HA: House prices will still rise in the short term or a turning point in 2015

Oriental Network February 1 News: The Chinese economy will show "high growth and warm inflation" this year, while house prices will rise with the double stimulus of credit and inflation but could usher in a turning point in 2015, said Ha Jiming, chief economist at the China International Finance Corporation, at the New Year's forum at the School of Management, Fudan University, yesterday. GDP is up 9.5%, and Ha predicts China's economic growth of 9.5% this year.　　But inflation worries remain, and "high growth, warm inflation" will be the main feature of this year's economic performance. He analyzed that the external environment of China's economy continued to be good. The US economy grew 5.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, with an estimated 2.6% growth this year. As a result, the boost to China's export sector will emerge in the first two quarters of the year. "This year the most obvious is the rebound in exports, from 15% negative to 10% positive growth."　　"The investment, another driver of the economy, is still going to be" good money this year, and it predicts that fixed-asset investment can still grow at around 20%, up 30% last year. But he also cautioned that "investment, especially government-led investment, should be slowly withdrawn".　　He said the government's policy of regulating the economy in 2010 was dominated by adjustment, and that such an economic stimulus policy would not occur in 2009. "I personally think that this year will strictly control the approval of new projects to start." The new project has been drastically reduced and government investment will be based on the completion of construction projects begun in 2009.　　"This is because, as the central bank recently raised the reserve requirement ratio, the government's cautious stance on the fiscal and monetary two lines is mainly due to easing the already incipient inflationary expectations."　　Who says China doesn't consume?　　In response to the market understanding of "Chinese consumption is difficult to start" argument, Ha said unequivocally that China's consumption capacity is real. Last year, he said, Chinese people's incomes rose for the first time in excess of GDP growth. With last year's housing market blowout, bought a house to buy furniture, home appliances, and even buy cars, these are consumption.　　In China's rural areas, for example, GDP per capita will reach $3000 trillion by 2011, when rural car consumption will be officially launched. In the 2009, the shadow of the financial crisis resulted in the decline of the capacity of the urban enterprises to absorb the labor force, thus forming a tide of peasant workers returning home.　　He interprets the phenomenon as an opportunity to upgrade rural consumption. "The consumption habits and concepts of peasant workers have moved closer to urban dwellers, and after returning home they will replicate the city's consumption habits and patterns to the countryside." He said the replication effect would be more pronounced and long-lasting.　　Consumer demand for durable consumer goods in rural areas will rise significantly. In addition, with the combination of three networks and the extension of China's high-speed rail line, the future tourism, communication consumption will increase significantly, "the government is now using a lot of policy, the future consumption problem need not worry." "Price inflection point or in 2015 Shanghai House expensive, will not rise?"　　Ha said firmly that "short-term meeting", especially in the two or three-line city housing prices may still rise sharply. AccordingIn his calculations, the current monthly income of Shanghai's housing prices is 106%. From this point of view, the price of Shanghai is clearly "outrageous".　　But if you calculate from the perspective of "3 families supporting a house", "106 divided by 3" is clearly a very different answer. Ha also analyzed that the real estate industry's "rigid demand" in essence not only includes living, "investment in education and endowment" also become a function of real estate. Data show that China's real estate accounted for 57% of consumer spending, while Western developed countries generally accounted for about 1/3, on the other hand, China's social security accounted for about 2%, Western developed countries generally in the 20% to 30%.　　This shows that China's real estate consumption at the same time play a role in social security, and this is mainly due to the absence of related social security. In addition, credit for housing prices can not be underestimated. "Last year is more than 9 trillion yuan, this year may be 7.5 trillion yuan." "A sharp increase in money is bound to pull non-trade prices.　　He judged, therefore, that house prices would rise in the short term, with the inflection point likely to arrive in about 2015 years, and 2020 years after housing prices could fall.　　Raising social security and releasing the restrictions on the private sector in conclusion, the government also needs to pay more attention to health care, social Security and other consumer worries, and more channels of investment and management for private sectors of the economy. "When the Asian financial crisis was over 10 years ago, China adopted housing reform measures and joined the WTO, which provided the private sector with a lot of room for development in the field of real estate and export," he added. "There should be more development now, such as lowering the threshold for monopolies and monopolies, and reforming key resource prices so that private money can enter these areas and make money." These areas include health care, education, media, railways, utilities, etc. This can promote the labor market rate in the above areas, while solving the unemployment problem. "There is also a need to accelerate urbanisation," says Ha.　　He believes that the process of urbanization in China must be done thoroughly to achieve the urbanization of land transfer, so that the urbanization rate can reach the highest point in the near future. Biographical notes: Chief economist, China International Finance Corporation.　　1993 graduated from Kansas University of America, PhD in Economics. He has served as senior economist of the International Monetary Fund, representative of the International Monetary Fund in Indonesia and senior manager of the Economic Research Department of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.