Brokerage Partners sing empty suning: or for the second half of the profit wash plate

These two days, Suningyun business (002024. SZ) 's brokerage small partner showed an abnormal sign.

As of the day before yesterday, it was May 6, 16 institutions for their 2014 annual performance forecasts, the average forecast net profit of 403 million yuan, the average forecast diluted earnings per share of-0.0545 yuan, the highest 0.2227 yuan, the lowest-0.2461 yuan.

It's not over yet, Q2. Institutions to predict the annual results, in the domestic listed companies, rare.

Foreign listed companies, if the annual growth performance has a high degree of control, the beginning of the year will often predict a broad range of growth, basically set the tone. Such companies, in the industrial chain, the right to speak generally relatively high.

Suningyun is now experiencing a difficult transformation, is also online integration. 2014 Q1, it lost 438 million yuan. Belong to the most passive moment.

Su Ning is the client of the above organization, in general, the seller analyst rarely to the customer to insult, after all, they are doing business. General Seller analyst, common analysis report routine is:

1, the title of a evasive.

2, catch a bright spot even if not bright spots unfold, less than the rest;

3, around the "bright spot" continue to analyze, give a framework logic, there will be trivial data support;

4, give the future period of EPS interval prediction;

5, an place, vague and vague to do a hint of risk.

The agency uniform a pessimistic forecast, and it is straightforward to do so in the title of the report. In this case, it may be:

1, the Conscience report, do not do business does not matter, you go to die;

2, the overall is not optimistic, or sing empty washing plate suction, and the listed company conspiracy;

The probability of 1 is almost not. Unless the broker later do not do this business, after all, the fundamentals of listed companies will have a cyclical change, is now only a temporary loss. A step back, the listed companies can not find the bright spot, the analyst may use the technique to wrap the past.

I think 2 is a lot more likely. Enterprise stock price Weak, rising kinetic energy is insufficient, need to undergo a long period of ready, adjust, at this time, the seller analyst's behavior may be a collective singing empty short strategy. In this case, if not with the customer communication, it is very rare, after all, has the interest relationship.

Take a closer look, the past quarter, the securities dealers on suning is still intensive.

In this way, the company's share price may go through a process of washing and sucking. For investors who have a certain understanding of this stock, they should be patient enough.

If you are blending with a listed company, it is likely to be a positive sign of market capitalisation management. "Positive" is not bragging, but after a comprehensive consideration, start to generate logic through the broker. They mean, anyway, now poor home, simply naked in the end, lose!

The dilemma of Suningyun (002024) is:

1, bundle too deep real estate. Chinese retailers are actually property developers. Regulation is the most volatile threat to them.

2, line under the integration of the pace is too large, resulting in a decline in gross profits, the overall in lean;

3, the entity and online revenue are showing signs of weakness, online traffic is not enough;

4, a number of acquisition cases, the need for a long period to be effective;

5, Internet Finance, Virtual telecom operators and other new concepts, but also need a landing process. Suning is still applying for private banks.

The advantages of Suningyun (002024) are:

1, is still China's largest 3C entity chain retailers, solid network developed;

2, the establishment of a preliminary cloud computing model;

3, commodity categories and priorities;

4, Logistics Infrastructure domestic 3C field strongest;

5, the Internet finance, Virtual Telecommunications Operation Foundation is deep, the payment platform is complete.

October 2013, I gave the forecast is that the Suningyun Business 2014 Q3 will be better, 2014 Q1Q2 are relatively passive, or loss. This judgement continues to be upheld.

The good signals currently underway are:

1, suning two data, the financing data is much larger than the margin data, see more, buy empty trend is still obvious. As of May 6, 2014, margin margin data: financing balance of 2.512 billion yuan, margin of 10.0623 million yuan. This suggests that there is still a positive signal at the corporate level.

2, the entity, the line Fusion degree deepens, starts to rely on the superiority category sprint scale;

3, sub-business independent of 8 large companies, and continue to communicate with new strategic investors;

4, is strengthening the introduction of high-end Internet;

5, want to split the logistics subsidiaries, do not exclude listing.

There is also a point, the first mentioned 16 institutions to give suning this year, the loss of 403 million of the annual data. There are also articles in it. In the first quarter, Suning lost 438 million. Equal to say, Suning's annual loss is mainly in this first quarter. The second quarter still deficit, roughly in 300 million.

This means that in the fourth quarter of the third, it will stop bleeding, and the second quarter profit is about 340 million. This is one of the reasons why I judge the securities firms to short and suning in the second half.

It should be no problem for suning to return to profitability throughout 2015.

I don't give stock forecasts. There will be a rebound in the next two quarters in 2014, and then adjust to the off-season in the first quarter of 2015 years, and the real performance may be in the second quarter of 2015.

For retail investors, although Su Ning is a small and medium-sized stock, but the plate is too large, the consumption of a long period. However, in these two years, the company gave me the impression that it is really a strong transition.

If the risk of the long cycle, I think it is not the business side, but the human factors, especially the incentive policy.

Suningyun's current core management, is still the main force of Suning 1200 project, their understanding of the Internet needs to improve. And they this group of people, from the perspective of wealth, and did not really enjoy Su Ning before the glorious period of cake, the original formulation of the equity incentive policy, so far forget it. And the company's internet-born executives, Suning still lacks new incentives.

Under the current stock price and financial pressure, Su Ning how to stabilize the morale, and continue to inspire these people, this is a core problem. My judgment is that only when it really moves towards a stable and sustainable profit cycle, that is, in 2015, when the share price goes up a notch, there may be a new incentive policy.