Pacific Davis 2012 fourth quarterly market report showed that in the fourth quarter of last year, two in the Jinrongjie region of the project delivery, the Beijing office building market to add 64,000 square meters of rental supply, but last year, the annual new supply is still the lowest value since 2000. The net absorption volume of the quarter grew 24.6% to 53,000 square meters, but due to the lack of rental area and new supply and the slowing of demand, the net absorbing capacity of the whole year is only 263,000 square meters, which is the lowest value in the last ten years. In addition, the rental growth is weak, the fourth quarter of last year, a office rental growth rate of only 0.9% to 317.8 yuan/month/square meters, year-on-year increase from 2011 to 44.2% fell to 13.8%. First Pacific Davis predicts that in 2013 there will be 6 projects (one of the project owners for their own use, the other five projects will enter the leasing market) completed the market to bring 223,000 square meters of new supply. Given that the new supply is only half the annual supply of the past 5 years, the overall vacancy rate in the city will continue to hover below 5%, and the annual rent increase is expected to slow further to around 5%. >> interpretation in the past 3 years, the Beijing office of the high rent in the market continued to grow rapidly, greatly weakening the affordability of tenants, coupled with the macro-economic downturn to expand demand for enterprises to slow down, at the same time, "to center" phenomenon is obvious, the new business district will bring more office options, Greatly weaken the traditional business district advantage. It is expected that in the next period of time, the office market will gradually enter a dull period, vacancy rate, market activity and rent growth will be at low levels.