Food and beverage industry: rising valuation of Boom recovery

Note: Each statistic form is behind the article. Today's investment based online analyst (www.investoday.com.cn) on the domestic more than 70 brokerage Institute of more than 1800 analysts of earnings forecast data statistics, this week, the comprehensive profit forecast (2009) to increase the number of 30 stocks in the front, the industry distribution is relatively concentrated, including the industrial and real estate industry 4 companies were selected , food production and processing industry has 3 companies selected.　　This period we choose food production and processing industry for comment. In the second half of China's economy is about to break out of deflation, may turn into inflation or stagflation sensitive period, dongxing securities that the choice of strong defensive varieties will be the capital market basic or even the first strategy, and the food and beverage industry for deflation and inflation have defensive functions, consumption rigidity of the sub-industry prices easy to　　Should become an important industry choice, the second is that the industry has a better boom or stronger sub-industry, comparative advantage is greater; third, most sub-industry performance growth potential, and the matching valuation premium also has a larger space. Wanguo also believes that the second half of the industry is expected to bring excess income, as a result of macroeconomic improvements in business activities, consumer confidence recovery, industry recovery, will bring industry profit growth over the overall level of the market, and the recovery will promote the plate valuation repair. Take the beverage industry as an example, 09/07/01 beverage industry key companies 09PE is 28 times times, and all key companies 09PE 23.8 times times, relative valuation multiples of 1.18, compared with the monthly average of 1.73 since 05, significantly underestimated, but also significantly lower than the United States and other countries.　　It is expected that with the industry recovery, terminal sales recovery and real performance growth rebound, the beverage industry valuation multiples are expected to rebound to around 1.5, resulting in B. excess income. For the main sub industry, Wanguo said: 1 liquor. High-grade liquor flexibility, dealers inventory, a number of rebound momentum will continue, brand-strong enterprises first recovery. A revival in the industry will push valuations to repair. Optimistic about Maotai, fen, old cellar, Wuliangye, and so on, including Shanxi fen similar to 06 years of Luzhou, marketing reform in the next few years will be expected to continue to exceed expectations. (2) beer. After the price of barley fell, the two or three-quarter margin expected to rebound, peak season after the arrival of sales growth and profit growth is expected to rise, the Chinese and third quarterly results may exceed expectations. (3) Wine. Industry space is large, will benefit from high-end food and beverage consumption rebound, but the impact of imports is not small. Optimistic about the long-term value of high dividend Changyu. (4) Meat products. Live pig prices continue to run low, the meat industry gross profit margin is expected to rebound. (5) Dairy products. Raw milk prices are basically stable, imports of low-cost milk powder impact was digested, enterprise production gradually resumed, profit level rebounded. Dongxing Securities also optimistic about the tomato sauce industry: Ketchup industry has occupied a larger share of foreign markets, has a higher product pricing power and comparative cost advantages, based on resources and capacity expansionOn the basis of the annual results will achieve greater growth, with the third quarter of the squeeze season began to release the performance and show the valuation advantage. Of the 30 stocks that were selected this week, 1 were expected to have a 2009 earnings ratio of less than 20 times, or 30 times times the 20. From today's investment stocks safety diagnosis, 20 stocks of the security stars are Samsung or above level.　　Of the 30 earnings forecasts for this week, we chose the Bright Dairy (600597) and the new five Fung (600975) to give a brief comment. ★ Bright Milk Industry (600597) product structure further enrich relative return (%) bright dairy Industry index profit forecast (yuan) 2009 Earnings Forecast change (yuan) bright Dairy (600597) year-on-year income decline of 1.74%, mainly in the non-main business income decline, especially industrial milk powder, At present, the company voluntarily compressed the size of the business. In addition, in the dairy industry as a whole restore 80% of the environment, the first quarter of the company's fresh milk and milk powder business is basically flat, and room temperature milk achieved 20% growth. Before the company in the field of enterprises, mainly in Jiangxi, Chengdu and Xi ' an three subsidiaries of the subsidiary losses are large, such as 08, Jiangxi Bright loss of 32.39 million yuan, Chengdu Bright loss of 19.5 million yuan.　　