Foreign media says China may not raise interest rates in the year to give priority to renminbi appreciation
Source: Internet
Author: User
China's economic network, Beijing, September 16 (Zhang Michi) A survey conducted by Bloomberg suggests that the PBoC may give priority to letting the renminbi appreciate rather than raise interest rates in curbing price increases. Economists surveyed said the central bank would have little chance of raising benchmark interest rates at least until the end of the year, and that it would be next year or later if interest rates were to be raised. China's benchmark renminbi deposit rate of one-year deposits is now 2.25%, well below the August consumer price index of 3.5%, released by the National Bureau of Statistics in China last week. So far, China's CPI has risen more than the benchmark deposit rate for 7 consecutive months. Even as China's price levels rise further, the likelihood of the PBoC raising interest rates is slim, as the rate hike could hamper China's economic growth and impact the property market, economists surveyed said. Economists say the renminbi's one-year deposit rate is expected to remain at 2.25% per cent by the end of this year, while the renminbi's one-year lending rate will remain unchanged at 5.31%. Economists point out that the PBoC may give priority to letting the renminbi appreciate by curbing domestic price rises. A stronger renminbi will not only reduce the purchasing costs of Chinese companies ' imports of raw materials, but also help ease the pressure on the international community to revalue the renminbi. Economists surveyed predict that by the end of this year, the renminbi will appreciate 1.4% against the dollar, and the renminbi will rise to 6.65:1 at the end of the dollar. "Raising interest rates does not increase the supply of pork in the market and has little effect on easing prices," said Tom Orlik, a stone& McCarthy associates analyst at the U.S. Treasury. "Rising food prices are the main reason for pushing up the Chinese consumer price index," he said. "Of the 19 senior economists surveyed, 13 economists believe that China's benchmark interest rate will not change until the end of the year." A handful of economists believe the PBoC may raise interest rates by the end of the year. Most economists agree that the PBoC could adjust its monetary policy in the first half of next year.
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