Four large market model stock Agricultural Bank of the future like who?

Agricultural Bank A shares in Thursday finally listed in Shanghai. Whether to hold the IPO price in the weak city has become the focus of the market.　　And from Thursday 9:30 the beginning of the trading of the moment, Agricultural Bank of China began to fight the first shot, two consecutive days to pay 1 billion shares to hold the price of 2.68 yuan, called a A-share in the history of the campaign to protect the most intense scene. Historically, there have been several famous mega-market shares issued by state-owned enterprises, such as Air China (601111, closing 10.65 yuan), ICBC (601398, closing price of 4.15 yuan) and so on the market has a huge impact. Due to the 11th trading day after the listing (July 29) ABC will be included in the index, so future agricultural bank trend will undoubtedly become an important factor affecting the market.　　Looking back on the history of the Super large stock market, combined with the great environment at that time, the daily economic news found that there were four models of comparability.　　CCB H-Shares (October 2005 listing), 9 days, ushered in an intermediate market if the market environment from the release, the same as one of the four major state-owned Bank of CCB 2005 issued H shares and today's ABC is the most similar. In 2003, the Hang Seng index started at 8,331, until September 2005, when it was slowly shaking. Although the Hang Seng index had reached 15,000 points, investors remained extremely cautious as markets were always looking back.　　At this time, CCB launched the H-share market, the largest IPO, the issue of 26.49 billion shares, offering a price of HK $2.35, a full diluted earnings ratio of about 13 times times. The issue of the construction Bank's H-share could be described as extremely difficult, and the CCB even launched all the employees to subscribe for work, only reluctantly issued a successful.　　October 27, 2005, the Construction Bank H-shares listed on HKEx. In the initial stage after the listing, the market is still not bullish on CCB H shares.　　On the day of the listing, the company's H shares fluctuated considerably, with a minimum price of HK $2.35 and a maximum price of HK $2.375. But the next day, the worrying thing happened. The bank fell below its IPO price, falling to HK $2.30, the lowest since its H-share listing. The same day, the CCB H shares at the issue price of HK $2.35.　　Then until November 8, 2005, the Nineth trading day after the listing, the construction bank's shares did not exceed HK $2.35. In the 10th trading day after the IPO of the CCB H shares, the turnaround has finally appeared.　　On the same day, CCB Rose 4.26%, to the highest price of 2.45 Hong Kong dollars a day, a deal of HK $6.3 billion, the CCB H-share of the bull market is announced. February 23, 2006, the Construction Bank H-shares completed the first performance after the listing, up to HK $3.85, up from the IPO price rose 63.8%. By the peak of 2007, CCB H shares amounted to HK $8.97.　　With the rise of the company's H-shares after the IPO, the Hang Seng index has also changed the early stage of the downturn in the running posture, launched a super big bull market. Air China (601111,2006 August) highThe big big bull stock--the issue of Air China's shares--has a lot in common with AgBank today. 2006, in the reform of the promotion, a-share market bull has begun. In July of this year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 1700多 points and began to adjust more sharply. August 7, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 1500多 points, technical dual-head is forming.　　What worries people most is whether the bull market can continue. In this context, Air China A shares eventually had to "slimming" issue, the total size of the issue from the previous announcement of not more than 2.7 billion shares, down to no more than 1.639 billion shares.　　The issue price 2.80 yuan/share is also only in the original inquiry interval of the median line.　　Nevertheless, Air China is still in the cold, the net under the purchase of only 27 institutions effective subscription, the final placement ratio of more than 80%, and 5.33% of the online check rate also created at the time of the new issue of "the old cut off" since the record. August 18, 2006, Air China shares listed. But there is no accident, the first day of the listing of Air China directly to break the price of 2.78 Yuan opened, the lowest fell to 2.74 yuan. However, Air China at the end of the closing to withstand the pressure of the selling to 2.80 yuan of the issue of the offer.　　Next, the price of Air China continues to be at the bottom of the offer, the minimum of 2.74 yuan, the highest there is no more than 2.80 yuan. In the tenth trading day after the listing, Air China ushered in a turnaround. September 4, 2006, the volume of Air China rose 2.53%, a recovery of the IPO price, to 2.84 yuan.　　Since then, Air China's appreciation of the East wind has been out of hand, the share price rose to 30 yuan in 2007, up 10 times times. Air China's turnaround is also a turnaround for the market.　　