"Fortune": The Survival of PC in the mobile revolutionary era

For PC makers, Charles Darwin's theory of evolution is more correct than ever: either adapt to fast-evolving environments or die out.

"The PC industry is in the Forrester of Jurassic Park," explains J.p Gawande, vice president of Forrester Research. A child asked the professor: ' Where did the dinosaurs go? The professor replied, ' We see them every day: they become birds. ’”

Indeed, it's no secret the PC industry is fast

In fact, it is no secret that the PC industry is evolving rapidly, and the change is not entirely reluctantly. According to the Global market research Group Internet Data Center (IDC) statistics, the last quarter, the global PC shipments decreased by 14%, the four consecutive quarterly year-on-year decline. Moreover, PC shipments are expected to continue to fall by 8% per cent by the end of 2013.

The main reason for this situation is the growing popularity of mobile devices such as tablet computers. According to IDC forecast, by 2015, global Tablet PC shipments will surpass PC, reach 332.4 million units, and PC shipments will be only 322.7 million. For ordinary computer users, and even some corporate users, the advantage of using tablets is obvious: why bother carrying a laptop when you can carry a lighter, cheaper, and essentially identical device?

Traditional PCs have also come to an inflection point, with Dell laptops, which cost 400 dollars from Best Buy, can handle most day-to-day tasks and can be used for many years in a row. This was not the case before, Gawande recalls: "Previously, every time the Windows operating system was upgraded, it needed a stronger chip and a more powerful computer, and it had to have more memory and higher horsepower to run the new operating system." ”

But starting with Microsoft's window 7, the resources needed to run the operating system on the same-era PC have been drastically reduced. Window 7 cuts down many of the features that make Windows Vista system bloated. It means that more users, consumers, and businesses can upgrade the operating system on existing devices, no longer need to update computer hardware or buy new machines.

While the outlook for PCs looks grim, PCs will not go away. There are still a lot of tasks that tablets and smartphones can't do, or at least it's not done well. Many companies, such as Lenovo, prove that the decades-old industry remains vibrant. Fortune, a recent article in Fortune magazine, revealed that Lenovo's investment in PC research and manufacturing has increased the size of the Chinese technology giant by three times times, with sales of more than $33 billion trillion, since acquiring IBM's PC division in 2005. It does not take the usual road design including the acclaimed IdeaPad Yoga laptop, which can be turned from a laptop to a window 8 Tablet PC.

Changing markets have forced other PC makers to focus more on creativity, thus contributing to Gawande's so-called unprecedented experimental period in computer history. Earlier this year, for example, Dell released a 5-pound XPS 181-body machine. The machine is equipped with 18.4-inch touch screen, which means that users can move at will at home. There are reports that Acer, the Taiwanese company, will try different directions. Acer's new All-in-one next week will give up Microsoft and Intel (Intel) to run Google's Android operating system while using Texas Instruments (Texas Limited) chips.

These products are precisely the reasons why analysts such as Gawande and Gartner, the Beichuan of Gartner, are optimistic about the PC industry. They argue that the PC industry is still able to keep up even if the PC is down. According to Gartner, the downward trend in PC capacity will start in the United States starting next year, down about 4% per cent to 180 million units, and will spread globally in 2015. In the past, a family of three may have two to three computers, but Beichuan, the United States, predicts that this will not be the case. Consumers will use a tablet computer to do most of the work, and PCs will be used to do some heavy tasks.

As computers take on the necessary evolution, they will appear in more surprising ways. Some things have appeared in the industry, such as Google glasses. "Embedded computing Devices" will even appear. The computing activities of such devices do not require a large number of user input, but can track the user's daily life: Nest Intelligent Thermostat is the best example. Gawande said: "If so, it is the equivalent of the Raptors into birds." "(Fortune Chinese Network)

(Responsible editor: Lu Guang)