Flow, Thirst! Dick Silk started to fall into the mobile traffic curse

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Traffic! From the PC Internet to mobile Internet, this is an irreversible trend. Recently, heard a lot of friends around, said from the mobile traffic is amazing. For the "micro-innovation" of a series of activities, from micro-credit and other mobile Internet is the most effective traffic.

However, a very unfortunate, terrible flow of hunger and thirst curse is emerging in the mobile internet. A year or two ago, mobile entrepreneurship is still saying that one of their driving force is to jump out of the traditional network of the big boss of the flow of rule. Now, the mobile internet is repeating the mistakes of PC Internet.

For cock silk entrepreneurship, the most effective several new traffic channels:

1, mobile flow of the largest oligopoly is the channel, this is cock silk entrepreneurial play. Wu Gang describes this kind of pressure: "A channel to help your product online, you will be closely focused on your income data." Channel can not be patient to stare at you for months. The first day to guide you a thousands of of the amount, the next day depends on your retention and pay rate. If the indicators do not meet the standard, it will not give you the flow. Objectively, the app game developer has to design a product that has a pay rate and ARPU in the first week. The first Zhou Ding life and death. "The value of an active user in the paging channel in 2008 is about 2 yuan, now 10 times times more." Crazy.

2, new flow channel: The emergence of Super app. Micro-letters and UCWeb are all super apps. In particular, the micro-letter, sitting in the hundreds of millions of users, let the channel oppression of the bottom of the pyramid developers see the hope of jumping into the sea.

3. New traffic channel: Web App. At the end of August, Baidu released light apps, which made developers very excited. A product manager friend Wang that Light app = Web App +hybrid app, if so, a bit ahead. Others argue that WebApp is the future, featuring Cross-platform and immediate updates, Hybrid app is basically out of the way because the user experience sucks. However, WebApp still needs time to grow. WebApp's big environment is too bad; HTML5 support is not enough; mobile phone performance is uneven; different from PC interaction.

4, the most effective channels: fans and Word-of-mouth. On the mobile internet, as long as products form Word-of-mouth, only that fear of having 100 hardcore fans, also will have a strong diffusion effect. In the final analysis, still want to spell product.

You tell me?

= = = Flow-hungry Split line:

Source: Business Value Ge Xin

July 16, Baidu announced plans to 1.9 billion U.S. dollars wholly-owned acquisition network under the Mirs 91 wireless services, refreshing the domestic Internet acquisition amount record.

It is not easy to understand why Baidu buys 91 of wireless at such a high cost. But with in-depth research on the fundamentals of mobile Internet, it will be clear that Baidu's 91 wireless potential in the must.

Time into the 2013, the Internet, especially the mobile Internet into the flow of hunger and thirst stage. Based on the number of PC stagnant growth, the number of mobile phones in the growth but the flow has become a setback in the background, whether the channel platform or developers, are in a flow of hunger and thirst of the state, the existing traffic enclosure, looking for new traffic entrance, is their pursuit of survival.

However, in this proposition, the channels, distributors and developers can not be placed in the same position. In fact, the three formed an inverted pyramid of industrial structure.

The powerful channel of capital and technology is the base of the pyramid, at the top they give great pressure to the ecology below; developers are at the bottom of the group, and they are being oppressed by the brutal superstructure, the source of the bulk of the flow, and the brutal elimination of the same; They play the role of the flow Porter, also in the flow of thirsty industry background in a brutal competition eliminated.

It is in this grim situation, in the mobile internet layout of the late Baidu, there is no enough to compete with Tencent 360 app channel. This is extremely detrimental to Baidu's strategy of transforming the mobile Internet, which means it will lose its identity as a platform. That is the logic behind Baidu's sky-high purchase of 91 of wireless.

In fact, regardless of Baidu strategy, the flow of hunger and thirst has become the industry fundamentals of mobile Internet. Its industry abuses have emerged. A surprise takeover is just one of the fundamental derivatives.

Where will it take the mobile Internet? Obviously, the analysis of the causes of this phenomenon and the inference to its result is of great significance to the development of the whole industry.

The tide and thirst of the channel

The weight of channel in China Mobile internet market is too large, which leads to inverted pyramid, which is the result of multiple factors.

And 2011-2012 entrepreneurial companies accounted for a large proportion of the difference is that 2013 is the size of the page of the company, the end of the company led the group of hundreds of people to participate in the research and development team. At this stage, the cost of getting the user will rise rapidly, and the product category will become saturated in the short term. This makes the weight of app channels swell rapidly.

In fact, there are two sources of original app distribution. One is the App Store (which includes 91 mobile assistants) and one is mobile advertising. For developers, the two are almost as efficient as they are in America. This is because the largest app store in the United States, Google Play and the largest mobile ad platform AdMob belong to the same company, users directly from the former download app and the latter click to download the app's efficiency is almost the same. However, in the Chinese market, Google play is absent, each shop channel each other, resulting in the advertising download channel inefficient.

Touch Technology CEO Chenhao to the Economist about his account: according to foreign game industry statistics, although the mobile advertising conversion rate is 1/30 of the PC advertising conversion rate, but the mobile game's user retention rate is the PC game retention rate of 3 times times, conversion, the use of mobile advertising to promote the efficiency of the game should be the PC Game 1/ 10. If the ads on the mobile phone to interfere only for the PC 1/3-1/5 consider, the Chinese Android Market advertising download efficiency than the idealized efficiency (that is, the United States Google Play and admob efficiency) 30-50 times worse.

