Gartner announces 2014 Technology Hype Cycle Report

The development of technology often follows a predictable pattern, that is, first germination, then hype, then disillusionment, then the technology matures after the steady climb, and finally reached the application peak. Gartner, a research and Analysis Institute, annually launches such a technology hype cycle report that analyzes the trends in technology development. This year coincided with the 20 anniversary of the Hype Cycle report, which had just launched its 2014-year latest report yesterday. Its theme is digital enterprise.

The report evaluates the maturity of 119 categories and more than 2000 technologies, classifying these technologies into different hype cycle stages. Among them, digital workplace, networked home, Enterprise mobile Security, 3D printing and intelligent machine is the newly selected technology.

Garnter summed up the evolution of the digital enterprise in 6 stages, respectively:

1: Simulation
2:web
3: E-commerce
4: Digital Marketing
5: Digital Enterprise
6: The autonomy

The latter three stages of the emerging technology concentration of the place (that is, the hype more serious place).

• Digital Marketing

This phase emphasizes the linkage of power (mobility, social, cloud, information), focusing on new and more complex ways to reach consumers.

Related technologies include: Software definition everything, stereo and holographic display, neural commerce (neurobusiness), Data Science, normative analysis (prescriptive Analytics), complex event processing, large data, memory relational database, content analysis, mixed cloud, gaming, Augmented reality, cloud computing, virtual reality, gesture control, memory analysis, active flow, speech recognition.

• Digital Commerce

The focus of this phase will be shifted to the integration of people, businesses and things. The Internet of things and the blurring of reality and virtual worlds will become a strong concept at this stage. The digitized physical assets will become the counterpart of the original digital entity (System, application, etc.) in the commercial value chain. And the 3D printing makes the physical digitization further, will bring the subversive change to the supply chain and the manufacturing industry. Digitization of human attributes, such as healthy vital signs, is also part of this phase. Even the currency, which is actually now considered digitized, will change (such as a cryptographic currency such as Bitcoin).

Related technologies include: bio-acoustic induction, digital security, intelligent workplace, networked home, 3D biometric printing system, affective computing, voice to voice translation, Internet of things, encrypted currency, wearable user interface, consumer 3D printing, machine-to-machine Communication Service, mobile health monitoring, Enterprise 3D Print, 3D scanner, Consumer remote information processing.

• Autonomy

Autonomy is the most advanced stage in the post-relationship era. This stage of the enterprise will use technology to provide people or replace human capabilities. such as unmanned vehicle transporters or products (such as Google's unmanned vehicles, subversive drones, Luo-Rothen unmanned cargo ships), cognitive systems (such as IBM's million neuron-like brain chip truenorth) writing or answering customer questions are signs of a self-governing phase.

Related technologies include: Virtual personal assistants (Apple Siri, Google now, Microsoft Cortana, the new generation of personal assistants developed by Siri founder Viv), human function enhancement, brain-computer interface, quantum computing, intelligent robot, biochip, intelligent Advisor, unmanned vehicle, natural language question answering system.

From the picture can be seen in the bud and hype period of technology is more intensive, but many are expected to reach production peak within 5-10 years, including the Internet of things, wearable technology, encrypted currency, personal assistants, networked families, intelligent robots, unmanned vehicles and so on. And after the disillusionment of the technology, mostly in 5 years mature, such as voice recognition cloud computing, content analysis, Enterprise 3D printing.

Although there are some speculative elements in Gartner's report in the past years, the annual graph does give a visual impression of the overall technology trend, and there are some unique perspectives that are worthy of the practitioner's thinking. In particular, the technology for predicting the peak of real production in 5 years is of particular concern, as these are easier to verify. Let's say you can compare the 2012 forecast with something.