On August 21, 2006, even as the central bank raised interest rates again, the index was low and high, and the fall became an excellent buying opportunity for the bull market to go beyond everyone's imagination.　　AgBank's IPO is similar to that of an Air China IPO, not just in a similar market environment, but also in the same super high rate. As can be seen from the announcement, ABC online distribution and the same as Air China by retail "cold shoulder"; its initial online check rate reached 9.5%, higher than the net initial placement ratio of 8.86%.　　After the start of the callback mechanism, the bank's online check rate is still as high as 9.29%, far higher than the other listed banks in the share market online issuance rate. China Unicom (600050,2002 October) to build a year to test the patient a A-share history, the market is low confidence in the issue of the super large market shares is not a minority.　　The 2002 China Unicom is also a famous example. September 2002, Unicom to 2.30 yuan per share price issue 5 billion shares; At that time, the A-share market is in the 2001-2005-year four-year bear markets in the middle stage, lax market sentiment, the daily turnover of the cities are often less than tens of billions of dollars. In this context, unicom A-share more than tens of billions of dollars in financing also received a cold shoulder, the two-tier market placement rate reached 2.75% (at the time of the IPODistribution is not implemented online purchase). October 9, 2002, China Unicom A shares listed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange.　　Before the IPO, many market participants were pessimistic about the trend of China Unicom shares listed in the bear markets, and even some analysts believe that it will take at least half a year for the shares to stabilise after the IPO. And Unicom listed on the day out of the high low go trend, in order to 3.05 Yuan opened after the stock price all the way down, closed when the stock price has fallen to 2.87 yuan, up to 24.78% price, turnover rate only 26.07%. China Unicom's less than 30% per cent rise was prosaic, compared with the fact that other small-plate IPOs were doubling on the first day of the day.　　And in the three months after the IPO, Unicom trend is also passable, almost never touch the 3 yuan mark. At the beginning of 2003, Unicom fell three months after the shock, and finally a decent rebound.　　January 14, 2003, Unicom hit the IPO after the first trading board, closed at 3.07 yuan, but at the same time the whole day turnover rate of 7.15%, the market on the future trend of China Unicom still have great differences. For the remainder of 2003, Unicom was still in shock for most of the time. Until the end of 2003 2004, with the help of "3G" Dongfeng and demolition of the rumors, Unicom finally out of the IPO after the first big market.　　In February 2004, the price was dashed to 5.36 yuan, which was not broken until three years later in February 2007.　　Weak city listing, up to a year to build the bottom, if the ABC copy Unicom's trend of the year, this for the current investors holding AgBank, is undoubtedly the test of patience.　　Yangtze River Power (600900,2003 November 18) The watershed in the market from weak to strong in general, it is difficult to get out of a big-market rally after a bear market midfielder, but the Yangtze power issue at the end of 2003 is an exception. November 2003, the Yangtze River power to 4.30 yuan per share price issue 2.326 billion shares, raise funds near tens of billions of dollars.　　Unicom listed with a year ago in sharp contrast to the cold, the Yangtze River Power on the first day of the listing (November 18, 2003) by the market favored by the increase, more than 40%, turnover rate reached 58.93%, far beyond Unicom. After the first day of listing, the Yangtze River Power continues to be favored by funds, out of a wave of nearly three months of rising prices. February 4, 2004, the Yangtze River Electric shock 10 yuan Mark failed, at this time the stock price has been on the first day the lowest price rose 62.85%.　　In the remaining time of 2004, the Yangtze River Power has been 8~10 yuan between the box vibration, but has not been able to break through the 10 Yuan pass. And for the end of 2003, the early 2004 of the A-share market, the Yangtze River Power Market is undoubtedly a great boon.　　Before the Yangtze River Power Market, the A-share market has been a large six-year decline in the channel, starting from the April 2003 peak of 1649 points, to November 13 has fallen to 1307 points, the interval fell more than 20%. and the Changjiang powerAfter the city's good performance has led to a number of other weights of the recovery, such as China Merchants Bank, etc. have been different degrees of rise, the Shanghai Composite Index has thus entered a four-month rebound cycle.　　On March 22, 2004, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 1760 points, up 34.66% from its November 2003 lows. Although AgBank has been struggling to defend its IPO price at the start of the IPO, there is no doubt that AgBank's late even a modest rally is a huge "reassurance" for the market. The Agricultural Bank can be listed as the Yangtze River Power, as a share market watershed, waiting for time to test.