"Flower Road" unrivaled National Day file, the secret of success

"Flower Road" unrivaled National Day file, as of October 11 night has won 893 million box-office. However, behind the box-office boom, one of the investors, Beijing's share price, did not rise as the market had expected. After the three trading days after the long holiday, Beijing tourism fell for 3 consecutive day, so many investors depressed unceasingly.

On the evening of 10th, Beijing Tourism disclosed the film's box office split. Perhaps the reason for the fall in share prices is hidden in the scheme.

In the gambling scheme, Beijing tourism and other issuers to provide a guarantee for the production side, "Flower" box office to more than 500 million, Beijing tourism can not lose money, and beyond the part of Beijing tourism can only get 25% of the split.

See such a bulletin, not only small entertainment, even some institutional investors are surprised, and it is such a proportion, so that Beijing tourism in the "flower" in the gains far less than expected.

1, the box office more than 500 million to not lose money, fortunately, won the bet

According to the plan, participating in the gambling is not a Beijing tourism, but Beijing tourism and China Shadow shares of Beijing branch joint Commitment, Xiangninghao control of the two companies to carry out the "guarantee is divided into", the two sides took out 75 million yuan, paid to the film Fang Ninghao of the guarantee is divided into 150 million yuan. In addition, Beijing tourism also provides no more than 50 million yuan of publicity costs.

In other words, regardless of the box office good and bad, Ning will get this 150 million yuan. Compared to the "Flower Road," the cost of filming, Ning in the film before the release has been stable, and the profit is considerable.

150 million of the guarantee is divided, meaning, to have a multiple of 500 million yuan box office, Beijing tourism can not lose money!

Such a bet on the number can be said to be quite bold, before the Bo na film issued "After the", the box office is 350 million, and Huayi Brothers issued "West Swim Drop Devil" is 300 million.

2, out of the part to take 25%, before Huayi is 70%

When the box office of "flower" exceeds more than 500 million yuan, it means that Beijing tourism has recovered the cost and won the bet. As Beijing tourism has assumed the risk of failure to gamble, it stands to reason that the box-office excess of the portion, should be most of Beijing tourism owned.

Prior to this, Huayi Brothers in the "West Swim down the Demon chapter" on the bet, the excess of the portion of the 70%, and the Bo na film in the "After life" of the bet, the excess part of the divided into 40%. However, in the "flower" scheme, Beijing tourism deduction after the guarantee of the split, announced the funds, the remaining pieces, Beijing travel can only get 25%.

That is to say, Beijing travel provides 125 million yuan capital fallback (75 million yuan is guaranteed to be divided into + 50 million yuan to announce a fee), but finally can enjoy 25% of box office to divide, this plan is obviously somewhat harsh.

After all, Beijing tourism is no more than Huayi, Boehner these veteran film companies, in the industry can mobilize resources relatively limited, can get "flower" distribution, participation in this high box office film, basically is a success. Beijing tourism is also on the entertainment capital, for the "flower" such a film, the right to release the competition is very fierce.

3, profit is lower than the expected investment 125 million, profit 41.75 million

Before the entertainment capital had predicted, as long as "flower" box office to reach 800 million yuan, Beijing tourism can profit 100 million, obviously, this estimate is high.

According to the latest scheme, if "flower" of the box office amounted to 1 billion yuan, Beijing tourism profit of about 41.75 million yuan.

The formula is as follows: Suppose 1 billion yuan box office, the first step: Take 5% of the film Special Fund, 3.3% of the business tax; the second step, the remaining box office is multiplied by 43% (in general, the hospital line and cinemas will be divided 57%); The third step, the plane to the distribution agency fee, and monitor the company's costs (industry veteran suggested directly multiplied by 93%), get the final slice of the divided into--10* (1-5%-3.3%) *43%*93%=3.67 billion.

The fourth part, the deduction divides to the Ning two company's guarantee to divide into 150 million yuan, then deducted Beijing travel advance 50 million yuan propaganda expense, has left 167 million yuan.

This 167 million yuan of 25%, is the Beijing tourism profit, is 41.75 million yuan.

Entertainment Capital and Beijing tourism has been confirmed, in the calculation of Beijing tourism, if the box office to reach 1 billion yuan, the company profit in 40 million yuan to 50 million yuan.

In fact, before the Beijing tourism announcement of the box office plan, institutional investors ' general perception of Beijing's tourism earnings was 80 million to 100 million yuan, which is close to the forecast of small entertainment. In other words, Beijing tourism in the "flower" piece of real profits, far below market expectations.

This may explain why, after the National Day holiday, the share price of Beijing tourism does not rise and fall.

4, half a year, the investment yield is over 33%, is a good business

Although profit is less than expected, it is still a good business from the point of view of the efficiency of capital use.

Because the film industry is generally faster, Beijing tourism in August this year to invest 125 million yuan, it is estimated that the end of this year will be able to get the money, if "flower" the final box office is 1 billion, Beijing tourism 125 million yuan in the period of six months to earn 41.75 million yuan, the yield is 33.4%.

Besides, these 125 million dollars are not paid in a lump sum, and perhaps less than 125 million of the money actually spent.

According to the investment agreement, 75 million yuan of the guarantee is divided by the time to pay, and 50 million of the publicity costs are not necessarily spent, assuming that only spent 30 million to get 1 billion box office, then Beijing tourism will earn the remaining 20 million of the sales, that is 25% yuan. This means that the eventual return on investment is bound to be 33.4% higher.

5, investment not only for the money more Word-of-mouth

Entertainment Capital from Beijing tourism to understand that Beijing tourism in the August this year, see "Flower" of the film, before deciding to invest, when Beijing tourism for the movie box office estimate is 800 million yuan, so the company can earn more than 20 million yuan in half a year.

In other words, Beijing tourism thinks, even if only earn more than 20 million yuan, also value. After all, the opportunity to participate in a movie box office 800 million, for a new film and television companies, is also a good thing. Moreover, it is much less risky to invest when you see a piece of film than to invest in a script.

At present, the "Flower" box office has exceeded 800 million, beyond the expectations of Beijing tourism. This is Beijing tourism investment in the second film, the former "You at the same table", the box office also more than 400 million yuan, two consecutive pieces of sales, for the company's follow-up development laid a foundation.

6, Beijing travel price will also rise?

Entertainment capital privately learned that as early as the national Day holiday, there has been a large amount of capital layout of Beijing tourism, the long holiday in the "flower" swept, the 3 trading days after the holiday, Beijing tourism fell 3.14%, 2.03%, 2.54%, which is likely to be the early money in profits back vomit.

In the face of a less than expected share of the plan, the subsequent stock price will rise, or will fall, you reader own judge it.