This year in the case of the sale of Jiangxi Heroes, Chengdu and Xi ' an two subsidiaries were reorganized, in the pure fresh milk business based on the increase of room temperature milk business, the current basic realization of profitability. Product structure is further enriched, 09 business growth can be period. Before the company has been mainly fresh milk business, and thus missed the normal temperature of the milk of the golden development period, which is also the main reason for its surrender industry leading position. After Guo Benheng, in keeping the original milk business development at the same time, began to focus on the normal temperature milk business, a quarter of normal temperature milk to achieve double-digit growth, and the new "Moslian" before the three-month sales of nearly 40 million yuan, room temperature milk market share from about 6% to 9%.　　Normal temperature milk business is expected to become the company's performance growth this year a bright spot. 08 reported in the company's gross profit margin of 32.64%, a quarterly report of 37.26%, the main reason for the rise is the foreign factory gross profit margin, currently up to 30%. Company's products, normal temperature milk gross profit margin of 26%-30%, fresh milk for more than 40%. In the field of performance improvement, Haitong Securities are expected this year's gross margin will rise, but take into account the normal temperature of milk business accounted for the rise will pull low comprehensive gross profit margin.　　Therefore, it is not big to judge the margin increase. The possibility of the transfer of real equity to Guangming Group is greater. In order to specialize in the main business, the leader of the real holding said that a bright equity transfer will be held during the year. Haitong Securities that the largest possible transfer of equity to another major shareholder in Shanghai Milk Group, so that its controller-Shanghai Guangming Group can fully hold the company, so that the company into the Shanghai dairy Business platform, and in the future may be the light group's pasture and other business also injected into the marketCompany。 Today's investment in online analyst shows: In 2009-2011, the company's earnings forecasts were 0.14, 0.22 and 0.27 respectively, with a corresponding dynamic P/E ratio of 53, 34 and 27 times; There are currently 7 analyst trails, of which 2 are given a "buy" rating and 3 are given "wait-and-see" ratings,　　2 to give a "moderate reduction" rating, a comprehensive rating factor of 3.00. Risk factors: First, the industry risk, the current milk homogenization of the competition is fierce. The second is the risk of bovine disease and epidemic prevention.　　Third, the product quality risk. ★ New Five Fung (600975) export gross profit margin is expected to rebound relative return (%) new five-Feng index profit forecast (yuan) 2009 Earnings forecast changes (yuan) the core business of the new five Fung (600975) is for the export of Hong Kong and Macao pigs, the 08 revenue accounted for about 50.13%. The quota management system is applied to the pig export in China, and the three policies of the quota management, the agency line system and the right to export operation of live pigs in the 08 have changed greatly. In particular: 1 cancellation of daily quota management, the implementation of monthly quota management, more market-oriented quota management, 2 of the original unified agent mode of cancellation, adding more than the agency; 3 the grant of the right to operate the export of live pigs increased, market participants increased.　　Pig export industry management more market-oriented, industry competition will intensify, so that in the short term so that the Hong Kong market a certain degree of disorderly competition. The company's bright spot is that 09 export gross profit margin is expected to rebound. Because of political reasons, the Hong Kong pig market on the mainland price conduction lag and slow, which also formed the pig export Enterprises unique profit cycle "Mainland pork price rise-export enterprise profits decline, the mainland pork prices down-export enterprises earnings rebound." CICC believes that 09 domestic pork prices out of the possibility of a V-shaped trend, the three-quarter domestic prices are expected to enter the upward cycle, when the export business earnings rebound trend will come to an ending, compared to the past two years, the 09 pig export gross Profit margin will be a sharp rebound. In addition, the Leiyang project will be fully put into operation in the first half of this year (129,000 pigs, the original production capacity of 132,000), thus greatly reducing the proportion of pig export and increase the export business gross profit margin, and with the increase in capacity utilization, Leiyang project will also be profitable (08 loss 1.68 million yuan). Overall, the annual export gross margin of 09 is expected to rebound 6.5% to 14.2% (gross profit margin 6.9% in the first half of 08, 8.9% in the second half) today investment "online analyst" shows: the company 2009, 2010 comprehensive earnings forecast value of 0.13, 0.17 yuan,　　The corresponding dynamic P/E ratio is 65 and 49 times times; There are currently 2 analyst trails, of which 1 suggest "buy", 1 suggest "wait-and-see", and a comprehensive rating factor of 2.50. Risk hint: 1 The risk of swine disease epidemic; 2 The change of pig's export quota management systemOrder competition may adversely affect the company's business. Remark: The stock star is detailed see?　　