Game Policy

In the context of China's economic growth and decline, according to their different interpretation of macroeconomic data and development trends, the policy to maintain the tone of austerity or low-key relaxation of the different judgments, capital market investment opportunities also emerged. The policy of Citic Securities Jianfang chief economist in the second half of 2010 will reflect the idea of structural adjustment and adopt structural relaxation policy. In the second half of 2010 the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, the new credit will reach about 3 trillion yuan. Fiscal policy may increase the level of spending, structural relaxation and restructuring of the combination of policies will promote economic growth stability.　　Economic growth slowed in the two quarter of 2010, and we expect the slowdown to ease in the three quarter of 2010, with a rebound in four-quarter GDP growth. Wanguo Shang, chief strategy analyst, in July 2010, the investment-goods sector performed well under the restoration-driven valuation repair. At the beginning of August, as the market entered the concussion period, the investment goods plate had a low ebb.　　It is expected that the strict implementation of backward capacity elimination will improve the supply of investment goods industry, the guarantee room pushes forward comprehensively, the construction speed up, the urbanization accelerates, the flood disaster reconstruction will improve the investment goods industry demand, under the supply and demand double impetus, the investment goods plate (cement, steel, papermaking, construction machinery and so on) is expected to rise again. CITIC Investment securities Zhou Jintao Research and Development department executive general manager of the classic two to inventory the logical order is the upstream price of the first drop in prices, lower middle-level manufacturing cost reduction advantage, and then consumption lagged behind. As China controls asset price bubbles, it seems to be looking to use structured investment demand to sustain growth, so China's medium-term stagflation is no longer a mystery.　　At the same time, the hesitation of policy largely excludes the possibility that two inventories can be quickly bottomed out, thus prolonging the time for economic adjustment, in which the systemic opportunities are delayed. Goldman Sachs Qiao the tone of China's economist policy has changed subtly, and the actual implementation of the policy may gradually begin to change. Further policy adjustments will depend on data performance, and Goldman Sachs expects macro data to drive further easing of policy. Further policy adjustments will continue to be a low-key easing of existing austerity measures, rather than the introduction of massive stimulus measures, particularly in the area of investment, as at the end of 2008.　　Goldman, which insists on optimism about China's growth potential, is expected to rebound to a trend of 10% per cent in the first quarter of 2011. Industrial Bank Lu County senior economist price status and industrial value added, retail, fixed asset investment, credit and other growth series of data are significantly lower than expected, together to show that the current economy faces the risk of overall accelerated decline. If the policy does not adjust in time to cushion, then the future economic downturn may be more than expected.　　Looking to the future of the policy, although we think it should be loose adjustment to cushion the momentum of economic decline, but it is estimated that by October 2010, macro-policy will remain dominant.China's export and real-estate activity growth is stronger than expected, according to macroeconomic data from July 2010, chief economist of UBS Securities, China. Concerns about a "hard landing" in China's economy are mainly in the light of the likely collapse in the real estate sector and a flash in the export recovery. But now, while export growth is slowing and real-estate figures are signalling a weaker future, the two engines of growth are doing better than expected, so don't expect government policy to relax.