Export survey: Behind the port warm

A series of policy factors and realistic factors make China's export to the subject of much concern, perhaps the timing of the transition of export products is ripe/"Financial national weekly" reporter Zhouyan Van Johong Zhangqingyuan June 22 afternoon, Qingdao Port New Harbor District container terminals busy scene.　　A container truck laden with cargo was transported to the dock to wait for the shipment, and a random red light on the road allowed the truck to line up and look at the head. "The increase in the volume of such a fire container exports is not what we thought at the beginning of this year. "Wharf Scene, Qingdao Port logistics company Deputy general manager Zhang Wei to" Finance and Economics national weekly "reporter said.　　The company has now exceeded its first-half export mission, which was set earlier this year. This is the current Chinese port foreign trade in miniature. In the port survey, many industry insiders expect this trend to continue in the second half of the year.　　Zhao Jinping, vice Minister of foreign Economic Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that in spite of the difficulties of rising labor costs and the impact of the European debt crisis, China's exports in the second half should remain at 15% per cent.　　Some analysts believe that it is the current and future period of the foreign trade situation optimistic estimates, making policy adjustment, strengthen the structural reform strategy to resolutely advance. June 22, the Ministry of Finance announced that, since July 15, the abolition of some steel, pharmaceutical, chemical products, non-ferrous metal processing materials such as export tax rebate, the total number of 406. This is the first time since July 2008 that the Chinese government has reduced its export tax rebate.　　June 19, the central bank announced further reform of the renminbi exchange rate.　　A series of policy factors and realistic factors make China's exports to the cause of concern, perhaps, export products upgrade the time is ripe for transformation. Warm to attack Qingdao Wanda International Freight forwarding company General Manager Assistant Li Xiaohong said, the company set up a decade, 2010 is the busiest year, even in the Spring Festival before and after the traditional industry off-season, the volume of business has not diminished. "Since March, the company has been increasing staff, business volume, growth rate of more than 10% in previous years." "All the routes are full and the freight rates are rising by two weeks."　　"Professional engaged in the import and export of container transport in Ningbo, named Yang Logistics Co., Ltd. General Manager Assistant Li Eijun said."　　China Shipping Container Transportation Co., Ltd. (601886.SH/2866.HK, hereinafter referred to as CSCL) Trade department staff said that the current foreign trade routes are very good, the United States is particularly strong, almost all of the full cabin, south-East Asia route, the European route also grew rapidly.　　China's container Export index, known as the Export Barometer, closed at 1171.54 on June 25, up 1.4% per cent from last week, and has been rising for a dozen consecutive weeks.　　Enterprises that specialize in the production of export products can also directly feel the warmth of their faces. "The current production line is all in operation, many orders."　　"Zhejiang British Geely Printing and Dyeing Co., Ltd. staff to the financial countries," said reporters. Qingdao Yao Jie Fashion Co., Ltd. mainly do OEMClothing export, its financial director Li Wenjie introduced, 2009 the company completed exports of 24 million U.S. dollars, and January 2010 to date the order has reached more than 40 million U.S. dollars, January ~ April has completed the order of 15 million U.S. dollars. "It's very clear that it's growing very fast.　　"The company's chairman, Zhang Zhenjie, said that 80% per cent of its orders came from Europe, and that 2010 's 20%~30% was higher than last year, with this increase every month." It is not just companies that are surprised by the export boom. "I was surprised by the 44% per cent year-on-year increase in Qingdao's exports in May, and it was able to maintain this growth in June."　　"Qingdao Business Bureau deputy Inspector Congyan to the" Financial countries weekly "Reporter said that at present, the external need should be no problem, labor-intensive enterprises in Qingdao accounted for 70%, enterprise orders can not do. June 21, Qingdao Port logistics company Deputy general manager Zhang Wei in the group work Conference received a new task, the second half of the performance to complete year-on-year growth of 22%, compared to the plan at the beginning of the year 10% higher. "Looking at the current situation, I am confident of completing the task."　　Zhang Wei said.　　Li Xiaohong said that the world's major shipping companies contacted by their companies would be confident of business volumes for the next three quarters, so at least 7, 8, 93 months in the second half of the year would still keep the high growth in the first half.　　In this regard, Credit Suisse Group Asia-Pacific chief economic analyst Suisse that, due to demand recovery and inventory replenishment, global orders are now pouring into China, including the United States, emerging markets and major European countries such as France and Germany.　　He believes that by the second half of 2010, Germany and other European countries will take fiscal contraction and cancel some orders, but "we believe that China's exports will maintain (year-on-year) 10% or even higher double-digit growth".　　The optimistic export forecasts for policy implications clearly strengthen the resolve of policymakers to push for reform. June 19, the central bank announced further reform of the renminbi exchange rate.　　A spokesman for the central bank pointed out that the current is a favorable opportunity for reform, its important basis is that "the current economic rebound to a better foundation for a more stable economic operation," at the same time, the reform will "help to promote economic restructuring, improve the quality and efficiency of development." June 22, 406 kinds of merchandise export tax rebate policy adjustment.　　From the product view, the cancellation of the export tax rebate products are mainly concentrated in primary steel, non-ferrous metals, agricultural chemicals and rubber glass products, are two high investment industries, that is, high-energy, high pollution and resource exports of products.　　In this respect, the head of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Commerce said the adjustment will not affect the growth momentum of foreign trade recovery. "The abolition of tax rebate policy may have an impact on the market in the short term, but it should not lead to a sharp decline in exports and will not change the overall development of foreign trade."　　