Page description. 2009 earnings forecast to increase stock List stock code stock short name industry closing price (yuan) synthesis 09EPSe (current) synthesis 09EPSe (last week) Amplitude of change (sort) investment stocks safety diagnosis Fundamentals technology Face institutional Identity security star 600896 Zhong Hai sheng water transport 11.490.210.1540287965★★★000930 Fengyuan biochemical Chemical Products 5.980.150.1136.36262378★★601003 Liuzhou shares metals and mining 8.190.120 120238661★★600991 Changfeng Automobile manufacture 10.050.340.2917.24425784★★★000014 Shahe shares real estate 16.211.311.1414.91859260★★★★600601 founder Science and Technology computer hardware and equipment 4.520.080.0714.2920 2859★★600879 Rocket shares aerospace and defense 10.260.390.3511.43663165★★002149 Western material Metals and mining 37.10.30.2711.11669158★★★★600283 Qianjiang Water Conservancy water 10.270.20.1811.11833828★★★0009 88 Chinese laborers Science and technology electronic equipment and instruments 12.250.410.3710.81949258★★★★600251 agricultural shares food production and processing 32.221.471.3310.53452069★★002181 Guangdong Media Commercial Services 10.850.110.1010498730★★★000619 Conch Profile Building materials 10.690.450.419.76529595★★★★★002068 Black Cat shares chemical products 8.80.340.319.6824179★002092 chemical work products 13.750.240.229.09415773★★★000562 Hongyuan Securities and securities brokerage 25.910.600.5 59.09647059★★★002085 Auto Parts 8.540.250.238.7207959★★★002223 Diving Medical medical equipment and health products 25.80.630.588.62983645★★★600109 National Gold Securities brokerage 26.070.510.478.51578 162★★★600052 Zhejiang Guangsha Real estate 11.430.520.488.33869047★★★★600975 New Wu Feng food production and processing 8.40.130.128.3353450★★000400 Xu Relay electric Power Equipment 19.60.520.488.33284767★★★600997 Kailuan shares coal 24.210.660.618.2799295★★★★★600597 Bright dairy food production and processing 7.370.140.137.6916431★600351 Pharmaceutical Co., 11.630.420.397.69836784★★★★★0005 40 Zhongtian City Investment real Estate 18.430.60.567.14997958★★★★600867 Tonghua Dongbao pharmaceutical 12.070.30.287.1463245★★000042 deep wall real estate 24.990.790.746.76509894★★★★★002094 Qingdao King King Chemical Products 8.850.32 0.306.67303368★★000839 Citic Guoan Information Technology and service 16.60.330.316.45718277★★★★ Note: 1　　The profit forecast data in the above table is provided by the Investment Financial Information Co., Ltd. (www.investoday.com.cn), which has been collated and processed by more than 1800 analysts of more than 70 brokerage institutes in China. 2) Synthesis 08EPSe: reflects the overall expectation of the research institution on earnings per share in 2008, that is, the average of all analysts ' earnings forecasts for 2008 per share of the stock in the current (within 90 days).　　The value will change as the analyst continues to follow the study, representing, to a certain extent, the average expectation of the market and its changes, but does not represent the company's actual profit level for 2008. 3 change Amplitude: The formula is: (Current comprehensive forecast value-last comprehensive forecast value)/last comprehensive forecast value.　　The larger the number, the greater the current analyst's adjustment to the stock's earnings forecasts for 2008, and the smaller the adjustment. 4 Today Investment stocks safety diagnosis: Today's investment alone stock comprehensive evaluation model. It carries on the comprehensive appraisal to the stock fundamentals, the technical aspect, the organization approval degree three aspects, simultaneously has the other important financial index as well as the present investment summary domestic and foreign more than 1800 analyst research results as the revision target, finally forms a set of scientific and rational stock diagnosis system. Safety diagnosis in the star-style performance, divided into one star, two stars, Samsung, four stars, five star total of five standards. Star high, indicating that the overall security of the stock is high, the potential risk is low, conversely, the overall security is poor, at least in one respect, there may be risk factors, stock price uncertainty is greater. Among them: fundamental security Diagnosis: scoring interval 1-100 points. High score, indicating the growth rate, profitability and other indicators good, fundamental risk is low; technical surface safety diagnosis: scoring interval 1-100 points. High score, the pure technical analysis of the indicators are good, the stock price performance is strong, technical side of the risk is low; institutional identity safety diagnosis: scoring interval of 1-100 points. High score indicates market research institutionand investment institutions have a