Therefore, in the Chinese market, advertising distribution channels can not rob the application store channels of the plate. On the other hand, because the hand swims the market alone big, makes Tencent and 360 such interconnection giant's admission becomes the application store channel to the oligarch rule important reason. Before Tencent and the 360 force, there were four other third-party channels in China's Android market that were small: 91, Jifeng, Android and application sinks. However, with the admission of internet giants, these channels are facing enormous pressure to survive. Liang Huadong, the content director of Jifeng Market, revealed to the Economist that 360 mobile phone assistants were born this year, and the business of each application channel was greatly affected. While doing the research and development of Tencent is to accelerate the channel enclosure and then push developers to reverse the tide.

"The advantage of Android versus the iOS platform is fast," Liang Huadong told The Economist, "but since the second half of 2012, the channel has been closed." ”

The result of this oligarch reversal is the squeeze of developers by channels.

Stone Interactive CEO Wu Gang describes this pressure: "A channel to help your product online, you will be closely focused on your income data." Channel can not be patient to stare at you for months. The first day to guide you a thousands of of the amount, the next day depends on your retention and pay rate. If the indicators do not meet the standard, it will not give you the flow. Objectively, the app game developer has to design a product that has a pay rate and ARPU in the first week. The first Zhou Ding life and death. ”

This will inevitably lead to a surge in flow prices. Liang Huadong to The Economist, in 2008, the page of the channel's active user value is about 2 yuan, now 10 times times more than. And now the price of a hand-active users is equivalent to the level of 2008, but if this development, 3 years will increase 10 times times more than.

And because the flow is so valuable, so the channel company also often take the operating department and the flow department separate accounting methods, that is, "internal closure." This has caused the developers to be limited by the flow of thirst, while the channel side also has the flow of hunger and thirst problem.

Developer and Capital Deposit + channel single--> channel giant monopoly--> flow price soaring--> all parties flow thirst, this is the current fundamentals of China Mobile Internet.

Waiting for a new traffic source

"Unfortunately, at the end of 2012, a platform for innovation and individual developers is going to fall," he said. "This is the opening phrase of" App Game 2012 itch "written by Wu Gang at the end of last year.

After all, there are very few developers like touch technology that own a traffic-operating platform. The exposure probability of new products is 0, each is forced to choose and Channel intermodal transport. Developers under the inverted pyramid are the biggest victims of the flow of thirsty oppression.

"Suppose your billing rate is 2%, two paid subscribers, and everyone needs to pay 100 yuan." Suppose you and the channel is 5:5 to divide, that must each pay the player to carry 200 yuan income, this just is just hit the flat. Then 2% of the pay rate, 300 yuan ARPU is also a passing level. Wu Gang reluctantly said: "This developer's app game convergence: Billing! High arpu! front pay point!"

Can developers of power geometry survive this kind of flow-hungry ecology?

Wu Gang to have just been bought by Huayi Guangzhou Silverside as a typical case, the threshold of the description: "Silverside the year before the profit balance, last more than 6 million, the first half of this year tens of millions of profit, net assets but 80 million yuan, the bottom is obviously not thick enough."

Visible, the strength under Silverside's developer, all will face is eliminated or is acquired the destiny, the developer's foreground is bleak.

Obviously, developers won't sit idly by. The list is a way for developers to get around the flow of hunger and thirst-by getting the top of the App Store list at minimal cost, not only to get a certain number of users on the iOS platform, but also to use the App Store list brand effect to game the Android channel.

"The cost of getting a single user in the app Store is lower than the cost of the Android intermodal, where the Android channel doesn't have the money to transport you." Wu Gang said.

However, the company to prevent the brush list and constantly adjust the ranking rules and severely punish the brush list, so that the number of developers to go into a contradiction. Not long ago, Google play also launched a strategy to prevent developers from swiping the list. It can be seen that the brush list is not a long-term plan. In addition to the brush list, with blue port production "Sword of Kings" as the representative, the television brand promotion and bypass the application store channels, but also some powerful developers to take another strategy.

However, for the vast majority of developers in the flow of hunger, where are their outlets?

They are pinning their hopes on new sources of traffic.

The first is the advent of super apps. The Kakao platform's stunning profitability in Japan and South Korea (where most of the tour in the list Top10 comes from the Kakao platform) has allowed Chinese developers to see the potential of the micro-trust platform.

It is clear that the micro-letters placed in the communications record can largely bypass the flow-thirsty marshes. And the hundreds of millions of users of micro-trust, let the channel oppression of the bottom of the pyramid developers see the hope of jumping into the sea.

Next is the Web App. At the end of August, Baidu Light application of the interview, the developer injected a cardiac stimulant. Because unlike native applications, Web app can realize the application of internal information, from the original app jump, Cross-platform development, and many other functions, this will be a strong original app channel giant, the efficiency of advertising distribution greatly improved, can be caught in the native app market flow hungry developers rescued.

"After the Web app bursts, the mobile internet will be able to realize the traffic on the PC-who has the biggest flow." Chenhao said to the Economist.

It is clear that the advent of super apps and Web Apps has enabled developers, who are caught in the flow of thirst, to see a much larger market space than the original app market. However, this also means that the game of the giant traffic enclosure will continue, but a different form.

The sudden outbreak of hardware, represented by wearable devices, boxes and routers, began in 2013, attracting a lot of media attention. With the exception of a handful of creators, most of these hardware products are owned by internet giants such as 360 and Tencent. So we can read the giant's thirst for this external flow of open source. The battle for new sources of traffic has already begun ahead.

In any case, the new source of traffic will bring a thriving life to the developers who are caught in the flow of thirsty swamps, and how will the old pyramid be restructured after it collapses?

This is still unknown.

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