Foreign investment banks: trade data may fall in the medium term

Securities Times reporter Sun Yuan the China Customs Foreign trade data show that the April import and export growth rate of 49.7% and 30.5%, foreign trade surplus, for 1.68 billion U.S. dollars.　　Foreign investment bank analysts believe that the rebound in exports from the mainland shows a double pull for external demand rebounding and export structure escalation, but in the medium term, exports are likely to fall as a result of the credit crunch and the European debt crisis, as demand for commodities weakens and imports grow faster. Goldman Sachs said the March trade deficit was a temporary phenomenon, because the very sluggish exports and unusually strong imports of the month were not sustainable. The April data confirms this view. Although this year's cumulative trade surplus is expected to be at its lowest level in recent years, it can be seen as an improvement in import and export imbalances, but this state is unsustainable.　　The main reason is that, in the very strong broad money supply and overall demand growth, the economic overheating pressure is rising, unless exports fall again, so the government is likely to use credit control, such as in previous years to curb investment, and thus lead to a further expansion of the trade surplus. Yangqingli, head of the international managing Director and research director of the bank, said that the rebound in export growth in April was necessarily related to the upturn in external economic conditions in the past few months. "China is now facing a narrowing of the U.S. surplus, while exports to the EU have not been affected by the debt crisis." "She further explained that China's trade surplus with the US in April was $1.17 billion trillion, which was significantly narrower than the $9.87 billion trillion in March, which could partly reduce the upward pressure on the renminbi, and that China's exports to the EU in April rose by 28% per cent year-on-year.　　The surplus also expanded from $6.96 billion trillion in March to $8.28 billion, which shows that China's exports to the EU have yet to be badly hit by the European debt crisis. Pengcheng, chief economist at Citibank China, said that international commodity demand was also affected by the slowdown in overall economic growth in the second half of the year, as well as real estate controls, and the recent rapid growth of imports driven by strong domestic demand in China was unsustainable.　　At the same time, he said, exports will face some difficulties this year, so that the surplus is under pressure. Yangqingli expects exports to continue to grow faster over the next three months, but import growth is likely to decline. The positive thing about exports, she says, is that as the US economy continues to recover, China's exports to emerging markets continue to grow at a rapid pace, and China's exports to Europe are more of the low-end consumer goods, the negative impact of the European debt crisis is less severe than the market has imagined.