high degree of recognition of related stocks, and the risk of market supply and demand is lower. This week's analyst-focused stock List stock code stock abbreviation industry 09p/ E08eps09epse Rating Factor rating number analyst comprehensive rating 20,000 branch a real estate 30.980.370.461.6324 buy 000568 Luzhou old cellar beverage production 27.660.911.121.5622 buy 600048 poly Real estate 31.840.70.951.6722 buy 601 166 Societe Generale bank 15.742.282.361.8021 buy 600600 Tsingtao beer beverage production 37.470.530.782.0620 buy 000063 ZTE Communication equipment 24.030.951.331.4820 buy 600016 Minsheng Bank Bank 14.840.420.532.1319 Wait and see 000024 China Merchants Real estate 37.450.710.992.0618 buy 600887* St Yili food production and processing 28.58-2.110.561.8918 buy 601169 Beijing Bank bank 16.750.870.951.9018 buy 601398 ICBC bank 14.620.330.361.8217 buy 000729 yanjing beer Beverage production 28.880.380.551.811 7 Buy 600383 Gold Land Group Real estate 30.870.390.581.8917 buy 600418 Jianghuai automobile manufacturing 39.040.040.172.0817 buy 600028 Sinopec Oil and gas 19.70.340.601.9317 buy 600036 Merchants Bank 18.141.11.0 11.9316 buy 600487 hengtong optoelectronic communication equipment 26.740.640.861.8316 buy 600519 Guizhou Maotai beverage production 29.934.035.081.6016 buy 000402 Jinrongjie real estate 28.450.420.501.8616 buy 601328 Bank of communications 15.690 580.602.0316 buy 601009 Nanjing Bank Bank 20.430.790.882.2516 Wait and see 601857 China Oil and gas 23.340.620.622.0616 buy 601939 CCB bank 14.610.40.422.0016 buy 8,585 Grain liquid Beverage production 3 1.410.480.662.1416 wait and see 000983 xishan Coal-electricity coal 31.191.441.081.6316 buy 000895 double sinks to develop food production and processing 26.151.151.421.5315 buy 000869 Changyu a beverage production 28.71.72.001.9415 buy 601899 Zijin Mining Metals and mining 43.260.210.261.9315 buy 000001 Deep development A bank 16.50.201.382.1215 wait and see 600362 Jiangxi Copper Metal and mining 58.630.760.582.2915 wait and see Description: 1.　　The above data for today's investment Financial Information Co., Ltd. (www.investoday.com.cn) of more than 70 domestic brokerage Institute of more than 1800 analyst earnings forecasts and investment rating data to be collated and provided.　　2. Rating coefficient: 1.00~1.09 strong buy, 1.10~2.09 buy, 2.10~3.09 wait and see, 3.10~4.09 moderate reduction, 4.10~5.00 sell. 3 07EPS: The value plus ' E ' indicates the forecast value, without adding the actual published value the analyst's highest stock list for this week stock code stock abbreviation industry 09p/ E08eps09epse Rating Factor analyst comprehensive rating 900921 Dan Division B chemical 40.310.060.221.00 strong buy 900950 Metro B Real estate 11.710.370.521.00 strong buy 000776S Yanbian road transport infrastructure N a0.07n/ A1.00 strong buy 8,833-ring shares of auto manufacturing 24.610.110.231.00 strong buy 600622 ka Bao Group real estate 22.070.320.571.00 strong buy 600609 Gold Cup auto manufacturing 62.71-0.230.071.00 strong buy 600826 rand shares wholesale n /a0.03n/ A1.00 strong buy 600184 Xinhua light Power Equipment 53.410.070.411.00 strong buy 000679 Dalian Friendship Retail 18.010.560.981.00 Strong buy 000656ST Dongyuan real estate 28.270.040.521.00 strong buy 000419-pass program-controlled stock retail 44.670.11 0.161.00 strong buy 000099 Citic Sea Direct air freight and express 27.860.180.281.00 strong buy 600306 Commercial shops n/a-0.12n/ A1.00 strong buy 600589 Guangdong Banyan Thai Chemical Products 19.880.220.341.00 strong buy 600546 in the oil-building construction project 23.460.011.141.00 strong buy 600565 di Ma shares of automobile manufacturing 24.170.150.231.00 strong buy 200022 Shenche B transport Infrastructure 14 321.000.701.00 strong buy 600064 Nanjing Gao Ke other comprehensive class 35.250.560.701.00 strong buy 600101Star Electric Power 21.520.280.331.00 strong buy 600172 Yellow River Cyclone Machinery manufacturing 28.680.140.251.00 strong buy 002152 Radio and TV Express computer hardware and equipment 23.10.971.191.31 buy 000042 deep wall Real estate 31.570.030.791.33 buy 00 2010 transfer of shares of chemical products 18.80.370.511.33 buy 002226 Jiangnan chemical chemical products 31.220.440.961.33 buy 000910 major Asian science and technology forestry and paper products 18.90.380.481.33 buy 000014 Shahe shares real estate 12.410.221.311.33 buy 0000 　　281 Pharmaceutical food and drug sales 25.340.540.751.36 buy 002003 Wei star shares of textiles and apparel 18.940.780.911.44 buy 600880 Bo Rui media 31.020.520.701.47 buy 002073 Qingdao soft control software 23.830.790.921.47 buy Description: 1.　　The above data for today's investment Financial Information Co., Ltd. (www.investoday.com.cn) of more than 70 domestic brokerage Institute of more than 1800 analyst earnings forecasts and investment rating data to be collated and provided.　　2. Rating coefficient: 1.00~1.09 strong buy, 1.10~2.09 buy, 2.10~3.09 wait and see, 3.10~4.09 moderate reduction, 4.10~5.00 sell. 3 07EPS: Value Plus ' e ' to indicate the predicted value, without adding the actual advertised values