The official said. On the day of the policy announcement, the study, issued by Citic Securities, found that the policy reflected the Government's determination to reduce and adjust backward steel production capacity. In addition, China now exports more than 10% of the global share of exports, which hasReach the bottleneck value, the export share of the continued promotion will face greater trade pressure, at this time the initiative to carry out the structural adjustment of Export tax rebate, help to ease trade disputes, to achieve the upgrade of export products transformation.　　Citic Securities also said that, although the future adjustment of export tax rebate may continue, but will remain concentrated in the two industries of the products, Citic still maintain the 2010 export growth of 22% of the judgment. Zhao Jinping also believes that exports are mainly determined by demand, if demand is still, then a single export tax rebate policy may not be able to prevent the export trend.　　He said the government should guide exports through a long-term, stable export tax rebate policy and a floating exchange-rate lever, which has been reversed in the past two years, with the exchange rate not moving since November 2008 and the rate of export rebates being constantly adjusted. "Now the exchange rate is back to floating mechanism, the export tax rebate policy should be stabilized, if two factors are swinging back and forth, the enterprise can not have stable expectations, the operation will inevitably be affected."　　"Zhao Jinping said. The change of the international situation, the rising of the labor force and the cost of raw materials also constitute the main basis for the export enterprises to observe the second half of the situation. "This is the factor we value most.　　Zhang Wei said. Tianjin garments Import and Export Co., Ltd. is mainly exported to Europe and America. Diranland, deputy director of his office, recently had a clear feeling that some companies were in trouble or even went bankrupt, and that some European customers were "deliberately finding fault" and asked for "discounts". From the actual transaction view, generally will reduce 5%, 10% transactions, return of the situation has also been more recently.　　Diranland that this has to do with Europe's debt crisis should have a strong correlation. Wang Xiaohua, a business manager for the European market in Qingdao Fulin Tyre Co., Ltd. orders from Europe began to decline in June, down 30% from May. As the euro exchange rate continues to decline, customers are mainly under short-term orders, the request to order immediately delivery. "It's all about what we have and the right thing to do," he said. Customers are particularly concerned about the delivery period, fearing that the long time will cause variables to increase costs.　　"But Wang Xiaohua also said that this does not mean that Europe's market demand is reduced, they still have a lot of demand, but now on the sidelines, the euro stability in a certain range, this demand will immediately appear."　　The number of orders for export companies is no longer worrisome, compared to the 2009.　　However, having an order does not mean a profit. "The profit of trade is more limited, the sales increase, but the profit margin is more limited, gross margin is 3%~4%."　　Li Chuanlong, director of International business at Qingdao Fulin Tyre Co., Ltd.　　Labor costs, raw material costs are rising, are shrinking the profit margins of export enterprises. "Our order has been increasing, but the profit has been decreasing." "Qingdao Yao Jie Fashion Co., Ltd. chairman Zhang Zhenjie said that the raw materials rose very strong, so far, raw cotton prices than before the spring Festival Rose 40%, the Spring Festival worker piece rate up 20%, the cost rises very badly." Net profit isDecreased by 10%.　　In addition, trade friction, all kinds of tariff barriers and technical barriers to the cost of enterprises, especially for processing trade export enterprises, profit space as a whole in the continuous narrowing. The urgent need for a sustained recovery in the transition, showing good exports, on the other hand, corporate profit margins are falling.　　At this point, the strength of the export enterprises are starting to expand the plant, hoping to increase production capacity to split the rising cost of pressure to achieve more profits.　　Qingdao Yao Jie Fashion Co., Ltd. chairman Zhang Zhenjie said that Yao Jie in the local 3 factories, the future will be built 3, there is already a start to build, early next year can be put into production. "Now if you don't expand, you die."　　Zhang Zhenjie told reporters that he hoped to reduce the cost pressures of workers ' wages, rising raw material prices and the possible appreciation of the renminbi through expansion. Zhang Zhenjie's company mainly for Europe's some well-known public brands do OEM export. He said that at least for the next 5 years, the OEM export will still be profitable.　　The basis is that at present, China's textile and apparel industry in the international market accounted for nearly 50% of the share of China's processing exports in the industrial Division of labor and industrial chain matching has a considerable advantage, no other countries can be replaced. But for the longer-term future, Zhang Zhenjie expressed concern. For example, Bangladeshi workers are currently paid much less than China, while Bangladesh produces raw cotton, which is not only of good quality but also of high production and costs far less than China. "We can't compete in Bangladesh for the future," he said. "Qingdao from the beginning of the enterprise recruitment difficulties have been widespread, Qingdao Commerce Bureau Deputy Inspector Congyan to the" Financial National weekly "reporter said that even if the enterprises are varying degrees of increase in wages, but workers still recruit discontent.　　Labor shortage has become an irreversible phenomenon, but also become a deadlock, will be a forced mechanism to force the transformation of enterprises. National Development and Reform Commission foreign Economic Research Institute director Zhang Yansheng June 27 in China's foreign trade 2010 Summer Situation Analysis meeting said that China as the world's factory, 30 years to participate in the international division of labor at low cost, mainly engaged in foundry manufacturing.　　The current model is under great pressure and China's transformation as a world factory will be quicker.　　This transformation does not mean leaving the manufacturing sector, not even leaving labor-intensive industries, Zhang Yansheng stressed, the key is how to make their own brand and marketing channels. Zhang Yansheng cautioned that the transformation from low-cost competition to differentiated competition and brand competition is very difficult, especially for the current large sector processing trade enterprises rely entirely on OEM and foreign trade sales channels, themselves without any transformation preparation. "If China were to face obstacles as a major transformation of the world's factories, China might be facing a prolonged period of low or even stagnant times like Japan's." "For the future, Zhang Zhenjie is not unprepared," he revealed, two years ago his company has begun to try to do their own brand, although now done very little, but already have their own design, sales, productionand stores. This business is aimed at the future of the domestic market.