Forecasting the most prospective analyst Haitong Securities Chen Lu: credit is in line with expectations

June 11 Morning News, the NBS released its May economic data today. "Stock market weekly" and CCTV2 "market Analysis room" jointly launched by the Sina Finance exclusive network released "China's macroeconomic data May consensus" survey, of which Haitong Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Chen Lu to the economic data forecast most accurate.　　She said the credit was in line with market expectations, running at the "3322" pace at the start of the year and not enough to start the rate hike cycle.　　Chen Lu said that new loans in May compared to the April 774 billion yuan fell, which is expected in the market, neither exceeding the expected austerity, nor the expected delivery, credit on the regulatory level in the regulation of the scope, and did not show a further tightening of the trend, or maintain the original credit rhythm. However, the current peripheral countries have more economic emergencies, so in domestic policy, especially in relation to economic development policy, Chen Lu that "follow-up more cautious, is currently in the observation phase."　　She predicts that there is limited room for a rise in the reserve requirement ratio, and that, combined with export data, the current "need" to increase the renminbi's exchange rate flexibility, pending market expectations after the revaluation of the renminbi. Happily, the May CPI and PPI data were in full agreement with Chen Lu forecasts. And looking at the two figures, she notes, "This is not enough to be a major proof of interest rate hikes, but to follow up."　　"Chen Lu points out that the three quarter is a sensitive window of monetary policy, if the 7 August did not raise interest rates, then the four-quarter interest rate increase in the momentum will also be weakened, and from the current data is not enough to start the rate hike cycle." From the overall situation analysis, real estate regulation effect appears, each aspect of data will reach a peak in 6-9 months, she predicted will be in the downward state. For example, with the development of the economy, the stage of a sharp upturn in economic demand is over, and the future should be a period of moderate inflation, so the PPI rally is weakening, but it will rise modestly to the peak after 7 August. (Super Yan from Beijing)